Spanish Mission is a genuine Cups contender

Despite no local stablehands being allowed to travel out to Australia with Spanish Mission for the Andrew Balding team, the data suggests that the UK import is a top-line contender for the 2021 Caulfield and Melbourne Cups. It was confirmed this morning by Racing.com that Spanish Mission would be on the next flight out and will be attempting to win both races.

Spanish Mission is no stranger to travel, having won the Belmont Stakes in the USA off a run the prior month in the UK. The 5YO has been to Dubai twice and performed ‘okay’ along with a trip to Saudi Arabi for the 3000m Red Sea Turf Handicap.

Spanish Mission came into his own after returning to the UK on good to firm tracks in May having put down a peak 118 Timeform rating up to this point in his career.

In the Yorkshire Cup (Group 2), Spanish Mission went around a $7.45 third-favourite against the fancied Sir Ron Priestley and Santiago over 2800m.

The speed was genuine with Wells Fargo setting the speed out front with Spanish Mission sitting last in the five-horse field. At the 600m mark, all three favourites were sitting pretty and Spanish Mission got a run-through on the inside. The favourite kicked a little clear about 400m out, but Spanish Mission out-stayed the group strong through the line running a career peak 121 Timeform Rating.

He then stepped well up in distance to 4000m for the Gold Cup at Ascot where he beat home Stradivarius, but found two too good in Princess Zoe and Subjectivist. He still ran a bold 120 Timeform rating for the effort. The distance got him.

Finally, the last start, he ventured to the Lonsdale Cup where he had a neck and neck encounter with Stradivarius over 3280m where they put 7 lengths on the rest of the field. He tried his heart out and recorded a 121 Timeform Rating.

What it takes to win or place in the Caulfield Cup the past three years?

2020 Caulfield Cup – (120 Timeform Rating won the race – 123 prior to race for the horse)
1st – Verry Elleegant – Got the mares allowance of 55kg – Had previous ran a 123 Timeform rating. Got the soft track and only had to run a 120 Timeform rating with the weight. As a comparison to Jameka in the past who won by 3L, Jameka ran a 121+ Timeform rating with 53.5kg.
2nd – Anthony Van Dyck – Carried 58.5kg – Came to Australia off a 123+ Timeform rating over 2400m. Ran 127 in the race with the big weight. Had previously run 127 over 1400m in the past.
3rd – The Chosen One – Low weight runner with 53.5kg – only needed to run a 115 Timeform rating – had consistently ran this in the past.

2019 Caulfield Cup – (122 Timeform Rating won the race – 119 prior to race for the horse)
1st – Mer De Glace – Got the progressive type allowance of 55.5kg – rated higher – Came out to Australia with a 119 Timeform rating. Ran 122 in the Caulfield Cup for the win.
2nd – Vow And Declare – Had to carry a top weight of 57kg in the race and went onto win the Melbourne Cup. Ran 117 Timeform rating and also ran that to win the Melbourne Cup with a slow tempo race.
3rd – Mirage Dancer – Had to carry 55kg but due to age + other factors including ran a 121 Timeform rating. Had previously run a 119 Timeform rating as best on lead up.

2018 Caulfield Cup – (124 Timeform Rating won the race – 124 prior to race for the horse)
1st – Best Solution – Won with a big weight of 57.5kg – deserved all of it with the rating on lead in – Progressed through the prep with a 119 Timeform rating into 120 and finally a 124 as the lead-in run. Ran 124 with a big weight on the day even after a slow start and working hard early.
2nd – Homesman – Carried a low 53kg – 116 Timeform rating best on lead into this. Ran a career peak 121 and never bettered it to date.
3rd – The Cliffsofmoher – Carried 56.5kg – 120m Timeform rating best on lead in over 2000m. Ran 118 on the day over the 2400m.

Conclusion on Timeform Ratings for Spanish Mission’s Chances in the Caulfield Cup

Spanish Mission has shown that he can be considered elite at 2800m+ but the distance of 2400m is certainly a query. If he is gifted a genuine contenders weight of 55kg, he can join the likes of CliffsofMoher and Mer De Glace of being backable. It all comes down to the handicapper if we bet up here. There isn’t a load of value in early prices, but on a genuinely good 4 rating track, and speed on, he is going to be in the finish.

What it takes to win or place in the Melbourne Cup the past three years?

2020 Melbourne Cup – (120 Timeform Rating won the race – 120 prior to race for the horse)
1st – Twilight Payment – Came out to Melbourne with a 120 Timeform rating over 2800m on record. Only got 55.5kg and ran another 120 Timeform rating to win!
2nd – Tiger Moth – 52.5kg – Ran a 118+ Timeform Rating on lead-in. Measured up with a 122 career peak and still found one too good with the low weight.
3rd – Prince of Arran – Career peak of 118 coming in and with 54.5kg ran 117+ storming home late.

2019 Melbourne Cup – (117 Timeform Rating won the race – 117 prior to race for the horse)
1st – Vow and Declare – Got in with as low weight down 5kg from the Caulfield cup with just 52kg. Won a packed finish slowly run Melb Cup. Timeform rating 117 leading in and matched it.
2nd – Prince of Arran – Ran a 117 Timeform rating in the Geelong Cup and got in with 54kg. Only ran a 115 Timeform Rating, below his 118 best.
3rd – Il Paradiso – Lightweight 3YO with 52.5kg. Ran huge from an impossible position in a race with no speed on. Had ran 119 on lead in prep. Ran 122 Timeform Rating.

2018 Melbourne Cup – (124 Timeform Rating won the race – 124+ prior to race for the horse)
1st – Cross Counter – Genuine tempo on in the race setup perfectly Cross Counter with just 51kg. Had previous ran 124+ Timeform Rating at Goodwood over 2400m. Matched it at 3200m ridden cold.
2nd – Marmelo – On lead-in had run 120 Timeform Rating. Hasn’t gone beyond that since apart from 123 in this race with 55kg. #unlucky in race.
3rd – Prince of Arran – Ran career peak of 118 on lead in run. Got in with just 53kg but 3 days between runs only ran 115 off the hot tempo.

As you will note, most 3YOs have to perform a little higher Timeform Rating wise due to the scales they are given. An older horse with the same weight – say 52.5kg – will have to run a few points less on the TF Rating.

Conclusion on Timeform Ratings for Spanish Mission’s Chances in the Melbourne Cup

This is Spanish Mission’s jam. A solidly run 3200m. Big field. Speed on from 1000-800m out. Firming track. He comes into this with a 121 Timeform rating over these distances and this is really the sweet spot for this type of race. The handicapper shouldn’t go hard on him either based on only being a Group 2 winner on record and Group 1 placings. Expecting 54.5-56.5kg and that allows him to win this.

Author: Drew Patchell
Follow me on Twitter @TheProfitsComAU for more updates.