Caulfield Cup 2021

The 2021 Caulfield Cup will be run and won at Caulfield Racecourse on 16 October 2021. There is a lot of rain on the radar with the potential to hit the track between now and the race so it will be interesting just how wet a track we are presented with on the day. I’m expecting a soft track on the day but unless all of the 35mm between now and the race lands, we aren’t expecting a total bog track. With a lack of international competition this year, we have the shortest price favourite in a while in Incentivise.

1. Homesman: Australian Cup winner last prep. Handles all surface types but better on firmer recently. Fairly beaten both starts this prep and needs to improve here. Gets the 2400m and will be on speed.
2. Incentivise: Won 8 races in a row beating some of the best horses recently putting in strong ratings along the way. Handles all types of surfaces but hasn’t been seen on a bog track is the only query. Clearly, the horse to beat. Will be on speed and hard to get past. Just keeps grinding away!
3. Explosive Jack: Australian Derby winner last prep. Fan fairly without getting close two runs lead-in. Hard to see the jump ratings wise to be a factor here. Take on.
4. The Chosen One: Got back and ran on well behind Delphi last start in the Herbert Power and also lost a plate. Gets the 2400m and should appreciate the wetter track… one to show some respect to.
5. Ocean Billy: Group 1 winner over 3200m in NZ. Three runs this prep beaten 3L 12L and 1.2L over unsuitable distances. Switched to Waller stable and is first up over 2400m. Has constantly run well over the distance and on wet tracks. Query on Bog tracks though.
6. Selino: Group 1 Sydney Cup winner last prep. Never won on a wet surface from 8 attempts. Out and out stayer. Ran fairly 4th in the Bart Cummings over 2520m. This is a step up though class-wise at the weights.
7. Persan: Won the Bart Cummings last year and 5th in the Melbourne Cup. Rather disappointing outside of that on runs this prep. Has won on Heavy tracks prior so is one that wants the rain.
8. Quick Thinker: Been up forever. Doesn’t win often. Chairsmans winner over 2600m on a soft track at Randwick back in the Autumn. Close in Newcastle Cup behind Great House – terrible in the Metrop. Only becomes a factor on a heavy bog based on the history of handling it.
9. Chapada: Ran a career peak last start behind Incentivise. Horse has always been best at 2000m on past performances and a query 2400m+ to find the staying in the legs to beat the best. Has to be considered a chance based on the Flemington run.
10. Delphi: The top international prospect for the Spring. Won the Herbert Power under a hold final 400m putting in two massive Puntingform data times that will measure up here. Timeform wise also measures up and sneaks in with just 52.5kg. Weighted to win. One run for a win on a soft track in the past. Only heavy track run as a 2YO failed so thats the query for the horse if the heavens open. Will need a good early ride by Oliver to get a spot if he doesn’t lead. Can lead and win.
11. Master of Wine: Non-winner who consistently runs well. Last start 3rd behind Grand Promenade was blocked for runs. Has won on heavy in the past and handles wet surfaces. Could be the sneaky one at odds if the heavens open and we get a bog.
12. Montefilla: Consistent type always there or thereabouts. Won multiple G1s. Metrop winner last start. Handles all surface types. Be awkward slotting in from 12 needs to get a nice spot in run.
13. Port Guillaume: Blinkers first time. Can’t hurt to try something new. G2 winner in France over distance. Came out to AUS and has shown nothing. handles wet surfaces and wants the distance. Was lame last start in the Bart Cummings – hard to back on a two-week turn around off lameness in a brutal race like this.
14. She’s Ideel: G3 winner two starts back of the Kingston Town Stakes over 2000m. Drew a bad gate last start and went back in the Metrop and paid the price – made up ground okay just too far back. Barrier 5 ideal today. Blinkers go back on. Loves it wet.
15. Young Werther: Ideal barrier draw to sit just off the pace and come into it at the right time. Last start was huge 2nd up behind Incentivise. 3rd in the Derby two preps back. Last prep a close 2nd in the Derby behind Explosive Jack. Only ever won a maiden – horse finds ways to lose? Weighted not ideally against these but have to respect.
16. Nonconformist: Got the win over Delphi two back over the 2000m and then last start flew from the back to beat the Cox Plate favourite and to get nosed out by multiple G1 winner Probabeel. Solid lead-in for a good horse. Has handled soft tracks in the past but best seen on firmer. Has to be respected down at the 51.5kg here but the barrier isn’t ideal and will need a 10/10 ride from Williams to get a good spot in running.
17. Duais: Won a slowly run poor rating Coongy to get a run here. Never shown anything ratings wise to get a place in this field. Yes won a G1 in QLD 3YOF and placed in the Aus Oaks but this is much harder. Take on.
18. Charms Star: Best showing ever last start in the Metrop but still beaten nearly 3 lengths. G1 placed in NZ over this trip and distance. Ran 2nd in the QLD Oaks behind Duais. Not the worst horse here but hard to see where the improvement comes.
19. Great House: First emergency. Ran respectfully 5th in the Metrop. Much better barrier today if gets a run. G3 Newcastle Cup winner. Handles wet surfaces. Better than some in the field today.
20. Constantinople: Terrible in the Coongy. Not suited by the tempo but even so just poor. Hasn’t shown anything last two preps. Take on.

Expected Speed
Genuine tempo – this will be a fast-run Caulfield Cup. The likes of Incentivise, Delphi, Persan, Quick Thinker and Homesman all expected to be on speed pushing the tempo. Don’t be surprised if they try steal a mid-race slow down before pumping it up from the 1000m.

Top Chances: Incentivise, Delphi
High Chances: Montefilla, She’s Ideel, Master of Wine, Nonconformist
Medium Chances: The Chosen One, Homesman, Chapada, Young Werther
Low Chances: Explosive Jack, Ocean Billy, Selino, Persan, Charms Star, Great House
Very Low Chances: Quick Thinker, Port Guillaume, Constantinople

Comments: Incentivise has won 8 straight and is in a league of his own at this point. He will run a genuine tempo and be the one you have to get past. If it’s a heavy bog track you don’t want to be taking the price on offer. If its good to soft 7 then the horse should be the clear odds on favourite. Delphi is the main danger – we saw last start what the horse can do and while the horse will be better suited to 3200m, he can be a factor here over the 2400m. He can also lead and win.

There are a number of chances outside of that. She’s Ideel is the one at a good price I think is the most suited if the rain comes and comes and we get a bog. The horse maps well and will be there in the finish on a bog. Master of Wine also can’t be counted out on a bog track. Montefilla and Nonconformist are both obvious dangers but I’m willing to take them on at the prices available.