Morphetville Form – Horse Racing – 5 February 2022
Morpehtville Race 4 – 1250m – BM-68
1. Lady Dunmore: Won two of last three. Performs best when on speed. Has a solid final 400m sprint in the legs if they go slow out front but also can finish off well off a hot speed. Likely leader in a race devoid of speed runners.
2. Fighting McLaren: Won 3 of last 5. Goes back in class today after a close 2nd in better company last start. Handles distance and all track conditions. Will settle just off leaders and hit the line strong late. Only query is horses best has been shown at shorter distances.
3. Zoist: Go forward type of horse. First up and has a good first up record. Last prep ran a respectable 3rd at Sandown in harder company and the previous start over further than this (1400m) started $1.75 at course in a harder grade of race and won by 2.8L. Type to continue to improve with runs.
4. May Be Fate: Has looked backable the past two starts and has failed to fire a shot. Data wise he has regressed and needs to find another gear at this distance.
5. Ocean Reward: 3.5L winner at Gawler after being sent over to Caulfield the previous start. Heavy form is hard to translate up to this grade today. Best will feature here but even then may need to improve.
6. Cool Magnum: Won in this grade at a similar distance last start on the Heavy. 2/2 on heavy now. Back to dry surfaces has to be taken on based on 3 previous runs.
7. Gutsy: Last win was in a BM-58 last year. Not great past two starts. Three back would make you consider something on that run but not for me.
Speed Map
Only two types that could take up the running in Zoist (who will not want to push tempo at this distance) and Lady Dunmore who when leading last start didn’t but much speed on. Previous leading run at Morphetville only ran as expected. So not expecting a brutal tempo.
Top Chances: Lady Dunmore
High Chances: Fighting McLaren, Zoist
Medium Chances: Ocean Reward
Low Chances: May Be Fate, Cool Magnum
Very Low Chances: Gutsy
Comments
Expected winning rating from Puntingform is -1.0. Fighting McLaren comes into this data wise as having run -1.5 last start and -5.5 three starts back. Obviously has claims to the eye and on the data. The query for the horse is the lack of speed that will play against here.
With that in mine, Zoist will be on speed and a legitimate chance. First up though at this distance range he will have to show something we have never seen before as he has usually contested 1400m or more! He looks the main danger to my ratings favourite.
And that is Lady Dunmore. When she ran a solid tempo three back she recorded a winning run and a PF data of -5.0. Last start winning easy at Gawler she crawlled them along nearly 4L below benchmark to the 600m and recorded a 0.9 overall. She will be on speed, Price will control the tempo and the race is in his hands. She is the perfect type to start rolling from the 400m.
Strategy
Back Lady Dunmore
Save Zoist
Morphetville Race 6 – 1550m – BM68
1. Heir Of Tavistock: Natural leader who hasn’t won since early 2021. Constantly been finding one or two too good recently. Back in grade again today. Three back in BM-68 over 1400m ran a -3.5 and was beaten 0.3L. Will lead. Will push a tempo.
2. Our Deep Agenda: Blinkers off. Heavy 10 back to a Good 4/3 track today. Stays at the 1500m+ Distance. Key change is Gawler back to Morphetville. Last 3 runs at Gawler 4th, 4th, 3rd. Last two runs at Morphetville Parks 1st and 1st – both on good tracks. Barrier 1 ideal to take a sit off the hot tempo that will be set. Getting $10+ to find out!
3. Lake’s Folly: Non-winner. Started $3.6/$2.30/$4.20/$7 the past 4 runs and failed to find the line first. Constantly make excuses for this horse. Has previously met a hot tempo as well and founds others too good. Can win. Not for me at the price.
4. Crypto Currency: Didn’t show alot this prep until last star ton the Heavy track. Back to dry today. Best in the past seen over further than this and may want further is my query. Likes this track but wants it wet.
5. El Desperado: Two runs this prep and shown nothing. Previous prep suggests also that this horse should be 100s.
6. Frankel Star: Big step up in grade this one. Failed to get a win all prep in easier. Don’t see any changes here that suggest a big improvement. Take on.
7. Blah Blah Blah: Hasn’t won since a maiden win back in 2021. No real excuses this prep to not winning having only finished 3rd. Data wise nothing special either. Up in distance the only item that stands out to improvement chances.
8. Sky Call: Get back run on type performing best on dry tracks. Gets that today. Last prep went between two stables failing to fire much higher up in class. Been aimed more respectfully this prep. Does need to improve still up in class from an Oakbank run.
9. Conquest of Tears: Gear changes but maiden win three back over much further data wise was terrible. First up at this distance take on.
Speed Map
Heir of Tavistock will lead and is expected to push a fast tempo based on previous runs. Only attempt to go slow out front ended in the horse failing to place last start.
Top Chances: Our Deep Agenda
High Chances: Heir of Tavistock, Lake’s Folly, Sky Call
Medium Chances: Blah Blah Blah
Low Chances: Frankel Star
Very Low Chances: El Desperado, Conquest of Tears
Comments
Data wise PuntingForm suggests a -1.0 is required to win this on average. I’m expecting closer to -3.0.
Really a race in four to my numbers. Heir of Tavistock will be crawling the final 200m and will be able to be passed if good enough. Have to take on at the price. Did run -3.3 and -3.5 the two previous runs to last start pushing tempos.
Lake’s Folly is not the type to run past based on previous runs. Has had multiple chances at short prices and failed to show the ticker required. Data Wise the horse sits around 1 to -1.0 and has had a chance off hot tempos previously.
Sky Call is the up and comer that does need to improve but has the ability. Data wise last starts -0.8 was a career best data figure.
Our Deep Agenda is the value here. Getting $10+ the horse back to Dry which is critical and back to Morphetville. The distance is my only concern for the horse. Ideal barrier – we will know if we are in with a chance top of straight. Data wise the win off a hot tempo saw a -2.9.
Strategy
Back Our Deep Agenda
Morphetville Race 9 – 1400m – BM64
1. Yulong Justify: Horrible first two runs this prep and then posted data figures of a horse that should be heading back to contest in Melbourne venues next start. Instead, here we are. Ran a -4.3 the last run winning by 4.3 lengths in a 11 horse field. Tricky barrier but will settle just off the leaders and be ready to rock late.
2. Antarctic Ocean: Went to Camperdown last start and found a way to get beat over there. Data wise hasn’t been close to beating 4.9 recently. Take on.
3. Tullys Gold: Consistent type this prep but has failed to get a win in easier company at similar distances. Has recorded data between 2.3 to -1.4 range on averages. Can’t dismiss.
4. Koruto: Fairly beaten both starts this prep. Steps up in distance the key if anything for this runner. Previous prep BM-60 grade won over 1300 and 1200m. Data wise has to improve from the 0.3 first up.
5. Rialtor: Went back to Penola last start for a low prize money race and started $1.7 and won easy. Previous start lead all the way run down late in BM-58 recording a 0.3 data rating. Will be the one to run down 200m out.
6. Rubble: BM-54 winner four runs back. Failed to get close since in worse races. Last start only managed 2nd in an 11k prize money race at Kingscote. Has to improve significantly on last few ratings around 5.2 and 6.1.
7. Ambidazzle: BM-62 winner last start off a slow tempo ran over the top of an okay field. Data doesn’t do the run justice, was good. Best last prep in similar grade was a 0.5. Yet to record better than 5.3 this prep.
9. Gogolf Guru: Miaden winner first up this prep then BM-62 winner. Beaten a long way next start and then fairly beaten last start. Data wise no better than 7.4 recently is a query.
10. Kikuyu King: Maiden winner at Oakbank last start with a decent PF data rating of 2.4. Can improve on run.
11. Lady Pavli Chenko: Not gone close all prep since a Class 2 win. Gone back in grade here. Best data rating been 3.0 this prep. Back to dry suits.
12. Comfort Girl: First up here. Goes okay first up and on good tracks. Only ever won once from 11 starts. Two runs back over much further ran a -2.3 rating. Don’t dismiss.
Speed Map
Expecting Rialtor to lead them around here. If any early pressure at all we could see between -1 and -4 fast to the 600m and make it a true race. If no early pressure expect benchmark ratings to -2. Speed will be genuine at least.
Top Chances: Yulong Justify
High Chances: Tullys Gold, Comfort Girl
Medium Chances: Rialtor, Ambidazzle, Kikuyu King
Low Chances: Antarctic Ocean, Rubble, Gogolf Guru, Lady Pavli Chenko
Very Low Chances: None
Comments
Yulong Justify on data ratings is the best of the day. If Yulong can settle in the yard (query this prep) and present well, the horse just needs to slot in from the barrier and launch the final 400m to win if repeating last start.
Comfort Girl and Tullys Gold look the main dangers, but if everything goes to plan for Yulong Justify, i can’t see it getting beat.
Strategy
Back Yulong Justify