International Horse Profile: Dawn Patrol

The early ‘tip’ around town back in July, Dawn Patrol resumed with an 11th beaten 3L in Group 2 company earlier this month behind Superstorm.

Dawn Patrol needs no less ground than 2000m to actually ‘get going’ on a track and 2400m+ is the ideal for the son of Galileo.

Those who expected something first up should reassess their judgment. In his only run this prep in the UK, he was beaten a head over 2000m in the Group 3 International Stakes in June from out the back in running. He was held up at vital stages for runs and clearly was the better horse on the day.

Dawn Patrol ran 116 Timeform Rating on the day and that is respectable enough if you consider potential improvement to feature this Spring with 53kg in the Caulfield Cup and the Melbourne Cup.

Arriving at Macedon Lodge on the 10th of August, Dawn Patrol has had enough time to settle into a surrounding much better for a cups tilt than Werribee and is being given every possible chance to line up in both cups.

What it takes to win or place in the Caulfield Cup the past three years?

2020 Caulfield Cup – (120 Timeform Rating won the race – 123 prior to race for the horse)
1st – Verry Elleegant – Got the mares allowance of 55kg – Had previous ran a 123 Timeform rating. Got the soft track and only had to run a 120 Timeform rating with the weight. As a comparison to Jameka in the past who won by 3L, Jameka ran a 121+ Timeform rating with 53.5kg.
2nd – Anthony Van Dyck – Carried 58.5kg – Came to Australia off a 123+ Timeform rating over 2400m. Ran 127 in the race with the big weight. Had previously run 127 over 1400m in the past.
3rd – The Chosen One – Low weight runner with 53.5kg – only needed to run a 115 Timeform rating – had consistently ran this in the past.

2019 Caulfield Cup – (122 Timeform Rating won the race – 119 prior to race for the horse)
1st – Mer De Glace – Got the progressive type allowance of 55.5kg – rated higher – Came out to Australia with a 119 Timeform rating. Ran 122 in the Caulfield Cup for the win.
2nd – Vow And Declare – Had to carry a top weight of 57kg in the race and went onto win the Melbourne Cup. Ran 117 Timeform rating and also ran that to win the Melbourne Cup with a slow tempo race.
3rd – Mirage Dancer – Had to carry 55kg but due to age + other factors including ran a 121 Timeform rating. Had previously run a 119 Timeform rating as best on lead up.

2018 Caulfield Cup – (124 Timeform Rating won the race – 124 prior to race for the horse)
1st – Best Solution – Won with a big weight of 57.5kg – deserved all of it with the rating on lead in – Progressed through the prep with a 119 Timeform rating into 120 and finally a 124 as the lead-in run. Ran 124 with a big weight on the day even after a slow start and working hard early.
2nd – Homesman – Carried a low 53kg – 116 Timeform rating best on lead into this. Ran a career peak 121 and never bettered it to date.
3rd – The Cliffsofmoher – Carried 56.5kg – 120m Timeform rating best on lead in over 2000m. Ran 118 on the day over the 2400m.

What it takes to win or place in the Melbourne Cup the past three years?

2020 Melbourne Cup – (120 Timeform Rating won the race – 120 prior to race for the horse)
1st – Twilight Payment – Came out to Melbourne with a 120 Timeform rating over 2800m on record. Only got 55.5kg and ran another 120 Timeform rating to win!
2nd – Tiger Moth – 52.5kg – Ran a 118+ Timeform Rating on lead-in. Measured up with a 122 career peak and still found one too good with the low weight.
3rd – Prince of Arran – Career peak of 118 coming in and with 54.5kg ran 117+ storming home late.

2019 Melbourne Cup – (117 Timeform Rating won the race – 117 prior to race for the horse)
1st – Vow and Declare – Got in with as low weight down 5kg from the Caulfield cup with just 52kg. Won a packed finish slowly run Melb Cup. Timeform rating 117 leading in and matched it.
2nd – Prince of Arran – Ran a 117 Timeform rating in the Geelong Cup and got in with 54kg. Only ran a 115 Timeform Rating, below his 118 best.
3rd – Il Paradiso – Lightweight 3YO with 52.5kg. Ran huge from an impossible position in a race with no speed on. Had ran 119 on lead in prep. Ran 122 Timeform Rating.

2018 Melbourne Cup – (124 Timeform Rating won the race – 124+ prior to race for the horse)
1st – Cross Counter – Genuine tempo on in the race setup perfectly Cross Counter with just 51kg. Had previous ran 124+ Timeform Rating at Goodwood over 2400m. Matched it at 3200m ridden cold.
2nd – Marmelo – On lead-in had run 120 Timeform Rating. Hasn’t gone beyond that since apart from 123 in this race with 55kg. #unlucky in race.
3rd – Prince of Arran – Ran career peak of 118 on lead in run. Got in with just 53kg but 3 days between runs only ran 115 off the hot tempo.

As you will note, most 3YOs have to perform a little higher Timeform Rating wise due to the scales they are given. An older horse with the same weight – say 52.5kg – will have to run a few points less on the TF Rating.

What are Dawn Patrol’s chances in the Caulfield and Melbourne Cups?

Commanding an easier path into both cups than say Delphi who needs to get a win on the board between now and the ‘big dances’, Dawn Patrol should be able to sneak into the field with the current weight and position if all things go to plan. Dawn Patrol can run with this weight equal to the likes of Prince of Arran in the past to be a contender in both Cups. Where things stand ratings wise, Incentivise is only giving him a few kg’s for 6 Timeform Rating points. He will need to improve to measure up over the 2400m against the best there on the day. The first Tuesday in November may just be his ultimate chance in a race where low-weight Internationals continue to dominate.

Author: Drew Patchell
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