Cox Plate 2021 Preview

Moonee Valley Race 9 – 2040m – Group 1 Cox Plate

1. Zaaki: Hasn’t led in any start down under since arriving but has sat OSL with genuine speeds set. If Callsign Mav kicks up and the tempo isn’t true, may take over from the 1600m. Or they may just elect to lead. Will want tempo his own way. Failed to have a final 400m burst last start on the firm track at Caulfield. If rain arrives its a BIG bonus for his chances. Data wise has run the ratings required last prep and this prep to win. Won’t leave it to chance unlike those out the back.

2. Dalasan: Hasn’t won a race in forever but continues to place in Group 1 contests ‘almost’ winning. Doesn’t have the will for it but is a consistent genuine type. Ran Addeybb to 0.7L in the Queen Elizabeth last prep (slowly run)

4. Callsign Mav: Was lame early this week. Best seen on wetter surfaces. Won last two races which were Group 1’s. Only run at 2000m was 3rd in Group 2. Will go forward but to have best chance to place I’d think they try take a sit behind Zaaki and attempt the Pinker Pinker.

5. Mo’unga: Last in the Queen Elizabeth last prep. Won the Rosehill Guineas over 2000m beating 3Yos before that. 5th in the Epsom and 2nd to Incentivise before that over the 1600m. Handles all track conditions but would prefer Soft 7 or wetter to make it up to this class of race.

6. Verry Elleegant: genuine fail last start behind Incentivise and just didn’t run into the race. The data suggests it was solidly ran and horse may just not have been fit enough for it at that distance with a Cox Plate aim. Dry surface is the worry for this horse with rain potentially missing Friday night and only 2-6mm on the radar. The wetter it gets the higher her chances. Tongue tie goes on – may have choked down last start? Last 5 races 2000m-2400m in Group 1 class has won 3 and ran second in another.

7. Probabeel: Loves a dry firm track. It won’t be firm for the Cox Plate but if the forecast holds up it won’t be in the range of wet that she hates. Beat home Zaaki last start. Beat home Nonconformist who ran 2nd in the Caulfield Cup. Great barrier and will be in with her chance if handles The Valley. Last two runs she was beaten 4.5 and 12.6L but those were wet tracks.

8. State of Rest: Won a firm track Group 1 over in the USA. Rating was good enough to get a run here and has ‘Adelaide’ written all over it, but Adelaide also had much better prior form to one-run lead in like State of Rest does. Have i backed the horse at higher odds than on offer today? Yes. Would I take the price on offer today? No. If he travels well into the final 400m he will find big in the final 200m. You can view our international preview on this runner here. Comes here with a 116 Timeform Rating.

9. Anamoe: 49.5kg today – never missed a place in a Group 1 between 1200m and 1600m as a 2YO and 3YO. Up to 2000m is certainly a query. Handles genuine tempos which was a query going into the guineas. Handles all surface conditons also. Sat back last start off a suicidal tempo out front and reaped the reward. From barrier will have to sit back again you feel. Biggest asset is Anamoe got going 600m out to work into that Guineas and was finding still at the line.

10. Captivant: 49.5kg – Three wide with cover infront of Anamoe in the Guineas and also sustained a strong final 600m. G1 winner as a 2YO but genuinely looks a 2000m type. Barrier 1 will scoot forward and find a position early. Query is if the horse has the turn of foot if it’s not overly strongly run to match others here.

Top Chances: Zaaki
High Chances: Verry Elleegant, Anamoe
Medium Chances: Probabeel, State of Rest
Low Chances: Mo’unga, Dalasan, Captivant
Very Low Chances: Callsign Mav

Comments: It’s hard for me to look past Zaaki here from the gate. He has everything in his favour off a semi-final defeat. Think back to Nature Strip getting beaten at the shorts then winning The Everest. You can’t discount him. The same can be said for VE. She failed last start and you have to forgive it. The Tongue Tie going on is the big thing to notice. Does the rain come? The softer it gets the better her chances. Anamoe is the X factor. I want to pot the horse in any way or shape I can but the horse is a machine. The BIG query for me is the barrier. What do they do tactically? Sit last and make an early Adelaide-like move into it? Could be spotting Zaaki 4-5 lengths at the 600m which is a tough margin to eat up.

What it takes to win or place in the Cox Plate the past three years for international raider form to hold up on Timeform?

2020 Cox Plate – (123 Timeform Rating won the race – 122 prior to race for the horse)
1st – Sir Dragonet – Got a genuine tempo and soft track – previous best 122+ timeform on soft. All perfect conditions on day. Ran 123 to win.
2nd – Armory – Ran 122+ Timeform rating in previous G1 run and repeated that figure with 122 for second.
3rd – Russian Camelot – Best in past seen over slightly shorter distances. Ran to 121 Timeform Rating on the day. Had previously ran 124 in the Underwood on a soft track.

2019 Cox Plate – (124 Timeform Rating won the race – 125+ prior to race for the horse)
1st – Lys Gracieux – Won like a good thing going away from them. Tempo was solid. Run prior was 124 Timeform Rating. Ran 125+ on the day. Next start in Japan ran 128! Class horse.
2nd – Castelvecchio – Ran a clear career peak here of 124 Timeform rating. Won a G1 since running 120.
3rd – Te Akau Shark – Disappointed on the day – 2000m too far for horses best. Ran 119 on the day coming off a 126 Timeform rating prior and 126+ next start after that both those over 1600m.

2018 Cox Plate – (129+ Timeform Rating won the race – 134 prior to race for the horse)
1st – Winx – Didn’t need to run up to her best to win but had to improve on last start win. Did so impressively going up to 129+ Timeform Rating on the day from 123+ run prior. Just had to run to best to win.
2nd – Benbatl – Would have won any other year without Winx in the race. Came in with 129 Timeform rating and ran to 129! Ran 124 since. Was a career peak along with Dubai Turf win over 3l+ back in March of 2018.
3rd – Humidor – Beaten 4.75L into 3rd – you take that as an owner. Ran 122 Timeform on the day. Previous best 129 previous year behind Winx. Best since that 129 was this 123 and never improved. Previous best behind that was 125+. Peaked in 2017.

Author: Drew Patchell
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