Royal Ascot Day 3 – 2021
Race 2 – 2000m – Hampton Court Stakes Group 3
1. One Ruler: Two runs this prep in G1 company beaten 4.75L and 14L. Best run last prep 125 Timeform Rating was 2nd in a G1. Average needed here in past is 132. Has to improve to be in the finish.
2. Matchless: Coming off a Heavy track 5th in a G3. Last win was in MUCH easier class. This is a massive ask and I can’t see on current form or rating of 112 that he will be close to in the finish.
3. Mohaafeth: Won three in a row this prep including a 5L domination last start with a 132+ Timeform rating. Rates to win this off what we have seen and suited by track conditions.
4. Movin Time: Maiden winner by 4L last start coming off two defeats last prep on all-weather at Newcastle. Beat Kemari in 2nd on that day who went on to win a Maiden by 6L and then yesterday scored the G2 Queens Vase. Surprised by the big backing price wise. 123P Timeform Rating. Has to make a massive jump again this start in this grade.
5. Notre Belle Bete: First ever run was a big 120 Timeform rating then failed to fire last two starts. Couldn’t win a maiden last start.
6. Pythagoras: Beaten 6L last start at York running a 120 timeform rating and that was a questionable rating. Big improvement needed to even place here.
7. Roman Empire: Beaten 4L in a G2 last start at York beating home Pythagoras on that day. Showed a bit improvement there with a 124 Timeform rating. Not the worst chance here but has to improve onwards again. Query class.
8. Secret Protector: 2nd at Newmarket last two starts in Listed grade. Ran 124/122 Timeform ratings those two starts. 4th up for the prep here. Has to improve, again.
9. Snapraeterea: Best seen on Heavy track three back. Back in distance not suited 118 Timeform rating last start. Steps back up in distance. Improvement would be needed to win. Has shown ability.
10. The Rosstafarian: Never runc lsoe to the Timeform Rating needed to run well here. Surprised by the price. Take on.
Speed Map
Speed will be genuine with Roman Empire and Matchless settting the tempo.
Chances
Top Chances: Mohaafeth
High Chances: Movin Time
Medium Chances: One Ruler, Roman Empire, Secret Protector
Low Chances: Notre Belle Bete, Pythagoras, Snapraeterea
Very Low Chances: Matchless, The Rosstafarian
Confidence: 85%
Comments:
Keen to play here. Average Timeform rating the past few years has beeen 132 with 130-133 the level. Mohaafeth comes in with a 132+ and is rated to win. Every other horse comes in with a 125 or below Timeform rating.
Big bet on Mohaafeth.
Saver Movin Time.
Royal Ascot Race 4 – 4000m – Group 1 – Gold Cup
1. Nayef Road: Old mate has been a consistent runner in this class over these distances. Doesn’t win but places alot. Rate on first run this prep and can place again.
2. Rip Van Lips: G2 winner in Germany. 118 Timeform Rating on lead-in. Needs to find about 5-8 lengths to win this. Have to take on.
3. Spanish Mission: G2 winner at York last start by nearly 3 lengths recording a peak 133 Timeform rating. In form at the right time. Can run well.
4. Stradivarius: Only needed to run a 128+ last start to win on return at Ascot in a G3. Best rating in last year was a 135+ in the Prix Foy defeat behind Anthony Van Dyck. Best in the past is 142 Timeform rating.
5. Trueshan: 138 Timeform rating to end last prep at Ascot winning by nearly 8 lengths. Beaten first up but not disgraced when Japan beat him at Cheltenham. Up in distance and can improve significantly ratings wise again! The horse to beat. Handles all tempos.
6. Twilight Payment: Melbourne Cup winner. Ran a 132 Timeform Rating that day. Wasn’t suited last start when 3rd and was a lay on the day. Not the worst chance if goes out front and pace makes like in the Melb Cup.
7. Amhran Na Bhfiann: 121 Timeform rating heading into this after running 3rd in a G1 last prep. Two runs this prep didn’t go close to peak. Hard to suggest the massive improvement needed.
8. Ben Lilly: Unsure how Ben gets a run here. 111 Timeform rating. Can’t place. Can’t win.
9. Emperor of the Sun: 3.5L winner last start back to Listed grade. 128 Timeform rating on the day. Has to improve.
10. Santiago: Looked a Melbourne Cup type last prep but just didn’t make the gig. Two runs this prep both fair with 123+ and 126 Timeform rating. Has to improve again but is expected to do so. Won the Queen’s Vase last year.
11. Serpentine: G1 winner by 5L last prep at Epsom in the Derby when speed was hot. Hasn’t placed since in Three attempts. 131 Timeform last prep. Hasn’t beat 124+ this prep.
12. Subjectivist: G2 winner last start in Meydan by over 6 lengths winning the Dubai Gold Cup recording a Timeform rating peak of 131+. Looks an obvious likely type to run well here.
13. Princess Zoe: Two runs this prep both very poor. Last prep ran a 129 Timeform rating winning a staying G1 on Heavy. Acts best on wetter surfaces.
Speed Map
Pace should be genuine enough. Won’t be brutal tempo. Especially for a 4000m race.
Chances
Top Chances: Trueshan
High Chances: Subjectivist, Stradivarius, Spanish Mission
Medium Chances: Serpentine, Santiago, Emperor of the Sun, Twilight Payment
Low Chances: Nayef Road, Princess Zoe,
Very Low Chances: Rip Van Lips, Ben Lilly, Amhran Na Bhfiann
Confidence: 80%
Comments: Trueshan is the standout here at a good price. Expect he will stay all day. Happy to back to win and save the fav Stradivarius.