International Raider Profile: Sheraz

Last seen winning in style over 3000m in France on the 21st of June 2021, Sheraz has snuck under the radar of most as a Melbourne Cup runner.

Sheraz rated 114+ for the dominant 4.5L victory last start on a Good to Soft surface and has previously rated 114+ in Group 3 company when running 2nd behind Skazino back in May.

You can see the victory at the following link where you will need to register for an account first – https://www.france-galop.com/en/racing/replays?replays_date=20210625

As you see by the replay, the big + from Timeform is because the horse was held onto for a long way and hardly required pushing out to win.

This IS a horse that will stay. This IS a horse that will handle a wet surface.

What it takes to win or place in the Melbourne Cup the past three years?

2020 Melbourne Cup – (120 Timeform Rating won the race – 120 prior to race for the horse)
1st – Twilight Payment – Came out to Melbourne with a 120 Timeform rating over 2800m on record. Only got 55.5kg and ran another 120 Timeform rating to win!
2nd – Tiger Moth – 52.5kg – Ran a 118+ Timeform Rating on lead-in. Measured up with a 122 career peak and still found one too good with the low weight.
3rd – Prince of Arran – Career peak of 118 coming in and with 54.5kg ran 117+ storming home late.

2019 Melbourne Cup – (117 Timeform Rating won the race – 117 prior to race for the horse)
1st – Vow and Declare – Got in with as low weight down 5kg from the Caulfield cup with just 52kg. Won a packed finish slowly run Melb Cup. Timeform rating 117 leading in and matched it.
2nd – Prince of Arran – Ran a 117 Timeform rating in the Geelong Cup and got in with 54kg. Only ran a 115 Timeform Rating, below his 118 best.
3rd – Il Paradiso – Lightweight 3YO with 52.5kg. Ran huge from an impossible position in a race with no speed on. Had ran 119 on lead in prep. Ran 122 Timeform Rating.

2018 Melbourne Cup – (124 Timeform Rating won the race – 124+ prior to race for the horse)
1st – Cross Counter – Genuine tempo on in the race setup perfectly Cross Counter with just 51kg. Had previous ran 124+ Timeform Rating at Goodwood over 2400m. Matched it at 3200m ridden cold.
2nd – Marmelo – On lead-in had run 120 Timeform Rating. Hasn’t gone beyond that since apart from 123 in this race with 55kg. #unlucky in race.
3rd – Prince of Arran – Ran career peak of 118 on lead in run. Got in with just 53kg but 3 days between runs only ran 115 off the hot tempo.

As you will note, most 3YOs have to perform a little higher Timeform Rating wise due to the scales they are given. An older horse with the same weight – say 52.5kg – will have to run a few points less on the TF Rating.

What are Sheraz’s chances in the Melbourne Cup?

Untapped ability and a past of staying strongly off solid tempos has Sheraz one to consider for the first Tuesday in November. If you are to simply rate the horse on the last start effort over 3000m then you have to consider the ability of Sheraz to be that, based on weights, to have a big chance in the race. If Sheraz gets the win in the Bart Cummings on Saturday, the horse will get no more than 52.5kg in the race. With that rating and that weight, without any improvement, Sheraz will be finishing top 6 in the race. With improvement and a soft surface on the day, Sheraz could move to favourite.

Author: Drew Patchell
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