Mount Gambier Form – Horse Racing – 23 February 2022
Soft 5 writing this but it’s a 32’c day and expecting it all to dry out. This is a very tricky track to play at – the first turn over 1200m comes up quickly so being caught wide early is not a good thing.
Mount Gambier Race 4 – 1800m – BM74
1. Sebonna: Won very well last start at Naracoorte and three back in a $100k race at Morphetville was beaten 0.4L. Data wise -3.3 and -6.3 on the two previous Morphetville runs. Up in weight but still looks the clear standout. 1800m start suits for this horse.
2. Steven James: Open grade runner in NZ. Three runs in AUS at old stable and didn’t produce anything i feel would be measuring up here without improvement.
3. Tolemac: Best in the past has been over further than this… but data wise is actually a live chance. Has measured up in VIC in city grade over these distances.
4. Mista Holyfield: Last start well back in grade won a poor BM-58. Obviously better than that grade but up against it here in comparison. Will be on speed. Consistent. Doesn’t have a massive final 200m.
5. Brigadier: Blinkers on. City horse back in the day. Back to Walters stable. Very poor last prep. Hard to suggest in this grade.
6. Bossy Britches: Got back ran on well last start behind Sebonna. Meets much better at weights from barrier 2. Has run -2.7 Data wise in the past. For mine still a step below the favourite.
7. Clever Man: A while between runs where failed both previous starts at unsuitable distances. Last win was in Bm-68 grade over 2100m. Can improve and run well here but needs to show something I’ve not seen from him.
8. Naseeb: Four runs this prep and not been within 2.5L of a win and last start beaten 12L behind Sebonna. Struggle to suggest.
10. Appollo Jet: Looks the type to improve off a last start win in BM-58 grade. Even so this is a big step up again. Last prep ran very well in BM-75 at Morphetville for a -3.5.
11. Persian Empire: Was a good city horse a few years back. Shown very little since. Big step up here on current form.
Speed Map
Expecting horses to push speed out front with Tolemac and Appollo Jet setting a fair tempo.
Top Chances: Sebonna
High Chances: Bossy Britches, Appollo Jet
Medium Chances: Tolemac, Mista Holyfield, Clever Man
Low Chances: Brigadier, Naseeb, Persian Empire
Very Low Chances: Steven James
Comments
With the scratching of Nordic Symphony, while the price of Sebonna reduces, the chances of a win SIGNIFICANTLY increase.
Appollo Jet will kick clear with 300m left and be there to run down late for Sebonna.
Strategy
Back Sebonna
Mount Gambier Race 5 – 1200m – BM-64
1. Damascus Moment: On speedrunner. Won four back by 5 lengths then last three runs been close as a short price runner and consistently run good times/data. Back to mid-week lower prize money race. Started $2.25 last start in harder. Wants speed on. Gets it. Last three runs -6.8, -0.2 and 1.7 Puntingform Data. The expected average to win this is closer to 6.0.
2. Rhythmatic: Hasn’t won in 19 runs. Continues to run ‘well’ without winning. Barrier against.
3. Wonaeamirri: Eye-catching held up run two back in harder. Well backed off that run last start but failed to fire until late from far back. Barrier 4 today ideal can get a good spot in run. Looks a chance.
5. Brobak: Blinkers on. Won first up and then gone up in grade last two starts and failed on both occasions. Needs to improve.
6. Donation: Maiden winner last start then spelled. Data-wise really did nothing on all three runs last prep the issue. 233 days between run also says issues between preps.
7. Unlimited Ability: On speedrunner. Can see out a decently strong speed but falls in a hole late. Can’t see him winning.
8. Hi Smokey: Won by a large margin back in grade last start. Won first-up also. Priced short accordingly.
9. Thunder Park: Maiden winner last prep. Two runs this prep went forward and back and beaten a long way both times. Has to improve massively.
10. Gutsy: Horrible last three runs. Was decent 2nd up. Struggle to be near this horse.
11. Quick Enuff: Very good run in winning her maiden last prep on Synthetic. First up here. Right stable. Horse with ability. Query distance.
13. Solaazem: Got up over much further last prep. Query in this.
Speed Map
Expecting a strong tempo with 3-4 on speed runners including Quick Enuff, Damascus Moment, High Smokey and Unlimited Ability all natural leaders.
Top Chances: Damascus Moment
High Chances: Quick Enuff
Medium Chances: Wonaeamirri, Hi Smokey
Low Chances: Rhythmatic, Thunder Park, Brobak
Very Low Chances: Unlimited Ability, Gutsy, Solaazem
Comments
Two CLEAR standouts here in Damsacus Moment and Quick Enuff. Very keen to be taking on the rest of the field here based on their last two runs and the data.
Can take around $1.80 for either to win or around $2.60 with Damsacus Moment to win Quick Enuff saver.
Strategy
Damascus Moment to win
Save Quick Enuff