Delphi stakes Melbourne Cup claims

Previously with Aidan O’Brien in Ireland. Delphi won four in a row including a 4L Listed win and G3 St Leger beating the likes of Master of Reality over 2800m. Now with the Freedman stable, he is on the path to a Melbourne Cup.

Best seen when ridden hard out front leading and pushing tempo. He came out to Australia with a 117p Timeform rating. Importantly, the horse has been given just 52.5kg in the Melbourne Cup and is on the edge of getting in on current rankings when considering horses most likely not to go towards the race or come out to Australia.

The right road to success in the past for Melbourne Cups has always been to get 10,000 kms into a horse before attempting to take out the race. That is clear in the campaign the Freedman team is giving the horse.

Starting the prep up at Eagle Farm over 1600m in a Listed grade he only managed 6th with what was clearly just a fitness run.
He then went onto Listed Grade over 1700m at Caulfield when ran a respectful 4th over 1700m.
Finally, over the weekend, he ran a close 2nd beaten 0.1L behind Nonconformist in Group 3 company over 2000m at Caulfield.

The Freedmans are trying something different with him. Perhaps it works out at longer distances, or for the day of the Melbourne Cup, they do send him all out and back to his very best leading a strong tempo out the front breaking his opponent’s hearts.

Only time will tell what tactics are used when he makes the big race. Let’s assume he gets in with an extra 1kg and goes around with 53.5kg on the day. Around a 117 timeform rating should be good enough to win.

What it takes to win or place in the Melbourne Cup the past three years?

2020 Melbourne Cup – (120 Timeform Rating won the race – 120 prior to race for the horse)
1st – Twilight Payment – Came out to Melbourne with a 120 Timeform rating over 2800m on record. Only got 55.5kg and ran another 120 Timeform rating to win!
2nd – Tiger Moth – 52.5kg – Ran a 118+ Timeform Rating on lead-in. Measured up with a 122 career peak and still found one too good with the low weight.
3rd – Prince of Arran – Career peak of 118 coming in and with 54.5kg ran 117+ storming home late.

2019 Melbourne Cup – (117 Timeform Rating won the race – 117 prior to race for the horse)
1st – Vow and Declare – Got in with as low weight down 5kg from the Caulfield cup with just 52kg. Won a packed finish slowly run Melb Cup. Timeform rating 117 leading in and matched it.
2nd – Prince of Arran – Ran a 117 Timeform rating in the Geelong Cup and got in with 54kg. Only ran a 115 Timeform Rating, below his 118 best.
3rd – Il Paradiso – Lightweight 3YO with 52.5kg. Ran huge from an impossible position in a race with no speed on. Had ran 119 on lead in prep. Ran 122 Timeform Rating.

2018 Melbourne Cup – (124 Timeform Rating won the race – 124+ prior to race for the horse)
1st – Cross Counter – Genuine tempo on in the race setup perfectly Cross Counter with just 51kg. Had previous ran 124+ Timeform Rating at Goodwood over 2400m. Matched it at 3200m ridden cold.
2nd – Marmelo – On lead-in had run 120 Timeform Rating. Hasn’t gone beyond that since apart from 123 in this race with 55kg. #unlucky in race.
3rd – Prince of Arran – Ran career peak of 118 on lead in run. Got in with just 53kg but 3 days between runs only ran 115 off the hot tempo.

As you will note, most 3YOs have to perform a little higher Timeform Rating-wise due to the scales they are given. An older horse with the same weight – say 52.5kg – will have to run a few points less on the TF Rating.

Conclusion on Timeform Ratings for Delphi’s Chances in the Melbourne Cup

Prince Of Arran is the prime example over the past three years of how Delphi fits in here. Prince of Arran has carried 53kg, 54kg and 54.5kg to place top 3 each time. He has run 115, 117, and 118 on the Timeform ratings accordingly. Delphi with under 54kg will only have to equal his current Timeform rating to be a winning chance. If the change of tactics to take a sit find another gear, he could be the one to beat on the day. Considering he is already out in Australia, he is backable. A final note, he feels more a MC type than CC type, he is nominated for both.

Author: Drew Patchell
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