Cox Plate 2023 – International Nominations
International runners have dominated the Cox Plate in recent years winning three of the past four races. Anamoe was able to get the job done last month but El Bodegon did go close off a low Timeform rating beaten half a length on the day. The nominations are in for the 2023 Cox Plate and Drew Patchell has taken a look at what it takes to win the Cox Plate according to the Timeform ratings and also looked at each individual international runner nominated for the race.
What it takes to win or place in the Cox Plate the past five years for international raider form to hold up on Timeform?
2022 Cox Plate – (126 Timeform Rating won the race – 125+ prior to race for the horse)
1st – Anamoe – Came into the race as the favourite and delivered with grace and class with a genuine tempo set that allowed the now-retired champion to extend cornering into the straight putting lengths on the main dangers. He ran a career peak 126 Timeform rating, ahead of three 125 timeform ratings, all of which were on Heavy or Soft track ratings.
2nd – I’m Thunderstruck – Ran 124+ Timeform rating to equal his best rating ever when running 2nd on a Heavy track in the Doncaster early in 2022, as well as the lead in run 124 beaten a neck behind Anamoe in the Might and Power Stakes.
3rd – El Bodegon – Ran 124 Timeform rating but had never gone above 115 (beaten 5 lengths in a French Group 1 (but beat Modern Games on that day and it was behind Vadeni who ran a close 2nd in the Arc since, so very good form lines). May have been under-represented in the ratings off this run.
2021 Cox Plate – (125 Timeform Rating won the race – 119 prior to race for the horse)
1st – State of Rest – Ran 125 – Came into the race with what was clearly a progressive profile winning a Group 1 on the lead in increasing his personal best timeform rating from 109 to 119. So no surprise to see it improve to 125 here. Had to improve to beat off Anamoe.
2nd – Anamoe – Ran 122 – Previous ran 123 Timeform Rating and was still improving when you consider he ran 125 or above 4 times after this run. Bit unlucky to not win on the day.
3rd – Very Elleegant – Ran 116 – Previously ran 123 on lead-in. Ran 127 Timeform rating in the Melbourne Cup after this to win. Obviously, that was the goal all along.
2020 Cox Plate – (123 Timeform Rating won the race – 122 prior to race for the horse)
1st – Sir Dragonet – Got a genuine tempo and soft track – previous best 122+ timeform on soft. All perfect conditions on day. Ran 123 to win.
2nd – Armory – Ran 122+ Timeform rating in previous G1 run and repeated that figure with 122 for second.
3rd – Russian Camelot – Best in past seen over slightly shorter distances. Ran to 121 Timeform Rating on the day. Had previously ran 124 in the Underwood on a soft track.
2019 Cox Plate – (124 Timeform Rating won the race – 125+ prior to race for the horse)
1st – Lys Gracieux – Won like a good thing going away from them. Tempo was solid. Run prior was 124 Timeform Rating. Ran 125+ on the day. Next start in Japan ran 128! Class horse.
2nd – Castelvecchio – Ran a clear career peak here of 124 Timeform rating. Won a G1 since running 120.
3rd – Te Akau Shark – Disappointed on the day – 2000m too far for horses best. Ran 119 on the day coming off a 126 Timeform rating prior and 126+ next start after that both those over 1600m.
2018 Cox Plate – (129+ Timeform Rating won the race – 134 prior to race for the horse)
1st – Winx – Didn’t need to run up to her best to win but had to improve on last start win. Did so impressively going up to 129+ Timeform Rating on the day from 123+ run prior. Just had to run to best to win.
2nd – Benbatl – Would have won any other year without Winx in the race. Came in with 129 Timeform rating and ran to 129! Ran 124 since. Was a career peak along with Dubai Turf win over 3l+ back in March of 2018.
3rd – Humidor – Beaten 4.75L into 3rd – you take that as an owner. Ran 122 Timeform on the day. Previous best 129 previous year behind Winx. Best since that 129 was this 123 and never improved. Previous best behind that was 125+. Peaked in 2017.
Romantic Warrior – Timeform Rating 127
Odds: $4.20
Recent Form: 2nd Group 1 Champions & Chater Cup, 1st QEII Cup
Analysis of Runner: Been running into some world-class types like Golden Sixty and rightfully running second. Came back in April and found a race without the champion but still bested a world-class field that included several Japanese raiders over the Cox Plate distance. Beaten a neck last start by Russian Emperor over the Caulfield Cup distance and ran his lowest rating in the past 7 runs with a 122+. On speed type. Puts himself into the race. Handles a turn similar to that at Moonee Valley very well. Clear top chance if he makes the trip.
Trainer’s Say: Intention to come to Australia with Romanic Warrior. Targeting the Turnbull into the Cox Plate.
Above The Curve – Timeform Rating 118
Odds: $51
Recent Form: 3rd Group 1 Prix Jean Romanet (Video), 2nd Group 1 Nassau Stakes
Analysis of Runner: Classy front-running type that has been leading or sitting outside the leader in recent Group 1 outings. Placed her last three attempts in Group 1 class and was beaten under 2 lengths last start in France. Absolute grinder of a horse – looks gone a long way out but just keeps fighting. Requires a John Allen type of jockey to keep her going. Recent, consistent form suggests a run beyond 121 Timeform rating would be hard to realise without a change of scenery or track layout.
Trainer’s Say: Nothing has been said in the media in relation to this runner.
Adelaide River – Timeform Rating 117
Odds: $26
Recent Form: 2nd Group 1 Grand Prix De Paris, 2nd Group 1 Irish Derby (Video).
Analysis of Runner: 2022 form suggested he may just have been another number in the O’Brien yard. First two runs of 2023 didn’t suggest much had changed…. But when used as pacemaker in the Irish Derby ran a very bold 2nd. Led them around again in Paris and was caught in the later stages. Expect he can run well, will get a slot in the race if he comes and he will probably be a package deal to ensure a strong tempo for the likes of a Paddington if he was to come.
Trainer’s Say: Nothing has been mentioned in public. Racing Victoria is expecting to get Adelaide River or Cairo to come out.
Al Riffa – Timeform Rating 114
Odds: $15
Recent Form: 2nd Group 2 Prix Guillaume D’Ornano (Video), 2nd Group 3 Paddy Power International Stakes
Analysis of Runner: Progressed from a maiden winner to a Group 1 winner on a Heavy track over 1400m in 2022 running a 114+ Timeform rating. Been seen twice since pushed straight up to 2000m which could be a mistake or a work of genius. Ran 108 to open the season in early July and progressed last start to 114 again. Next run you can expect he will put in an improved Timeform Rating – does it get him within arms reach of being considered an actual contender? We will find out.
Trainer’s Say: “He runs in Deauville this week, so again his autumn plans are yet to be decided.”
Alfred Munnings – Timeform Rating 107
Odds: $201
Recent Form: 2nd Group 3 Desmond Stakes (Video), 2nd Group 3 Meld Stakes
Analysis of Runner: Raced on speed and hit the clear lead 400m out and looked to have the race in the bag in the Desmond Stakes, but found one far too good that went right past him. Three runs this prep coming off a long lay-off have been solid and progressive, but the Cox Plate is well beyond him at his current ratings and formlines. One to look past.
Trainer’s Say: Nominated for race on 26 August. Will know more after that.
Buckaroo – Timeform Rating 117
Odds: $34
Recent Form: 3rd Listed Wolferton Stakes, 4th Group 1 Prix D’Ispahan (Video)
Analysis of Runner: Races on speed most the time. Hit the lead 400m out in France two runs back in Group 1 company and stuck on strongly to beaten under a length in a 5-way go. Beaten favourite back in listed company at Ascot last start but not disgraced and ran a similar 117 Timeform rating. Previous start in April ran to 116 also… very consistent type that will run to the mark, might be better suited to a turning track and could advance a few more timeform rating points this season.
Trainer’s Say: Most likely heading Turnbull into Caulfield Cup. Cox Plate seems like a backup plan.
Cairo – Timeform Rating 112
Odds: $34
Recent Form: 2nd Group 1 Irish 2000 Guineas (Video)
Analysis of Runner: Paddington gave him windburn in the 2000 Guineas but that was at a mile and Cairo was closing in the later stages looking the type with improvement still to come. The 112 rating was a massive jump from his previous 105 best back in 2022 and he hasn’t been seen since this run back in May. Started a short favourite when sent to Dubai previously for a run on the dirty and failed to make any impression in that race. Query over the horse and travelling. If you like Paddington then you have the consider Cairo a sneaky up-and-comer for the stable on the re-apperance. The stable also don’t send horses over to Dubai if they don’t consider them a nice type.
Trainer’s Say: Nothing has been mentioned in public. Racing Victoria is expecting to get Adelaide River or Cairo to come out.
Continuous – Timeform Rating 113
Odds: $34
Recent Form: 2nd Group 2 King Edward VII Stakes (Video), 8th Group 1 Prix Du Jockey Club
Analysis of Runner: Bred to conquer the world. Out of a multiple G1 winning Japanese mare, covered by Galileo, Continuous has been seen handling all course conditions to date. King of Steel fairly toweled him up last start at Ascot after hitting the front far out in the straight. A shift from a Good/Firm track to something softer may be what the doctor ordered for this horse to find further improvement.
Trainer’s Say: Trainer hasn’t mentioned anything in public in relation to Continuous coming out. Running August 23rd so will know more going forward after that.
Deauville Legend – Timeform Rating 121
Odds: $34
Recent Form: 9th Group 1 King & Queen QIPCO Stakes, 4th Group 2 Hardwicke Stakes (Video)
Analysis of Runner: Started favourite last year in the Melbourne Cup coming off a 120+ Timeform rating in the Group 2 Voltigeur Stakes at York. Ran a career peak in the Melbourne Cup but that wasn’t enough to secure a win on the day with a massive rating by Gold Trip winning the strongly run race. Since then Deauville Legend has been a shell of his former self running 114+ in the Hardwicke and then falling back out of the race with 800m to go in the QIPCO. On previous ratings alone, he obviously has the potential to run well in a Cox Plate and even win with only slight improvement required. He wasn’t terrible in the Hardwicke in all reality and was a bit luckless in the straight blocked a few times.
Trainer’s Say: “It would be wonderful to win a Cox Plate or even a Melbourne Cup, but that will all depend on weight”.
Galeron – Timeform Rating 109
Odds: $51
Recent Form: 3rd Group 3 Bonhams Stakes (Video), 9th Group 1 St James’s Palace Stakes
Analysis of Runner: Recently seen at the Goodwood festival running a respectable third behind Epictetus and Nostrum. He was never a threat and had his chances on the day. Prior to this run his Group 1 Irish 2000 Guineas run was decent for 5th. Had 5 runs in this prep already and hasn’t been able to go beyond the 109 mark. Hard to suggest at this stage that he can bridge the gap between what’s needed to win the Cox Plate and his current ratings.
Trainer’s Say: Nominated for race on 26 August. Will know more after that.
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Greenland – Timeform Rating 110
Odds: $51
Recent Form: 4th Group 2 Prix Guillaume D’Ornano, 1st Group 3 Prix Greffulhe (Video)
Analysis of Runner: Looked a progressive type 2nd up when winning the Group 3 over in France by a short head on a soft track and was immediately sent out to the paddock. Returned earlier this month at Deauville and was well in the race from the turn but was one-paced at best up in company. Ran a career best 110 Timeform rating on the day as well.
Trainer’s Say: Nothing has been said in the media in relation to this runner.
Light Infantry – Timeform Rating 121
Odds: $9
Recent Form: 3rd Group 1 Prix Du Haras De Fresnay-Le-Buffard Jacques Le Marois, 3rd Group 1 Queen Anne Stakes
Analysis of Runner: Ideal type for this race heading to the top stable in Melbourne. Never been seen beyond 1850m when ran a close 2nd behind class runner Anmaat. Has been competing at the top level overseas for some time and the last start effort behind Inspiral and Big Rock is an ideal lead-in. Ratings wise you can expect Light Infantry to be coming around that final corner on Cox Plate day with his name being called as a top chance. Handles all types of ground.
Trainer Says: To be trained by Maher/Eustace stable. Targeting Cox Plate!
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Luxembourg – Timeform Rating 126
Odds: $26
Recent Form: 4th Group 1 QIPCO Stakes, 2nd Group 1 Price of Wales’s Stakes, 1st Group 1 Gold Cup (Video)
Analysis of Runner: Class horse. Alot of horses described in our preview need to improve. He simply needs to run to his best if he comes out for the Cox Plate and he can win. Led them all in the Gold Cup earlier this year to win the Group 1 and record the 2nd 126 Timeform rating of his career in separate years. Tough as nails on his day. Best runs have been on Good and Soft tracks, so will handle any condition. Last start run in the QIPCO showed that he is most likely a 2000m horse this prep and his greatest advantage is leading on his own terms. Remember back just a year and he was a very unlucky run 7th in the Arc held up at multiple stages. If they send him out for a shot at the Cox Plate, you can’t ignore him.
Trainer’s Say: Has not talked about the horse in any media in relation to Cox Plate.
My Prospero – Timeform Rating 125
Odds: $34
Recent Form: 2nd Group 2 York Stakes (Video), 4th Group 1 Prince of Wales’s Stakes
Analysis of Runner: Ratings wise, he gets into this race as a top chance… but can he repeat those ratings? Ran 125 back in October of 2022 in the Champion Stakes over the Cox Plate distance, but has failed to run beyond 119 since. Obviously, if you look at his ratings he has progressed 114+ to 116 to 119 this prep suggesting his next run may be close to his career peak. One could also argue that he might be better suited around a turn that could see him return to his very best. May also want a touch of give in the ground to find his very best. Can win the Cox Plate. If they confirm this horse is getting on the plane at any stage, i’m getting on.
Trainer’s Say: “[Queen Elizabeth winner] Dubai Honour is already inked in to go back to Sydney next year, but we need two or three horses to go with him. Before then, I’ve put My Prospero in the Cox Plate and Caulfield Cup, and he has passed the preliminary veterinary inspections from Racing Victoria.”
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New Endeavour – Timeform Rating 115
Odds: $51.00
Recent Form: 2nd Group 2 Hungerford Stakes, 3rd Sir Henry Cecil Stakes (Listed)
Analysis of Runner: We will know more if this horse can advance to the level needed for the Cox Plate with a run on the 26th August to tell us more. Obviously a nice type and continues to advance through the grades with a VERY valid second behind a good type in Witch Hunter last start in the Hungerford Stakes. Looks to get a little lost out in front and may actually be one of the few imports that comes over to Australia and loves getting away from the longer straights and finds lengths hugging a rail. Front runner type.
Trainer Says: Nominated for race on 26 August. Will know more after that.
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Paddington – Timeform Rating 130
Odds: $9
Recent Form: 1st Group 1 Sussex Stakes, 1st Group 1 Coral-Eclipse (Video)
Analysis of Runner: Won his last 7 races in a row from Good to Soft to heavy track conditions between 1400m and 2000m with the last four in Group 1 company. Yes, Ladies and Gentlemen, he is the real deal. His best run to date came in the Coral-Eclipse with a 128+ Timeform rating (which got him up to the 130p Timeform gave him) over the 2000m on a Good track. He will get the distance and he handles all surface types. If they fly him out, he will start favourite (even if Romanic Warrior comes) and he will be deserving of that quote in the betting markets.
Trainer’s Say: “Tom mentioned something about Australia but he could go anywhere or do anything.” O’Brien said.
Point Lonsdale – Timeform Rating 118
Odds: $101
Recent Form: 8th Group 1 QIPCO Stakes, 3rd Group 1 Coronation Cup, 1st Group 2 Huxley Stakes
Analysis of Runner: On-speed in the Huxley Stakes in May and won a decent race on a Soft track. Previous best performance prior was a Group 3 win on Heavy. Two runs since on Good to Firm and Good to Soft tracks were fails and he hasn’t put in a decent rating on a Good style track since 2021. To the eye he certainly hasn’t a top class colt, but ratings wise he can’t be dismissed. Certainly worse horses nominated that aren’t at the $101 quote!
Trainer’s Say: Nothing has been said in the media in relation to the Cox Plate nomination.
Victoria Road – Timeform Rating 114
Odds: $51
Recent Form: 7th Group 2 Prix Guillaume D’Ornano, 1st Group 1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf (Video)
Analysis of Runner: On-speed in the Breeder’s Cup beat an average lot (none of the top 10 have ran above 111 Timeform Rating since) but put up a decent 114 Timeform Rating. Had never been beyond 105 and last start on reappearance ran to 104. Must keep improving for me to even consider him on ratings and potential.
Trainer’s Say: Nothing has been said in the media in relation to this runner.
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West Wind Blows – Timeform Rating 117
Odds: $26
Recent Form: 3rd Group 1 Coral-Eclipse (Video), 2nd Group 2 Hardwicke Stakes
Analysis of Runner: Ran into some top level horses in Paddington and Emily Upjohn and was outmatched the final 200m by the class runners in the race but did beat home Dubai Honour who won the Group 1 Queen Elizabeth Stakes in the Autumn in Sydney. Beat some okay types home run prior in the Hardwicke including Deauville Legend. Winner of that race has since come out and ran only 5th in a Group 1. Consistent type that runs between 113 and 117 Timeform ratings the past two years. Unclear if there is an improvement in this horse to get to 121+. Better suited in a Caulfield Cup at those ratings.
Trainer’s Say: Most likely heading Turnbull into Caulfield Cup. Cox Plate seems a backup plan.
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