Horse Racing Tips for 4 September 2021

Randwick Race 2 – Vale Nini Vascotto BM78 – 1100m

1. Stolen Jade: Measured up okay enough last prep. Back in class after finishing last first up when did too much work. Barrier ideal here but has to return to best to be a chance.
2. Enfleurage: First up last prep measured up to this type of grade ratings wise but last two starts have been well below this. Looked a very good type as a 3YO. Can win but looks short in markets on previous runs.
3. Shaik: Two runs last prep ran into races with no pace. Clearly has top level ability but may be better 1400+? Can run well on wet or dry. Barrier means will be out back running on late. Big contender.
4. La Jolie Fille: First up. Last prep ran some okay races in similar grades. Best runs have been in easier grade than this. Big price for a reason.
5. Nags to Riches: Stormed home from out back two back on the Kenso. Last start up to this grade and ran honestly with a similar PF data rating around -4. Has ability to win but get back run on.
6. Spiranac: Goese okay first up. Barrier ideal to sit midfield. Failed to measure up last prep in town but last run at Randwick in harder than this wasn’t bad. PF data wise has to improve.
7. Selburose: Six runs this prep and failed to get in a win. Up in grade here. Been running around the 0.00 PF data rating all prep and this looks to be closer to a -4 or -5 figure to win. Did measure up to that previous prep.
8. Patino Ruby: Huge win last start at Rosehill in BM-72 grade. Ran a -3.8 two back and -7.5 last start PF data wise. Back to 1100m the ONLY query here. Has won at 900m in past goes fine at 1100m distance.
9. The Neon Knight: Little bit of a non-winner last prep when got to city grade and had chances. Two runs this prep have been fair without looking a winning chance. Will be just off speed on rails looking for a bit of luck in the straight. Wants it wetter to find best.
10. Underwood: Massive jump in class from Wagga to here. Handles all conditions. Hasn’t broken PF benchmark ratings.

Top Chances: Patino Ruby
High Chances: Shaik, Nags to Riches
Medium Chances: Enfleurage, The Neon Knight
Low Chances: Stolen Jade, Spiranac, Selburose
Very Low Chances: La Jolie Fille, Underwood

Confidence: 80%
Comments: PF data -3.8 expected to be required to win this. The money has come for Patino Ruby but the $5 available at multiple venues is still value. This horse has the PF data on its side and loves the surface presented at Randwick and we won’t be put off by more rain which is expected. Will be just off the speed and hard to hold out.
Main danger looks Shaik and can be savered here.

Morphetville Race 1 – BM72 – 1000m

1. Winning Weather: Won last start with a prep peak -2.8 PF data rating on a soft 7. Looks much firmer today is the query. Has won 3 frm 5 this prep but hasn’t put two runs together in a while. Good type but inconsistent.
2. Rock Hard: Get back run on type. First up after a long prep ending 140 days ago. Measured up out of town but all runs at this track were poor. Would need to improve data wise between preps.
3. Huffington: On speed runner. Pushed a strong tempo last start for a good enough 3rd but failed to finish off last 200m. Has to improve to win this but has ability.
4. Larkham: Goes well first up and is first up here. Trialled 4 weeks ago and had enjoyed the paddock and wasn’t super impressive, but has had the time to get fit and will be ready today. Flys the gates. Finished last prep with a -7.6 PF data rating run. All three runs last prep were above -1.3 and and -1.8 is whats expected to win this today. Loves a dry track.
5. Spanish Heirloom: On speed type. Last prep did run a -4.6 as best run evr but has failed since to go close with +1.5 the best of the past three runs including two this prep. Need to go to another level again to win this even with claims.
6. Smokin’ Val: Ended last prep measuring up in listed and group level races running -2.5, -3.7, -4.7 and -0.9 to finish off the prep. Was pushed out a fair bit to keep up with them in her trial when jumped well on speed and hated the competitiveness of it. Query fitness here for me.

Top Chances: Larkham
High Chances: Smokin’ Val, Winning Weather
Medium Chances: Huffington
Low Chances: Rock Hard
Very Low Chances: Spanish Heirloom

Confidence: 85%
Comments: Very keen to take on Smokin’ Val off the trial where the horse was pushed out to even stay in it. Larkham ran a 22.24 final 400m to end last prep and anything close to that blows this grade of race away from on speed.

Randwick Race 5 – TAB Concorde Stakes – 1000m

1. Nature Strip: Three runs last prep for a G1 win, 0.1L Group 2 second and 2L Group 1 win. The data is impossible to ignore. He is so much better than all others here, especially at 1000m and he is 6 from 8 on soft or heavy tracks so the conditions suit.
2. Trekking: Failed over in Perth as the $2 favourite last year. Last prep went around favoured in all three runs and couldn’t win. This is much harder and he is best on a dryer surface.
3. Wild Ruler: Decent type of horse but may not be the absolute top level. Did run up to -10.2 last prep which has him in contention but will need to improve to go back Natures Strip.
4. Standout: Ran a -11.9 last prep well defeated on that day. A step below these but could place.
5. N/A
6. Handle The Truth: -5.4 best PF data rating past two preps. Wagga up to this is a big ask.
7. Star Boy: Not the worst here. -8.7 best PF data run last prep. Even so first up and in this grade rough ask.
8. Standing Bear: Beaten last start in a Class 3 at Coffs Harbour. Can’t win.
9. Adelong: Won last two in a row. Big jump in class. -8.1 best PF data of last 5 runs. Did put a -12.5 on a heavy track on the record. Needs more rain to even figure.

Top Chances: Nature Strip
High Chances:
Medium Chances: Wild Ruler, Trekking
Low Chances: Standout, Adelong
Very Low Chances: Handle The Truth, Star Boy
No Chance: Standing Bear

Confidence: 95%
Comments: -9.7 PF data expected average required to win this in the past. Natures Strip last 5 runs have all been -10.9 and above and all last prep were -12.6 or above. He is so far ahead of this group with just one main contender that the $1.55 is actually value.