Strathalbyn Form – Horse Racing – 16 February 2022
A little bit of rain around tonight and tomorrow in Adelaide so we should have a perfect track giving all runners a chance. Just the one standout race with two runners at decent odds that appeal.
Strathalbyn Race 5 – BM62 – 1100m
1. Equichunk: Won 4 of last 5 and will lead again. If left to roll around out front will run them VERY slowly around and be hard to get past. Beatable with speed on in the race and id bet against if map looks that way. Never broken 23.5 final 400m a query even off slow speed.
2. Baraconi: Won two easier races in a row in-country grades and then stepped up to city last start and came up a little short. The win at Bordertown saw a 22.5 final 400m which on a Soft 5 is big. Data wise best in past is a -1.6. 68-day break between runs suggests had a setback.
3. Jonquest: Lameness issues to end last prep. Moved stables between runs. Data wise -0.3 and 1.6 to end last prep were obviously good enough to be a key contender here. I hated the trial where had to be ridden out to stay with them and still couldn’t win over the 1000m!
4. Miss Mucinni: Ended last prep with a -0.4 Puntingform data run and trialled well before winning a Class 1 first up. Will need to improve off that run but obviously has talent.
5. Ye Hella: Data wise last 10 runs no better than 3.2 on the Puntingform Data. Doesn’t have a turn of foot and looks one that I can take on.
6. Magic Phantom: Failed on the heavy first up at Gawler. Last start in Saturday grade in harder company was well beaten 7th but the data was very sound recording a -3.0 on the Puntingform Data. Last prep ran -1.2, -1,2 and -2.0 so can repeat that effort. Was hooked back to last in previous race with no speed on. From barrier can position 2-3 back rail and will be a big shot late. Rain around helps chances.
7. Desired: Showed ability as a 2YO and ran 4L 9th in a G2 at Flemington. Put well back in grade this prep to win at Murray Bridge two back in a 40k race and then ran a good 3rd last start off a slow tempo with a final 400m of 22.48. Can settle one off 2/3 back and is a big chance.
8. Mighty Mabel: Not the worst runner here. Up in grade after finally winning a BM-54 last start. Data wise can place, can’t see the horse winning.
9. Salbris: Blinkers off. First up data wise ran well for a 2.5 overall when 3-wide the trip no cover. Ran 3rd in an open 3yo race two preps back at the gold coast. Has shown ability in the past to not dismiss 2nd up.
10. The Publikin: Didn’t go close data wise all last prep to whats needed here. Did get a win in Rest.58 grade 7 runs back but this is another level first up. Take on.
11. Love From Lucy: Hasn’t raced for a year. Best seen over staying distances. Not here first up.
Speed Map
No real fight for the lead here from any runners so Equichunk will be handed it unless Ye Hella goes forward and pushes tempo. Gives many runners like Desired and Magic Phantom from good gates the ability to bounce out and land midfield at worst.
Top Chances: Desired, Magic Phantom
High Chances: Baraconi, Miss Mucinni
Medium Chances: Equichunk, Salbris
Low Chances: Jonquest, Ye Hella
Very Low Chances: Mighty Mabel, The Publikin, Love From Lucy
Comments
Data wise on past results a 5.2 is needed to win this. Quite a few types come off runs that beat that. I can see it being similar to that though if speed isn’t set.
I want to take runners here that can sprint home strongly data-wise and will be no worse than midfield from the barriers… but also if the speeds on they have the ability to go that speed also – settle behind the leaders setting the pace and push through final 400m. I’ve found two I want to be on here and i’m pretty keen. Only see 4 main chances of winning.
Strategy
Back Desired
Back Magic Phantom