Caulfield Cup 2023 Form
The Caulfield Cup signals the start of the real Spring racing carnival in my mind down in Victoria. We really get to see what is under the hood of all the internationals with core goals of the Cox Plate or Melbourne Cup. In recent years, the goal was to find a horse with a Timeform rating higher than 117 that is well enough weighted and maps well in the race. Durston blew that all away last year with the lowest Timeform rating to win the race this century. Before we get into the form, let’s see what it actually takes to win the Caulfield Cup on the Timeform ratings scale and then relate it to the form.
What it takes to win or place in the Caulfield Cup the past five years for international raider form to hold up on Timeform?
2022 Caulfield Cup – (110 Timeform Rating won the race – 109 prior to race for the horse)
1st – Durston – 110 Timeform Rating (previous best 109). Lowest Timeform rating winner in the past decade. Weighted to only need to run to his best to be competitive. Previous start in Metrop was a career best by 5 rating points so no real surprise to see an additional gain in ratings. Only had to carry 51.5kg, lowest since Master O’Reilly in 2007 with 50.5kg.
2nd – Gold Trip – 123 Timeform Rating (previous best 122). Ran to a career peak and ran to 125 Timeform Rating to win the Melbourne Cup (119 in the Cox Plate when unlucky in running). Fallen off a cliff since in the Autumn. Looked the class of the race and it showed. Unlucky to run into Durston on the day.
3rd – Knights Order – 117 Timeform Rating (previous best 117). Consistent type that seems ot find a few too good but always be in a finish. Ran to his mark once again. Has since gone to 118 but that is his absolute limit it seems. Another import that came out to Australia with ratings around the 90+ mark and improved to 110+ marks for the Waterhouse stable.
2021 Caulfield Cup – (129 Timeform Rating won the race – 124 prior to race for the horse)
1st – Incentivise – 129 Timeform Rating (previous best 124). Blew the field away going to a new peak. Regressed back to 121 up to 3200m next start in the Melbourne Cup. Looked a moral going into the race and blew them away. Was set for this race for sure. Smashed a poor field in hindsight.
2nd – Nonconformist – 115 Timeform Rating (previous best 119). Had the Spring of his career running to two career peaks well beyond what he had shown in the past. Only once went close to this again a year later. If had run 119 on the way would have been close to Incentivise but still got done in. Was well weighted.
3rd – Persan – 114 Timeform Rating (previous best 110). Not often you can run 3rd in a Caulfield Cup beaten 5 lengths running 114 Timeform Rating but Persan got away with it. Always been a plodder and even by his ratings he ran a blinder on the day to come third.
2020 Caulfield Cup – (120 Timeform Rating won the race – 123 prior to race for the horse)
1st – Verry Elleegant – 120 Timeform Rating (previous best 123). Weight and will got her home. Anthony Van Dyck had a look at her at the 100m and didn’t go past, she found another wind. Didn’t run to her best mark either but was just so well weighted and got the better run in transit to make the first move around the corner and cover less ground. Good horse, obviously – career peaked at 127 with Melbourne Cup win in 2021.
2nd – Anthony Van Dyck – 127 Timeform Rating (previous best 127). Had put in multiple 122 and above rating runs previously which had him well in the race even with such a hefty weight to carry. Got back ran on and just wouldn’t go past our champion mare. Broke down in the Melbourne Cup next start.
3rd – The Chosen One – 115 Timeform Rating (previous best 115). NZ bred campaigning in Australia for several seasons. Ran to his peak and ran a blinder in the race. Found two very good horses to go past him. Did progress slightly higher to 117 later in his career but never won a race after this third.
2019 Caulfield Cup – (122 Timeform Rating won the race – 119 prior to race for the horse)
1st – Mer de Glace – 122 Timeform Rating (previous best 119). The Japanese love sending their raiders and they love showing they are a step above us. Mer De Glace was a Group 3 winner coming over and loved the firm surfaces. Got a Good track on the day and that was all he needed to make ours look like second raters including the European internationals. When they send a good one, take note.
2nd – Vow and Declare – 117 Timeform Rating (previous best 117). Went on to run 117 in the Melbourne Cup to win it. Reversed the form on Mer De Glace on the wetter surface off a slower tempo (Mer De Glace only ran to 118 with a much higher weight). Run the Melbourne Cup over 200 times and he is no good thing to win more than 20 of them! Was set for the race beyond this CC distance.
3rd – Mirage Dancer – 121 Timeform Rating (previous best 120+). Career highlight run for the horse. Did win a Metro after this but didn’t go close in any other race around that and retired in 2021. Handicapper had him in this race with the weights, but he ran to his mark and was respectable for third.
2018 Caulfield Cup – (124 Timeform Rating won the race – 124 prior to race for the horse)
1st – Best Solution – 124 Timeform Rating (previous best 124). Unbelievable win when you watch the replay – missed the start, rushed early and still had a tank at the end. A sensational campaign by Godolphin going 119, 120, 124 and 124 in the Caulfield Cup. Missed the start again in the Melbourne Cup but ran a respectable 8th with a 116 Timeform rating. Ideal prep and ratings at the weights to win.
2nd – Homesman – 114 Timeform Rating (Previous best 114). Everyone including myself thought he was going to go straight past Best Solution he just didn’t have the will. Ran well below his best rating on the day… 2400m wasn’t him. He was at his very best at 2000m and won the 2021 Australian Cup running to 117 and 120 in the Underwood in 2019 over 1800m.
3rd – The Cliffsofmoher – 118 Timeform Rating (previous best 120). Ran to the handicapper’s expectations and was a valid third on the day. Deserved the weight. May have gone better on a firmer track. Fatal injury suffered next start in the Melbourne Cup.
Speed Map
There are ALOT of unknowns with the map this year. Firstly thanks to Punters for having an easy-to-use speed map tool that I used. I’m expecting Spirit Ridge and Goldman to be wanting to set the tempo out front while Hoo Ya Mal could also be in that same role if neither of them take it up… but i’m expecting Hoo Ya Mal to get run of the race. The Japanese runner Breakup will handy on speed as will West Wind Blows who from 2 won’t be 3-wide the trip today one would hope. Horses like Nonconformist and Right You Are could chance their arm and push forward to find a spot, along with Francesco and Okita Soushi if they feel it’s needed (i’m expecting both to not push more than midfield). The hard part to map is some of the internationals like Valiant King from 1 – could push up and be smoking a pipe or midfield. Without a Fight has the ability to sit midfield but could easily be off midfield. Where does Gold Trip get to in run? Do they go back to last and just hope for speed on and finish up over the top of them like in the Turnbull? Or do they chance their arm and go for a more forward spot with a focus on several of these internationals wanting a spot off midfield and not pushing hard for a off the pace spot? It’s one of the harder cups to map, so that’s what i’ve got for you!
1. Gold Trip (58.5kg) – Barrier 11
Jockey: Ben Melham
Timeform Rating: 125+
Analysis: Came out to Australia with 122 Timeform rating over 2400m. Last prep won the Melbourne Cup running to 125 Timeform rating. Disappointed in the Autumn but returned with a bang first up in the Turnbull with a 125+ Timeform Rating destroying a field filled with many runners here today. Was giving most of these weight in the Turnbull so it’s up to them to turn around the 4L+ defeat. Will get back. Will be getting put into the race 800m out. Will be flashing home from the top of the straight. Think Fawkner. Think Admire Rakti. Think Dunaden. If the speed isn’t on, this will be a cox plate barrier trial. If it’s on, he will look the winner at the 200m.
Expected Finishing Position: 1st
2. Without a Fight (55.5kg) – Barrier 7
Jockey: Mark Zahra
Timeform Rating: 121
Presented with Lameness in the left front leg Thursday morning
Analysis: Given a 121 Timeform rating for the QLD Autumn wins. Obviously goes best on dry tracks. The firmer the better for this guy. Ran to 116+ in the Underwood and unlike other horses had a break between runs leading up to this. Got back and ran home well in that Underwood but couldn’t get past a few rivals here like Soulcombe. Will appreciate the extra distance for sure here and barrier 7 means he doesn’t get stuck the rail and will be getting into the race around the turn, unlike in the Underwood. If weight doesn’t matter to him like weight doesn’t matter to a horse like Gold Trip, then he will be storming home on this dry track. If it does, horses like Soulcombe are better weighted today. Lameness issues a BIG negative.
Expected Finishing Position: 7th
3. Breakup (55kg) – Barrier 5
Jockey: Damien Lane
Timeform Rating: 117
Analysis: Best runs in the past have been over the 3200m and 2900m distances ratings wise. May get into a Melbourne Cup with 55.5kg and be a very good chance. Below this distance, best ratings Timeform is giving us is 114 for the Caulfield Cup. Looks to be wanting a firm track as most Japanese bred and gets it. Typically has looked like a type that doesn’t have the turn of foot of a typical Japanese winner of this race like Admire Ratki or Mer De Glace. The best thing for us would be this horse running a respectable 8th and drifting in the Melbourne Cup market! Video below the green cap settles midfield runs 4th.
Expected Finishing Position: 9th
4. Montefilia (54.5kg) – Barrier 9
Jockey: Blake Shinn
Timeform Rating: 117
Analysis: Best runs in the past (including a 122 on heavy) have been at 2000m. Last start ran down Hoo Ya Mal over the 1900m. Get back run on type that flashes home but doesn’t win often. Last start at 2400m was 2nd to Arapaho in the Tancred. Carried 55.5kg last year and ran 4th in this race from barrier 15 where went back to near last and ran on. Meets Gold Trip better at the weights and can settle a length or two more forward this year which could be the difference.
Expected Finishing Position: 6th
5. Francesco Guardi (54kg) – Barrier 15
Jockey: James McDonald
Timeform Rating: 118
Analysis: 111, 116 and 112 timeform ratings the last three runs this prep has him well below what’s required to win here. Has previously run MUCH better last prep and the Moonee Valley Gold Cup win was compelling. Horror barrier. One i’m keen to take on at the weights from the barrier on recent form. Has to improve stacks.
Expected Finishing Position: 10th
6. West Wind Blows (54kg) – Barrier 2
Jockey: Jamie Spencer
Timeform Rating: 118
Analysis: Massive run last start in the Turnbull given a pretty poor ride by Spencer wide the trip doing work and just kept on through the line for 2nd. Ran to 118 Timeform in the Turnbull which was a career peak. Previous three runs were all 117 Timeform from 2000m to 2400m. Barrier will allow him to jump and lead or settle just behind the speed. Slight concern if gets stuck the rails as this isn’t the type of horse you want held up, you want him finding momentum around the turn and pushing and pushing. Was taken to the sword by top level European horses Paddington and Emily UpJohn in the Coral Eclipse the previous start in a similar manner to what Gold Trip did last start.
Expected Finishing Position: 3rd
7. Nonconformist (53.5kg) – Barrier 19
Jockey: Harry Coffey
Timeform Rating: 117
Presented with lameness in the right hind Thursday morning
Analysis: Ran to 116 in the Underwood when made a run with Soulcombe and wasn’t disgraced. A few of the better runners here today outperformed him and ran home stronger. Barrier 19 would be a massive kick in the balls if he had them still. I can’t have him a top 10 chance from this barrier. They will have to test their luck going back to last or pushing forward. I don’t think the horse can win or even place from last so push forward and chance your hand son. 3-wide is better than last in a field this size with this horse.
Expected Finish Position: 15th
8. Soulcombe (53.5kg) – Barrier 6
Jockey: Craig Williams
Timeform Rating: 119
Synthetic Hoof Filler FIRST TIME
Analysis: 99+ Timeform rating in the UK and came out to Australia. No Timeform rating for the first two runs in Australia but the last two on local ratings were much better when running 119 Timeform in the Underwood and 116 in the Turnbull. Expect the horse to improve up to the 2400m. Barrier 6 means he can sit a couple lengths better than a wide barrier which is ideal for Craig onboard. Will be peeling out at the top of the turn and letting loose. Videos below show fresh speed in the underwood at top momentum and then last start in Underwood held up at the 300m mark and had to go through gears a little too late. Ran the fastest final 200m of the Turnbull (Gold Trip was pulled up to be fair final 50m) showing the horse wants further and was only just getting started going through the gears. Feet issue with synthetic hoof filler going on a concern.
Expected Finishing Position: 4th
9. Duke De Sessa (53kg) – Barrier 14
Jockey: John Allen
Timeform Rating: 115
Ear Muffs (Pre-Race Only) OFF FIRST TIME, Tongue Tie FIRST TIME.
Analysis: Poorly weighted for the Caulfield Cup based on International runs and ratings. Last two runs have seen him show absolutely nothing that could have me backing him here today even up to the 2400m. 109 and 110 Timeform ratings those last two runs. Even if he improves 5-6 points here (VERY DOUBTFUL), I don’t think it’s enough to win especially when factoring in Barrier 14. May actually just be wanting it wet and over this distance to find his best.
Expected Finishing Position: 11th
10. Hoo Ya Mal (53kg) – Barrier 8
Jockey: Tim Clark
Timeform Rating: 118
Analysis: Been reset this year on a Melbourne Cup path since coming out to Australia last year. Ratings wise the horse came out with a 118 peak at the 2400m so the Caulfield Cup with the low weight is ideal. Returned impressively at Randwick first up and then at the still unsuitable 1900m led until the final 50m when Montafilia ran Hoo Ya Mal down. The 118 Timeform rating was in the Cazoo Derby when Desert Crown (installed as Arc favourite post-race) won by 2 lengths. Hoo Ya Mal ran a very bold second beating Westover who just ran 2nd in the 2023 Arc. You missed the boat on the good price. We locked in $41/11 two weeks ago and it was freely available after the 2nd at Randwick. The current price is still value.
Expected Finishing Position: 2nd
11. Right You Are (53kg) – Barrier 13
Jockey: Mick Dee
Timeform Rating: 117
Analysis: Big old disappointment in the Turnbull last start but ran a very bold 5th in the Underwood prior when got a mid-field one off position and was able to make a run 700m out and grind to his absolute best. Got further back last start 3/4 wide the trip and didn’t handle the pressure speed. Showed he just wasn’t up to winning a race of this level with any speed in it. Barrier makes it tough to win this unless they take their chances early and try make a move forward.
Expected Finishing Position: 13th
12. Emissary (52kg) – Barrier 4
Jockey: Jye Mcneil
Timeform Rating: 115
Consistent type at distances. Surprised a few last year with the Geelong Group 3 win over 2400m running to 115. Weighted super well in the Melbourne Cup only had to run to 109 to grab 2nd in what ended up being a poor race outside of the winner in reality. Kah jumps off. Was okay in the Naturalism but then last start terrible. Hard to see this runner placing. Barrier is the saving grace for an economical run.
Expected Finishing Position: 15th
13. Goldman (52kg) – Barrier 18
Jockey: Linda Meech
Timeform Rating: UNKNOWN
Blinkers OFF FIRST TIME
Analysis: Here is our speed element in the race! Tried to take a sit last start and hated it. Roy Higgins winner in the Autumn and ran well but since then has been average to horrible. Barrier 18, will go forward and push the speed! Yes, he did beat Soulcombe easily in that race. They seem to have gone the opposite directions since.
Expected Finishing Position: 14th
14. Okita Soushi (51.5kg) – Barrier 12
Jockey: Kieran McEvoy
Timeform Rating: 115
Analysis: Grinder type. Wants the speed on and with 51.5kg he will be there in the finish. His win in the Duke of Edinburgh was eye-catching. He will be getting back from the barrier and he would be anyway…. he will be off the rail which is important and making a move from potentially 800m out 3/4 wide and getting into the race. He will see out the distance and is weighted to win. One of the big chances from the internationals. We backed him in the all-in markets when he was getting on the plane at $101/26… so fingers crossed he runs a race! We wanted a strongly run race and we should get it. We wanted a firm track and we are getting it. Durston won last year running to 110 Timeform rating with 51.5kg. He can obviously run to this and beyond.
Expected Finishing Position: 5th
15. Fame (51kg) – Barrier 16
Jockey: Craig Newitt
Timeform Rating: 111
Analysis: Not alot to tell about this horse. QLD Derby 2nd behind a decent type in Kovalica. Smashed by several horses in this in the WFA G2 next start over 2200m. Get back run on type will settle near last from 16. Lead in runs were strange compared to most in the race with a 9th at Sandown over 1800m. I have to take the horse on. If it wins, so be it. I can’t see it. Would be a Moody masterclass to produce this.
Expected Finishing Position: 17th
16. Bois D’Argent (50.5kg) – Barrier 3
Jockey: Winona Costin
Timeform Rating: 116
Analysis: Has mainly been kept to Listed grade races in Australia since arriving. The Timeform rating of 116 is overly inflated in my humble opinion. Beaten 6L in the Metrop. Beaten 3L in the Newcastle Cup. Barrier 3 obviously means they can try settle more forward, but this is a horse i can’t see settling better than 4-5 back the rail. I can’t have it. Good luck to them if they pull this off, congrats.
Expected Finishing Position: 18th
17. Spirit Ridge (50.5kg) – Barrier 10
Jockey: Dean Yendall
Timeform Rating: 115
Analysis: Close 2nd in the Metrop behind Just Fine. Ran a career topping 115 on the day. Previously in 2021 ran to 115 in the Tancred over this distance as well when Sir Dragonet smashed them all! They put a gap on the rest of the field which included a few handy types like Cleveland. Barrier 10, no weight, will be going forward, pushing tempo and will be there at the finish. Looks well over the odds.
Expected Finishing Position: 8th
18. Valiant King (50kg) – Barrier 1
Jockey: Jamie Kah
Timeform Rating: 113
Winkers FIRST TIME.
Analysis: 3YO Colt. Obviously has to continue improving especially when he can’t win a Group 3 over in the UK, but he could surprise us this prep in Australia. Stable felt may need another year like Soulcombe to come on. He ran the Melbourne Cup favourite Vauban to 1.5 lengths over 2400m. Best runs have been on wetter tracks. Will get back to midfieldish from the inside barrier and try his chances. Will see out the distance.
Expected Finishing Position: 12th
19. United Nations (50kg) – Barrier 17
Jockey: Hefel
Timeform Rating: 109p
Emergency in the race
Analysis: Came out to Australia in 2022 with a 109p rating. 5 runs for 0 wins to date. Ran a respectable third in the 2500m listed race in mid-September behind Mostly Cloudy. Last start had the chance to win but Military Mission went right past him at Caulfield in the Herbert Power. Won’t be finishing last but won’t be winning this.
Expected Finishing Position: 16th
Confidence Levels
Top Chances: Gold Trip, Hoo Ya Mal
Very High Chances: West Wind Blows, Soulcombe, Okita Soushi
High Chances: Montefilia, Without a Fight, Spirit Ridge
Medium Chances: Breakup, Francesco Guardi, Duke De Sessa, Valiant King
Low Chances: Right You Are, Goldman
Very Low Chances: Emissary, Fame, Bois D’Argent, United Nations
Race Summary
There are more than enough runners looking to push forward to ensure a genuine tempo in the first 600m. We may see a mid-race slowdown unless Spirit Ridge is out and running them along, but expect it to be a fair average tempo throughout. Horses will start making moves early from the top of the back straight with 900m to go. We will see a genuine test and no sit-and-sprint. If you are stuck 4 back the rail at the 500m good luck to you getting a run! Expect to see those fanning into the race out wide flashing home late. Can a front-runner like Hoo Ya Mal or West Wind Blows win it from the front? Or will the class of Gold Trip prevail with a thumping run from the back? Time will tell. Good luck punters!