Morphetville Form – Horse Racing – 19 February 2022
Morphetville Race 2 – BM66 – 1300m
1. Predetermined: Led in Class 1 at Sandown four back and pushed a top tempo and fell in a hole late going way too fast. Two runs this prep over shorter distances have gone close but found one too good both runs. Data wise has been -1.7 and 3.4 on Puntingform Data. Has the ability to run well enough.
2. Strike Eagle: Maiden winner last prep on Synthetic. Failed at Flemington first up and then came back home and got an easy kill in a low-grade rating race in BM-60 from on speedrunning them around slowly and only running a final 400 of 24.72. Looks the type to take on.
3. Max Fire: First up today. Nice trial win at Gawler. Last prep won a maiden over 1400m on heavy then went onto win at 1550m and place over 1800m in listed company. Has ability and best runs rating wise were over further. Obvious step back in class though if trained on and could surprise if speed is on.
4. Fox Gem: Comes out of two slowly run races. Just missed first up and then last start in similar company ran on very well to record the best final 200m of the day which included a race with Behemoth in it. Horse clearly has the ability to run past others here from barrier 2 sitting just off the speed. If speed is on we will obviously find out if the horse settles well enough… to my eye looks like the horse wants more speed and will thrive.
5. Wheels of Courage: Another horse in the race that has shown very best runs over further in the past. Last prep won a maiden over 1200m so can win at this distance but continued up in distance to run 3rd to Max Fire over 1550m and then beaten 1.5L 6th in Listed grade over 1800m. First up behind Fox Gem had no luck. Wouldn’t have won but would have finished closer. Speed on here and comes right into it.
6. Fonsalette: Group 2 placed as a 2YO, twice over 1100m and 1200m. As a 3YO placed in maidens and ran 2.9L 5th in Group 3. First up was favourite in a maiden from a bad barrier in a big bunch race and was never fully tested to the line where clearly should have won. Easier race. Better barrier. Looks the one to beat if can improve. No speed in the race would be against her. Last start rating was 2.4 on the Puntingform Data. If got a clear run probably ran a -0?
9. Starsongari: Failed to get a win n a class 1 last start. Never ran close to the figures required to win this. Take on.
Speed Map
If Predetermined fights Strike Eagle and Max Fire for the lead then we could get a genuinely run -2 to -6 pace to the 600m. My prediction for the race is 35% we get that pace and 50% from benchmark to -2.
Top Chances: Fox Gem, Fonsalette
High Chances: None
Medium Chances: Max Fire, Wheels of Courage
Low Chances: Predetermined
Very Low Chances: Strike Eagle, Starsongari
Comments
Average for this race type of race is around a -0.2 overall on Puntingform data.
Looks to be two clear chances low in the markets then two at larger odds with more class over further that can run well in Max Fire and Wheels of Courage.
Fonsalette is favourite here and short in the market. From the barrier, if Pannell isn’t careful on Fox Gem, he could allow first run and position outside of Fox Gem.
It’s not often i’m taking a horse that has never gone close to the benchmark rating expected for this race on top like Fox Gem, but the other data points to a win here.
Strategy
Fox Gem to win
Morphetville Race 3 – BM-86 – 1000m
1. All Banter: Bar Plates on Hind first time. Without this ‘change’ would be a clear $2 favourite top pick here. Even out first up with a good first-up record and loves this track and distance range. 3kg claimer is ideal and key here from barrier 3. Data wise last 7 runs have been -5.6, -7.9, -11.6, -10.2, -6.3, -5.3, -4.4. Any of those runs data wise will be in the finish/winning this.
2. Smuggling: Down from Darwin. Wasn’t exactly winning races up here. This is much harder. Have to take on.
3. Octane: Nice horse but has failed to win in a long time. Last start ran a nice race with a strong -6.7 final 600m on the Puntingform Data with a final 400m of 22.64. The speed wasn’t on there which suited the horse. Hasn’t gone beyond -0.8 data-wise in 6 runs.
4. Deep Speed: Inconsistent type. Last prep first up ran huge with a -8.1 data rating at Caulfield winning in open grade. Back in class the next three starts failed to run beyond a -1.6. Trialled well enough at Geelong last month. Coming off of lameness issues last prep.
5. Larimer Street: Get back run on type with a strong final 200/400. Best run last prep where won well by 2.5L was enough to win this. But that was also a one off, second up. Last start held up critical times during race could have probably beaten Octane that day. Don’t dismiss.
6. Propelle: Two trials on lead in here for new stable. Last prep was running -5, -6.8 -3.0 and -2.5 at Caulfield over similar distances. Will measure up on ratings to be a chance but I can’t have first up over 1000m on this ground in this race.
7. Another Award: Ran home 22 seconds last start over 1400m at Flemington off a slow tempo. Well back in distance here. Talented type but big query at this distance. Unsure anything below 1200m is best for her.
8. Valentina Star: Darwin type. Back down to the big city. Query on running well here. Not for mine on previous runs.
Speed Map
All Banter and Deep Speed expected to set the tempo. I actually hope and want to see Deep Speed pushing some tempo into All Banter – we get a genuine tempo and the best horses win.
Top Chances: All Banter
High Chances: Deep Speed, Larimer Street
Medium Chances: Octane, Propelle
Low Chances: Another Award
Very Low Chances: Smuggling, Valentina Star
Comments
A Puntingform Data rating of -4.6 is whats average to win this on past results.
All Banter is perfectly suited here data wise if can repeat the last 5 runs, should be winning.
Deep Speed comes into this rating well but off lameness issues and will need the run.
Larimer Street ran home well last start after being held up and will be the obvious danger late.
Strategy
All Banter to win
Save Larimer Street
Morphetville Race 6 – BM68 – 1000m
1. Pariano: Five runs this prep and while 2nd/3rd up were disappointing, has returned to form the last two with solid runs. Last start back to this class just missed behind Spin The Reward running a -3.1. Can run well.
2. Lancaster Sound: Five runs this prep and finally got a win last start in country grade $16,800 race. Data suggests has to find much more to measure up here.
3. Larkham: Got a win in BM-60 grade three back and then failed the next start. Last start ran into some very good types beaten 3L and still ran a very good -6.4. Has the ability to run a winning rating. Don’t dismiss on best.
4. Philonize: Trial on lead in beat home Gytrash but was pushed out a little to have a run. Never gave ground late when Gytrash was given a little push. Won three in a row last prep including two PuntignForm ratings of -5.5 and -5.4. Will be on speed and hard to run past with the claim.
6. Shift The Risk: Darwin horse first up here for a new stable. Data from up north won’t be enough here.
7. Hills: Showed absolutely nothing data-wise up until last start when ran a big rating behind Quietly Discreet. I have BIG queries over the ratings of that race based on this horse + others who have never done that. I’ll be taking on at the odds.
8. Shellshocked: Won two back over 1100m. Two previous runs data wise will measure up here. Last start in a slowly run race beaten by a nice type in Fighting McLaren. Consistent type. Can win.
9. May’s West: 5.5L winner on heavy. Two runs this prep and not up to this on dry.
10. Madam Furphy: Maiden win last prep would measure up and have a chance here. First up had chance in BM-58 and couldn’t get close. Has to improve significantly.
11. Spirited Match: Not even close in this grade.
Speed Map
Expecting Philonize to keep a genuine pace on speed. May’s West could be on speed pushing tempo also but nothing outrageous on previous starts.
Top Chances: Philonize
High Chances: Pariano
Medium Chances: Larkham, Shellshocked
Low Chances: Lancaster Sound, Hills, Madam Furphy
Very Low Chances: May’s West, Shift The Risk, Spirited Match
Comments
Puntingform Data average to win this on previous events is -1.0.
Pariano and Larkham on previous runs can go close here but the key standout is Philonize who can lead them along at a strong tempo and win or if gets an easy time out front, run home a 22.64 which would be more than enough to win this. Looks perfectly suited and keen to bet here.
Strategy
Back Philonize