Caulfield Cup 2023 – International Nominations

The nominations are in for the 2023 Caulfield Cup and Drew Patchell has taken a look at what it takes to win the Caulfield Cup according to the Timeform ratings and also looked at each individual international runner nominated for the race.

What it takes to win or place in the Caulfield Cup the past five years for international raider form to hold up on Timeform?

2022 Caulfield Cup – (110 Timeform Rating won the race – 109 prior to race for the horse)
1st – Durston – 110 Timeform Rating (previous best 109). Lowest Timeform rating winner in the past decade. Weighted to only need to run to his best to be competitive. Previous start in Metrop was a career best by 5 rating points so no real surprise to see an additional gain in ratings. Only had to carry 51.5kg, lowest since Master O’Reilly in 2007 with 50.5kg.
2nd – Gold Trip – 123 Timeform Rating (previous best 122). Ran to a career peak and ran to 125 Timeform Rating to win the Melbourne Cup (119 in the Cox Plate when unlucky in running). Fallen off a cliff since in the Autumn. Looked the class of the race and it showed. Unlucky to run into Durston on the day.
3rd – Knights Order – 117 Timeform Rating (previous best 117). Consistent type that seems ot find a few too good but always be in a finish. Ran to his mark once again. Has since gone to 118 but that is his absolute limit it seems. Another import that came out to Australia with ratings around the 90+ mark and improved to 110+ marks for the Waterhouse stable. 

2021 Caulfield Cup – (129 Timeform Rating won the race – 124 prior to race for the horse)
1st – Incentivise – 129 Timeform Rating (previous best 124). Blew the field away going to a new peak. Regressed back to 121 up to 3200m next start in the Melbourne Cup. Looked a moral going into the race and blew them away. Was set for this race for sure. Smashed a poor field in hindsight.
2nd – Nonconformist – 115 Timeform Rating (previous best 119). Had the Spring of his career running to two career peaks well beyond what he had shown in the past. Only once went close to this again a year later. If had run 119 on the way would have been close to Incentivise but still got done in. Was well weighted.
3rd – Persan – 114 Timeform Rating (previous best 110). Not often you can run 3rd in a Caulfield Cup beaten 5 lengths running 114 Timeform Rating but Persan got away with it. Always been a plodder and even by his ratings he ran a blinder on the day to come third. 

2020 Caulfield Cup – (120 Timeform Rating won the race – 123 prior to race for the horse)
1st – Verry Elleegant – 120 Timeform Rating (previous best 123). Weight and will got her home. Anthony Van Dyck had a look at her at the 100m and didn’t go past, she found another wind. Didn’t run to her best mark either but was just so well weighted and got the better run in transit to make the first move around the corner and cover less ground. Good horse, obviously – career peaked at 127 with Melbourne Cup win in 2021.
2nd – Anthony Van Dyck – 127 Timeform Rating (previous best 127). Had put in multiple 122 and above rating runs previously which had him well in the race even with such a hefty weight to carry. Got back ran on and just wouldn’t go past our champion mare. Broke down in the Melbourne Cup next start.
3rd – The Chosen One – 115 Timeform Rating (previous best 115). NZ bred campaigning in Australia for several seasons. Ran to his peak and ran a blinder in the race. Found two very good horses to go past him. Did progress slightly higher to 117 later in his career but never won a race after this third. 

2019 Caulfield Cup – (122 Timeform Rating won the race – 119 prior to race for the horse)
1st – Mer de Glace – 122 Timeform Rating (previous best 119). The Japanese love sending their raiders and they love showing they are a step above us. Mer De Glace was a Group 3 winner coming over and loved the firm surfaces. Got a Good track on the day and that was all he needed to make ours look like second raters including the European internationals. When they send a good one, take note.
2nd – Vow and Declare – 117 Timeform Rating (previous best 117). Went on to run 117 in the Melbourne Cup to win it. Reversed the form on Mer De Glace on the wetter surface off a slower tempo (Mer De Glace only ran to 118 with a much higher weight). Run the Melbourne Cup over 200 times and he is no good thing to win more than 20 of them! Was set for the race beyond this CC distance.
3rd – Mirage Dancer – 121 Timeform Rating (previous best 120+). Career highlight run for the horse. Did win a Metro after this but didn’t go close in any other race around that and retired in 2021. Handicapper had him in this race with the weights, but he ran to his mark and was respectable for third. 

2018 Caulfield Cup – (124 Timeform Rating won the race – 124 prior to race for the horse)
1st – Best Solution – 124 Timeform Rating (previous best 124). Unbelievable win when you watch the replay – missed the start, rushed early and still had a tank at the end. Sensational campaign by Godolphin going 119, 120, 124 and 124 in the Caulfield Cup. Missed the start again in the Melbourne Cup but ran a respectable 8th with a 116 Timeform rating. Ideal prep and ratings at the weights to win.
2nd – Homesman – 114 Timeform Rating (Previous best 114). Everyone including myself thought he was going to go straight past Best Solution he just didn’t have the will. Ran well below his best rating on the day… 2400m wasn’t him. He was at his very best at 2000m and won the 2021 Australian Cup running to 117 and 120 in the Underwood in 2019 over 1800m.
3rd – The Cliffsofmoher – 118 Timeform Rating (previous best 120). Ran to the handicappers expectations and was a valid third on the day. Deserved the weight. May have gone better on a firmer track. Fatal injury suffered next start in the Melbourne Cup.

Soulcombe – Timeform Rating 104+
(No rating provided for G3 Queen Eliz or Heatherly win)

Odds: $9.00
Recent Form: 1st Listed Heatherly 1700m (Video), 2nd Listed Roy Higgins 2600m
Trainer Says: Goal is the Melbourne Cup.
Analysis of Runner: Nothing like a sneaky 1700m smashing of a poor field to make a horse the Caulfield Cup and Melbourne Cup favourite. Steady on people it was a Listed race. Horse looks good, but let’s not get carried away. Owners will hope the handicapper doesn’t either. Will they risk a Caulfield Cup win for an extra 1-1.5kg in the Melbourne Cup? I would. Respect the horse 2400m and beyond ability. Didn’t even look set to smash them in the yard this week. Respect. 

Francesco Guardi – Timeform Rating 118

Odds: $10.00
Recent Form: 10th G1 Winx Stakes 1400m, 1st G2 Moonee Valley Cup 2500m
Trainer Says: Melbourne Cup is the key aim this spring.
Analysis of Runner: Two runs in Australia over 2500m and they have resulted in a 4L G2 victory over the 2500m distance and a close 2nd in Group 3 company at Flemington in the Bart Cummings. Handles Good or Heavy track conditions. The clear aim is the Melbourne Cup, but the son of Frankel will get in well enough at the weights to be a contender this year. Large storms and a heavy track could see him start favourite.

Without a Fight – Timeform Rating 116

Odds: $11
Recent Form: 1st, Group 3 Lord Mayor’s Cup, 1st Group 2 The Q22 (Video).
Trainer Says: Mackinnon + Cox Plate they thought back in Autumn due to his turn of foot but could easily pivot to CC/MC campaign. Unknown at this stage.
Analysis of Runner: Very good horse. Looked a chance to win the Melbourne Cup last year but the rain ruined any chance of that. Clearly a Good track horse. Does not find anywhere near his best on a soft track. Makes him easy to back on a good track and easy to forget on a wet track. Can’t include in any multis due to this alone. 

West Wind Blows – Timeform Rating 117

Odds: $12.00
Recent Form: 3rd Group 1 Coral-Eclipse (Video), 2nd Group 2 Hardwicke Stakes
Trainer’s Say: Most likely heading Turnbull into Caulfield Cup. Cox Plate seems a backup plan.
Analysis of Runner: Ran into some top level horses in Paddington and Emily Upjohn and was outmatched the final 200m by the class runners in the race but did beat home Dubai Honour who won the Group 1 Queen Elizabeth Stakes in the Autumn in Sydney. Beat some okay types home run prior in the Hardwicke including Deauville Legend. Winner of that race has since come out and ran only 5th in a Group 1. Consistent type that runs between 113 and 117 Timeform ratings the past two years. May get in with a respectable rating to contest and be a winning chance.

Breakup – Timeform Rating 117

Odds: $15.00
Recent Form: 12th Group 1 Takarazuka Kinen 2200m, 4th Group 1 Tenno Sho 3200m (Video)
Trainer Says: Running in Caulfield + Melbourne Cups
Analysis of Runner: Best runs in the past have been over the 3200m and 2900m distances ratings wise. May get into a Melbourne Cup with 55.5kg and be a very good chance. Below this distance, best ratings Timeform is giving us is 114. He would need to be very well-weighted to measure up and take the win here. Looks to be wanting a firm track as most Japanese bred. Unknown on softer. 

Hoo Ya Mal – Timeform Rating 118

Odds: $17
Recent Form: 12th Group 1 Melbourne Cup 3200m, 5th Group 2 Chelmsford 1600m (Video)
Trainer Says: The 2022 run was never going to be a win in the eyes of the trainer even prior to the race that was clear from interviews.
Analysis of Runner: Been reset set on a Melbourne Cup path since coming out to Australia last year. Ratings wise the horse than a 118 peak at the 2400m so the Caulfield Cup with a low enough weight (54kg) would be ideal here. Returned impressively at Randwick on the weekend whe never given a chance, held up and went through the line wanting the 2400m.

Israr – Timeform Rating 122

Odds: $34
Recent Form: 1st Group 2 Princess of Wales’s Stakes 2400m (Video), 2nd Listed Ebor Grand Cup Stakes 2800m
Trainer Says: Nothing has been stated in public from the trainer.
Analysis of Runner: Sensational type. Last start beat Adayar who ran to a poor rating but had previous run to 121+ (started $1.35 fav against Israr). Israr powered away and did it easy in the end. Haven’t exactly seen this horse tested but I liked what I saw. If we get confirmation the horse is coming out i’d be happy to take 20s even at 57kg. Reminds me a lot of Best Solution.

Just Fine – Timeform Rating 107

Odds: $21
Recent Form: 1st 0-95 Handicap Leicester, 1st BM94 Randwick (Video)
Trainer Says: Aiming at a Metro
Analysis of Runner: Most likely if they head towards a Melbourne Cup it is via a Metrop, so would be surprised to see them aim higher at a Caulfield Cup as well. Started prep early as well. 

Okita Soushi – Timeform Rating 115

Odds: $101
Recent Form: 3rd Group 3 Irish St Leger Trial 2800m, 1st Duke of Edinburgh Stakes 2400m
Trainer Says: 3-4 horses may come down – Okita Soushi mentioned.
Analysis of Runner: Being talked about as more of a Melbourne Cup type than Caulfield Cup. I really like what this horse did in the Duke of Edinburgh and at his ratings, he is a massive chance on a firm track to compete if comes out and competes in this race. He will get in well at the weights. Looks the clear missed horse at this point. Real Grinder Type. 

Rosscarbery – Timeform Rating 113

Odds: $201
Recent Form: 10th Yorkshire Oaks Group 1 2400m, 2nd Group 2 Curragh Cup 2800m (Video)
Trainer Says: Has not talked about the horse in any media in relation to Caulfield Cup.
Analysis of Runner: Ignore last start and base on three previous runs. Horse could get in with a low weight if they aim for a CC/MC and could actually be a chance in the race. Handles soft ground better than firm. If it rains, horse has 52.5kg, i’d be backing it. Ran 2nd to Emily Dickenson in the Curragh Cup and she came out since being Coltrane and running 2nd in that Group 1. Good form lines.

Deauville Legend – Timeform Rating 121

Odds: $21
Recent Form: 9th Group 1 King & Queen QIPCO Stakes, 4th Group 2 Hardwicke Stakes (Video)
Trainer’s Say: “It would be wonderful to win a Cox Plate or even a Melbourne Cup, but that will all depend on weight”.
Analysis of Runner: Started favourite last year in the Melbourne Cup coming off a 120+ Timeform rating in the Group 2 Voltigeur Stakes at York. Ran a career peak in the Melbourne Cup but that wasn’t enough to secure a win on the day with a massive rating by Gold Trip winning the strongly run race. Since then Deauville Legend has been a shell of his former self running 114+ in the Hardwicke and then falling back out of the race with 800m to go in the QIPCO. On previous ratings alone, he obviously has the potential to run well in a Caulfield Cup but on recent runs he won’t be well weighted.

Valiant King – Timeform Rating 113

Odds: $21
Recent Form: 2nd Group 3 Ballyroan Stakes (Video), 2nd 0-105 Ascot King George V Stakes
Trainer Says: “Might be a longer term prospect similar to Soulcombe, but expect him to come out”
Analysis of Runner: 3YO Colt so will get in well at the weights with the 113 Timeform Rating. Obviously has to continue improving especially when he can’t win a Group 3 over in the UK, but he could surprise and also start a good price. You at least know they are bringing this one out! 

Win Mighty – Timeform Rating 113

Odds: $21
Recent Form: 9th Group 2 Sapporo Kinen 2000m, 6th Group 2 Kyoto Kinen 2200m (Video)
Trainer Says: Nothing has been stated in public from the trainer.
Analysis of Runner: Unlike Breakup, no jockey is already tentatively booked. The less likely of the two to come out. Best run on form was in 2020 when 3rd in the Group 1 Japanese Oaks. Has just started her Spring campaign with a poor 9th over 2000m. 

My Prospero – Timeform Rating 125

Odds: $26
Recent Form: 2nd Group 2 York Stakes (Video), 4th Group 1 Prince of Wales’s Stakes
Trainer’s Say: “[Queen Elizabeth winner] Dubai Honour is already inked in to go back to Sydney next year, but we need two or three horses to go with him. Before then, I’ve put My Prospero in the Cox Plate and Caulfield Cup, and he has passed the preliminary veterinary inspections from Racing Victoria.”
Analysis of Runner: Ratings wise, he gets into this race as a top chance… but can he repeat those ratings? Ran 125 back in October of 2022 in the Champion Stakes over the Cox Plate distance, but has failed to run beyond 119 since. Obviously, if you look at his ratings he has progressed 114+ to 116 to 119 this prep suggesting his next run may be close to his career peak… but they are going to handicap him at the top of the weights off that 125 rating. May also want a touch of give in the ground to find his very best. If they confirm this horse is getting on the plane at any stage, i’m getting on at the prices. 

Duke De Sessa – Timeform Rating 114

Odds: $36
Recent Form: 10th Group 1 Memsie Stakes 1400m, 8th Group 1 Doncaster Mile (Video)
Trainer Says: Looking for the 2400-3200m but wants wet tracks.
Analysis of Runner: Absolutely sneaky horse perfectly set to perform his top rating races on soft tracks at 2400m+. I can’t back this far out and hope for rain, but if there is a 2 infront of the number on the day and it’s wet, i’m going to be piling in obviously. Will be very well weighted for the race. Can sit on the speed at these distances. 

Carini – Timeform Rating 101

Odds: $34
Recent Form: 3rd Caulfield BM84 1400m (Video), 2nd 2500m Listed Prix Vulcain
Trainer Says: Nothing has been stated in public from the trainer.
Analysis of Runner: Got his first look at the Australian tracks over the unsuitable 1400m last month and returned really well. Sprinted home from the back for 3rd and will step up in distance and class next start if heading towards this race. Ratings wise, best seen on softer tracks, but even so, he will have to improve between now and the Caulfield Cup to be a contender. 

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Pennyweka – Timeform Rating 111

Odds: $26
Recent Form: 1st G1 ATC Oaks, 1st G1 NZ Oaks
Trainer Says: Metro more ideal target for her. 4YO Mares don’t have a good CC record. Melb Cup not on radar.
Analysis of Runner: Liked what I saw from her last prep. Liked even more what i’m seeing from the trainer. Pennyweka will develop into a true G1 class 2400-3200m stayer over the next few years. This year may come up a little fast as they think as well. I’d give her a chance in the Metrop for sure!

Tower of London – Timeform Rating 114p

Odds: $26
Recent Form: 2nd Group 3 Bahrain Trophy 2600m, 1st Ulster Derby Handicap
Trainer Says: On path to Melbourne Cup and “he looks the pick of all ours”
Analysis of Runner: Main aim is the 3200m. Will they have a throw at the 2400m and get the wheels turning over? Probably based on the previous preps this stable have taken with horses coming out to Australia. Will be well-weighted as a 3YO Colt and if he can improve that 114p to 117 then he is an obvious Caulfield Cup chance. When the horse gets on the plane and we know they intend to contest this race, you have to take anything with a 2 infront of it (in double digits). 

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Saint George – Timeform Rating 114

Odds: $51
Recent Form: 3rd Group 3 Bahrain Trophy Stakes 2600m, 2nd Group 2 Queen’s Vase 2800m (Video)
Trainer Says: Joining Maher/Eustace yard. Lead up to Melb Cup via CC, GC or St Leger.
Analysis of Runner: Goal is the Melbourne Cup. Would be surprised if they run in the Caulfield Cup when easier options that won’t result in a larger handicap hit such as the Geelong Cup or St Leger are on the radar. He will be a menace in the Melbourne Cup – can win it. Don’t think he is anywhere near as good at 2000-2400m range.

Adelaide River – Timeform Rating 117

Odds: $34
Recent Form: 2nd Group 1 Grand Prix De Paris, 2nd Group 1 Irish Derby (Video)
Trainer’s Say: Nothing has been mentioned in public. Racing Victoria is expecting to get Adelaide River or Cairo to come out..
Analysis of Runner: 2022 form suggested he may just have been another number in the O’Brien yard. First two runs of 2023 didn’t suggest much had changed…. But when used as pacemaker in the Irish Derby ran a very bold 2nd. Led them around again in Paris and was caught in the later stages. May prefer a Cox Plate run 

Alfred Munnings – Timeform Rating 107

Odds: $41
Recent Form: 2nd Group 3 Desmond Stakes (Video), 2nd Group 3 Meld Stakes
Trainer’s Say: Nothing has been stated in public from the trainer.
Analysis of Runner: Raced on speed and hit the clear lead 400m out and looked to have the race in the bag in the Desmond Stakes, but found one far too good that went right past him. Three runs this prep coming off a long lay-off have been solid and progressive, but the Caulfield Cup is well beyond him at his current ratings and formlines. One to look past.

Broome – Timeform Rating 117

Odds: $101
Recent Form: 5th Group 2 Lonsdale Cup 3200m, 7th Group 1 Goodwood Cup 3200m
Trainer Says: Nothing has been stated in public from the trainer.
Analysis of Runner: Won in Meydan back in March running 117+. Wasn’t bad first run back in UK in May but three runs since have been poor ratings wise. I’d be surprised if they bring him out, but on ratings you have to consider him a chance if he runs to his best and gets in well at the weights. 

Changingoftheguard – Timeform Rating 116

Odds: $41
Recent Form: 3rd Group 2 Hardwicke Stakes 2400m (Video), 3rd Group 3 Ormonde Stakes 2600m
Trainer Says: Nothing has been stated in public from the trainer.
Analysis of Runner: Ryan Moore has taken the ride on this horse in most Group 3s but jumped off in Group 1s. Solid staying type on the up. If came out to Australia would be well suited to the Caulfield Cup as ratings may underrepresent his top.

Continuous – Timeform Rating 121

Odds: $51
Recent Form: 1st Group 2 Great Voltigeur Stakes 2200m (Video), 2nd Group 2 King Edward Trainer’s Say: Trainer hasn’t mentioned anything in public in relation to Continuous coming out.
Analysis of Runner: Bred to conquer the world. Out of a multiple G1 winning Japanese mare, covered by Galileo, Continuous has been seen handling all course conditions to date. King of Steel fairly toweled him up two starts back at Ascot after hitting the front far out in the straight. Last start went from 113 to 121 Timeform Rating. On the way up! Now $5 favourite for the Arc. Not expecting them to bring the horse out now.

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Greenland – Timeform Rating 110

Odds: $101
Recent Form: 4th Group 2 Prix Guillaume D’Ornano, 1st Group 3 Prix Greffulhe (Video)
Trainer’s Say: Nothing has been said in the media in relation to this runner.
Analysis of Runner: Looked a progressive type 2nd up when winning the Group 3 over in France by a short head on a soft track and was immediately sent out to the paddock. Returned earlier this month at Deauville and was well in the race from the turn but was one-paced at best up in company. Ran a career best 110 Timeform rating on the day as well. 

Luxembourg – Timeform Rating 126

Odds: $51
Recent Form: 4th Group 1 QIPCO Stakes, 2nd Group 1 Price of Wales’s Stakes, 1st Group 1 Gold Cup (Video)
Trainer’s Say: Has not talked about the horse in any media in relation to Caulfield Cup.
Analysis of Runner: Class horse. Alot of horses described in our preview need to improve. He simply needs to run to his best if he comes out for the Cox Plate and he can win. Led them all in the Gold Cup earlier this year to win the Group 1 and record the 2nd 126 Timeform rating of his career in separate years. Tough as nails on his day. Best runs have been on Good and Soft tracks, so will handle any condition. Last start run in the QIPCO showed that he is most likely a 2000m horse this prep and his greatest advantage is leading on his own terms. Remember back just a year and he was a very unlucky run 7th in the Arc held up at multiple stages. If they send him out for a shot at the Cox Plate, you can’t ignore him.

Peking Opera – Timeform Rating 107

Odds: $101
Recent Form: 3rd Group 3 Ballyroan Stakes 2400m (Video), 7th Group 1 Grand Prix De Paris 2400m
Trainer Says: Has not talked about the horse in any media in relation to Caulfield Cup.
Analysis of Runner: Has not run beyond a 107 timeform rating. One i’m willing to take on at this stage even if the horse gets on a plane to come out. 

Point King – Timeform Rating 111

Odds: $101
Recent Form: 4th Group 3 Irish St Leger Trial 2800m, 8th 0-105 Ascot Handicap 2800m
Trainer Says: Has not talked about the horse in any media in relation to Caulfield Cup.
Analysis of Runner: 3 of last 4 runs have been VERY poor. Leopardsdown Group 3 2nd three back is the only decent run recently with a 111 timeform rating. Take on trust and even then I couldn’t back him in this race at this stage.

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Scampi – Timeform Rating 104

Odds: $101
Recent Form: 10th Ebor Handicap 2800m (Video), 1st Shergar Cup Challenge 2400m
Trainer Says: Wanted to come out for CC/MC if improved.
Analysis of Runner: Needs to continue improving. One to forget at this stage. Doubt it comes out after the Ebor run. 

Scriptwriter – Timeform Rating 114

Odds: $201
Recent Form: 8th Ebor Handicap 2800m, 2nd Group 3 Silver Cup Stakes 2800m
Trainer Says: Wants to come for MC tilt.
Analysis of Runner: Nice enough type since coming back from the Hurdles to flat. 114 Timeform rating over the 2800m at York has this horse well in the Melbourne Cup. Looking for distance, 2400m too short. 

St. Vincent’s Garden – Timeform Rating 103

Odds: $101
Recent Form: 3rd Vinnie Roe Stakes Listed 2800m, 6th Group 2 Queen’s Vase 2800m
Trainer Says: Has not talked about the horse in any media in relation to Caulfield Cup.
Analysis of Runner: Lightly raced type. Stayer for sure. Hasn’t shown his very best to suggest he could compete at this level at this distance. May be better as a 4-5yo.