Gawler Form – Horse Racing – 9 February 2022
Mid-week at Gawler. An interesting track that can give most runners a chance. One race that stands out. I would just note that Grey Vitality in the last won like a horse going places last start and the data suggests it would be a moral running similar today… but its never done anything like that previously and its hard to trust the horse comes out and repeats the run. I like to see some consistency of those runs when taking under $3 for a type like that.
Gawler Race 5 – BM-58 – 1200m
1. Betta Eddie: Horse did ALOT wrong last start at Oakbank when laid in onto other runners in the straight, twice, and still managed 2nd. Down in class down in distance here back to 1200m which is ideal. Ran a PuntingForm data rating of -0.9 last start. Three back ran -0.6 and four back 1.3. Data wise is a standout. Barrier is the only Hurdle. Horse is certainly better suited to rails runs. Concern is no change in gear.
2. Spelman: Maiden winner last prep. Failed to fire the two runs this start with 4.7 and 4.6 data ratings. Either wants more rain in the ground or a longer distance in this grade? Barrier helps.
3. Ammo Amor: Took a long time to break his maiden finally last prep. Failed first up in a Class 1 but had alot go wrong. Is better than what we saw first up but query over ability to improve and beat all these today. Data wise below this grade.
5. Grafton Avenue: 1600m back to 1200m and back down in class. Failed to see out the 1600m last start. Close 2nd in BM-54 over 1522 previous start and ran a 4.0 data rating. Best runs in the past have been over 1400+ is the concern. Will push forward from wide barrier and be on speed.
6. Shopster: Get back run on type. Found two decent tempo races two and three back in harder company at Morphettville when ran 1.7 and 1.8 data ratings. Last start at Gawler ran poorly but that was about 70 days ago. If speed i on has the ability ratings wise to run on.
7. Wounded Soldier: Failed to show much all prep and then last start down in class to a BM-54 over this distance ran on real well from the back. Better barrier today will position further forward. Speed off potentially suits as showed an actual turn of foot last start.
8. Yeelanna: Up in distance after an ‘okay’ run off a slow tempo last start at Murray Bridge. Went close the previous three runs and best data rating was a 3.8. Needs to improve again but looks the type if jumps better today.
9. Maid in Milan: Blinkers off today. First up behind a nice progressive type in Shellshocked ran a good 5th. Ran a 2.3 Puntingform rating which would hold up well here. Last start on speed faded very quickly in straight.
10. Bignota: Continues to push races with tempo close to benchmark which ensures a fairly run race for others to have chances. Last win was off a hotter tempo against runners who couldn’t go that fast. Expect them to set pace today. Has run 3.3 last start data wise.
Speed Map
Expecting Bignota to push a benchmark or stronger tempo with the apprentice claiming onboard.
Top Chances: Betta Eddie
High Chances: Wounded Soldier
Medium Chances: Bignota, Shopster
Low Chances: Spelman, Grafton Avenue, Yeelanna, Maid in Milan
Very Low Chances: Ammo Amor
Comments
Genuine tempo will be applied here giving data horses their chances to hit the numbers we want.
Betta Eddie has run 1.3, -0.6 and -0.9 puntingform data ratings three of past four races. These would all be good enough to beat every other horses best recent runs. It’s the clear standout and we are getting a very good price. Most importantly we are getting $2 the place!
Wounded Solider looks the main danger if the speed is slower than expected based on the 22.74 final 400m last start. It was the #1 final 400m on the day which included a 1000m race. It was also the fastest final 200m of the day.
Strategy
Back Betta Eddie Each-Way