Cox Plate 2023 Form Guide
International runners have dominated the Cox Plate in recent years winning three of the past four races. Anamoe was able to get the job done last year but El Bodegon did go close off a low Timeform rating beaten half a length on the day. Drew Patchell has taken a look at what it takes to win the Cox Plate according to the Timeform ratings and also looked at each individual international runner for the race. If you are looking for the runner-by-runner form you will need to scroll past a fair bit of preamble, but I assure you it’s worth reading!
What it takes to win or place in the Cox Plate the past five years for international raider form to hold up on Timeform?
2022 Cox Plate – (126 Timeform Rating won the race – 125+ prior to race for the horse)
1st – Anamoe – Came into the race as the favourite and delivered with grace and class with a genuine tempo set that allowed the now-retired champion to extend cornering into the straight putting lengths on the main dangers. He ran a career peak 126 Timeform rating, ahead of three 125 timeform ratings, all of which were on Heavy or Soft track ratings.
2nd – I’m Thunderstruck – Ran 124+ Timeform rating to equal his best rating ever when running 2nd on a Heavy track in the Doncaster early in 2022, as well as the lead in run 124 beaten a neck behind Anamoe in the Might and Power Stakes.
3rd – El Bodegon – Ran 124 Timeform rating but had never gone above 115 (beaten 5 lengths in a French Group 1 (but beat Modern Games on that day and it was behind Vadeni who ran a close 2nd in the Arc since, so very good form lines). May have been under-represented in the ratings off this run.
2021 Cox Plate – (125 Timeform Rating won the race – 119 prior to race for the horse)
1st – State of Rest – Ran 125 – Came into the race with what was clearly a progressive profile winning a Group 1 on the lead in increasing his personal best timeform rating from 109 to 119. So no surprise to see it improve to 125 here. Had to improve to beat off Anamoe.
2nd – Anamoe – Ran 122 – Previous ran 123 Timeform Rating and was still improving when you consider he ran 125 or above 4 times after this run. Bit unlucky to not win on the day.
3rd – Very Elleegant – Ran 116 – Previously ran 123 on lead-in. Ran 127 Timeform rating in the Melbourne Cup after this to win. Obviously, that was the goal all along.
2020 Cox Plate – (123 Timeform Rating won the race – 122 prior to race for the horse)
1st – Sir Dragonet – Got a genuine tempo and soft track – previous best 122+ timeform on soft. All perfect conditions on day. Ran 123 to win.
2nd – Armory – Ran 122+ Timeform rating in previous G1 run and repeated that figure with 122 for second.
3rd – Russian Camelot – Best in past seen over slightly shorter distances. Ran to 121 Timeform Rating on the day. Had previously ran 124 in the Underwood on a soft track.
2019 Cox Plate – (124 Timeform Rating won the race – 125+ prior to race for the horse)
1st – Lys Gracieux – Won like a good thing going away from them. Tempo was solid. Run prior was 124 Timeform Rating. Ran 125+ on the day. Next start in Japan ran 128! Class horse.
2nd – Castelvecchio – Ran a clear career peak here of 124 Timeform rating. Won a G1 since running 120.
3rd – Te Akau Shark – Disappointed on the day – 2000m too far for horses best. Ran 119 on the day coming off a 126 Timeform rating prior and 126+ next start after that both those over 1600m.
2018 Cox Plate – (129+ Timeform Rating won the race – 134 prior to race for the horse)
1st – Winx – Didn’t need to run up to her best to win but had to improve on last start win. Did so impressively going up to 129+ Timeform Rating on the day from 123+ run prior. Just had to run to best to win.
2nd – Benbatl – Would have won any other year without Winx in the race. Came in with 129 Timeform rating and ran to 129! Ran 124 since. Was a career peak along with Dubai Turf win over 3l+ back in March of 2018.
3rd – Humidor – Beaten 4.75L into 3rd – you take that as an owner. Ran 122 Timeform on the day. Previous best 129 previous year behind Winx. Best since that 129 was this 123 and never improved. Previous best behind that was 125+. Peaked in 2017.
How do 3YO’s measure up in this race?
What it takes for a 3YO to win a Cox Plate on Timeform Data.
2009 SO YOU THINK 49.5kg – 108 Caulfield Guineas – 124 Cox Plate – Winner 🥇
2009 MANHATTAN RAIN 49.5kg – 116 Guineas Prelude – 118 Cox Plate – 2nd
2011 HELMET 49.5kg – 127 Caulfield Guineas – 117 Cox Plate – Unplaced
2012 ALL TOO HARD 49.5kg – 125 Caulfield Guineas – 127 Cox Plate – 2nd
2012 PIERRO 49.5kg – 127 Champagne Stakes – 119 Cox Plate – 3rd
2013 PROISIR 49.5kg – NA – 114 Cox Plate – Unplaced
2013 SHAMUS AWARD 49.5kg – 115 Caulfield Guineas – 124 Cox Plate – Winner 🥇
2013 LONG JOHN 49.5kg – 122 Caulfield Guineas – 107 Cox Plate – Unplaced
2014 SWEYNESSE 49.5kg – NA – 121 Cox Plate – Unplaced
2014 WANDJINA 49.5kg – 117 Caulfield Guineas – 117 Cox Plate – Unplaced
2016 YANKEE ROSE 47.5kg – 109+ Spring Champ Stakes – 115 Cox Plate – 3rd
2017 ROYAL SYMPHONY 49.5kg – N/A – 116 Cox Plate – Unplaced
2019 CASTELVECCHIO 49.5kg – 121 Champagne Stakes – 124 Cox Plate – 2nd
2020 GRANDSLAM 49.5kg – 111 Caulfield Guineas – 92 Cox Plate – Unplaced
2021 ANAMOE 49.5kg – 123 Caulfield Guineas. 122 Cox Plate – 2nd
2021 CAPTIVANT 49.5kg – 121 Caulfield Guineas. 90 Cox Plate – Unplaced
So You Think and Shamus Award both won off similar setups.
Too far back in Guineas and led in Cox Plates.
So You Think 5th from back Caulfield Guineas and flashes late
So You Think Wins the Cox Plate from the front leading all the way
Shamus Aware settles back in Caulfield Guineas and flashes late
Shamus Award wins the Cox Plate leading from the front all the way
Militarize settles back in Caulfield Guinea and flashes late
It does make you think. 👀
Speed Map
Will the 3YOS push forward? Will they go back and hope the speed is on with Fangirl and Gold Trip? Will Zaaki force the speed out front? There are ALOT of unknowns with the map this year. Firstly thanks to Punters for having an easy-to-use speed map tool that I used. I was expecting a genuine tempo in the Caulfield Cup but no one could have expected that massive speed. I’m not expecting anything as genuine tempo wise here for the Cox Plate, but it will be genuine enough to give every horse a chance on the day. Imagine if King Colorado goes to the front and presses the tempo to give Gold Trip every chance Grandslam style? If they slacken the speed mid-race I’d love to see an early move from the back by the likes of Gold Trip and Fan Girl down the back and past the school to get into the race before it’s all over. This looks an epic and there are so many unanswered questions on the map. I’d be surprised to see them use up Romantic Warrior early. They will want the horse to settle compared to what happened at Flemington. Let’s see if the champ can get back to his best!
1. Romanic Warrior (59.0kg) – Barrier 7
Jockey: James McDonald
Timeform Rating: 127
Analysis: Last 8 runs prior to the turnbull saw Romantic Warrior record 120-127+ timeform ratings. Ran to just 118 at Flemington in the Turnbull. Has since been working very well and looks to have finally turned things around, but are we really expecting him to be able to repeat his personal best ratings of 127 coming off a 118? His last two 127’s were off 125 and 123+ in runs prior. He is certainly suited by the tight Moonee Valley track but is he a better horse going Clockwise the Hong Kong/Sydney way? A big factor that needs to be taken into account. I can see him running to 124 and being a factor in the race.
Expected Finishing Position: 3rd
2. Zaaki (59.0kg) – Barrier 12
Jockey: Damian Lane
Timeform Rating: 124
Analysis: Ran to 120 in the All Aged Stakes in April but since has not lived up to the hype. Getting on in age being an 8YO now, he was the model of consistency in 2022 with 123/122/123/121/123/121 and a rouge 113. Has run 107 and 118 this year. A step below his best, it’s hard to see based on previous years’ data combined with the outside barrier that Zaaki could run to his peak and win this.
Expected Finishing Position: 7th
3. Mr Brightside (59.0kg) – Barrier 2
Jockey: Craig Williams
Timeform Rating: 125
Analysis: Genuine top-class horse over 1400-1600m all year with ratings between 121 to 125+. Went from 125+ at Flemington in September back to just 118 last start in the King Charles going the Sydney way. Handles Dry and Wet tracks. Has never had a regression on the profile like we saw last start. Now expected to jump up to 2000m (above his best range) and need to potentially produce a career peak again? He is a damn good horse, but there alot of questions that need to be answered on the profile heading into this race. A repeat of two back is fighting out the finish. A repeat of last start doesn’t place. A repeat of three back probably isn’t good enough to win.
Expected Finishing Position: 5th
4. Alligator Blood (59.0kg) – Barrier 5
Jockey: Tim Clark
Timeform Rating: 124
Analysis: Mr consistent recorded a Timeform 124 rating peak over 1400m in February winning the G1 Futurity Stakes. Four runs this prep has gone 120, 121, 122 and last start over 2000m ran to 122. The win was obviously very good last start, but he certainly didn’t have to beat much in the Might and Power with a Melbourne Cup winner in 2nd, Duais in 3rd and Nonconformist who was 200-1 in the Caulfield Cup before scratching in 4th. Vow and Declare ran its best rating since 2020 in the race as well which is a little questionable. Will be leading them around the turn and will be the horse to run down. I like the horse but is 2000m his best distance? At least you won’t get stuck in traffic with this horse.
Expected Finishing Position: 4th
5. Gold Trip (59.0kg) – Barrier 8
Jockey: Mark Zahra
Timeform Rating: 126
GEAR CHANGE: BLINKERS ON AGAIN
Analysis: Two runs this prep. First up in the Turnbull smashed a lot of runners in this race today including the favourite running to 125+ Timeform rating. Last start was massive in the Caulfield Cup with top weight and ran to 126, a new career best. Perfect lead in here. Can expect with a clear run that he runs to 124-126 which has him in the realm of a rating most can’t achieve. The barrier is ideal, should be positioned 3/4 way back instead of out the back if pulled the widest barrier. Expect them to get moving early down the back if the speed isn’t already on. He can run below his best (124) or find some bad luck at critical times and still win this based on race history and expectations of other runners’ performances. Blinkers on again to keep him going straight when it matters most!
Expected Finishing Position: 1st
6. My Oberon (59.0kg) – Barrier 4
Jockey: Jamie Mott
Timeform Rating: 120
Analysis: Been knocking on the door all year in Group 1s with a 2nd beaten a nose in the Doncaster running to 120 and then last start 3rd in the King Charles. Not very well treated at WFA but expect him to run a bold race and run between the 117 and 120 rating range. Will beat quite a few home.
Expected Finishing Position: 9th
7. Pinstriped (59.0kg) – Barrier 11
Jockey: Ben Allen
Timeform Rating: 117
Analysis: 5th in the Toorak Handicap. Did beat Amelia’s Jewel but so did many on the day. Every horse infront was much better weighted on the day. Up to 2000m. He just isn’t the same gravy as these with all due respect. Take on.
Expected Finishing Position: 10th
8. Fangirl (57.0kg) – Barrier 9
Jockey: Zac Purton
Timeform Rating: 121
Analysis: Ran to a career peak last start in the King Charles recording a 121 rating. Best prior recorded was 117. 1600m up to 2000m. She is 5 now so may still have more improvement? Questionable if 2000m is her best and this might be an afterthought compared to the King Charles? Barrier will see her go back to last and try run over them late. Best seen on dryer tracks (gets that). Beat Mr Brightside but only ran 3 Timeform rating points higher… I hear you asking… because she was better weighted on the day and will be again here. So while the males typically will need to run to 124+ ratings, she could actually get away with a Timeform rating of 121 to win this. I’d rather back a horse off a career peak than a significant regression and we get that with her today. Big query on her at Moonee Valley going the Melbourne way. Didn’t exactly light up the track and give us confidence in prep runs.
Expected Finishing Position: 6th
9. Duais (57.0kg) – Barrier 1
Jockey: Damien Oliver
Timeform Rating: 120
Analysis: Currently rated 115 as hasn’t gone close to the rating ran in the Tancred in 2022 winning a Group 1 by nearly 4 lengths! Has run to 111, 115 and 111 the three runs this prep. I can’t see her going close here even from the barrier. Has gate issues at times also. Take on.
Expected Finishing Position: 11th
10. Victoria Road (56.5kg) – Barrier 6
Jockey: Blake Shinn
Timeform Rating: 114
Analysis: 3YO UK import trying to take on the big boys. Group 1 Breeders Cup winner over 1600m last prep. First up 2000m ran 7th of 8 running to 104. Last start well improved back to 1600m 3rd of 10 in Group 2 company and ran to 112 Timeform but I’d put a + next to it as the horse clearly with clear running should have ran 2nd ahead of Buckaroo and a better overall time. You can watch the final 800m on twitter as it wasn’t available on YouTube. Barrier 6 is obviously ideal for a good spot in running midfield at worst. 56.5kg so will still have to improve onwards ratings-wise to beat these. Not an International i’ve been keen on at any stage.
Expected Finishing Position: 8th
11. Militarize (49.5kg) – Barrier 3
Jockey: Zac Lloyd
Timeform Rating: 116
Analysis: How do we measure him up against these with 49.5kg? Shamus Award is the key measuring pole. He ran 115 in the Caulfield Guineas and led them all the way around and won recording a massive 124 Timeform Rating. Ran to 115+ in the Autumn winning two G1s in the Sires and Champagne Stakes. Came back and recorded 116 winning the Golden Rose. Cylinder ran to 115 in the Golden Rose and stepped back to 1200m and ran 123 in the Everest in 5th as a guide. Militarize was horrible in the Guineas but did find the line. Got back ran on but front runners controlled it. Barrier 3 the key today. Will get every chance on speed if he can stay, he will be hard to hold out and can run to the 122-125 range required. Read above what we said about what has won this race with 3YOs this decade.
Expected Finishing Position: 2nd
King Colorado (49.5kg) – Barrier 10
Jockey: Michael Dee
Timeform Rating: 113
Analysis: Ran to his peak first up in the Winx Stakes over 1400m. Went backwards the last two starts with 109 and 106. Surprised he was given a spot in the race but he did win a Group 1 back in June up in QLD over 1600m running to just 110. Looks the 2nd rate of the 3YOs. Take on. Feels like Grandslam 2.0 which we just love for Gold Trip.
Expected Finishing Position: 12th
Confidence Levels
Top Chances: Gold Trip
Very High Chances: Militarize, Romantic Warrior
High Chances: Alligator Blood, Mr Brightside, Fangirl
Medium Chances: Zaaki, Victoria Road
Low Chances: My Oberon, Pinstriped
Very Low Chances: Duais, King Colorado
Race Summary
It feels like one of the 3YOs will push the tempo out front (most likely King Colorado) and give us a genuine tempo in the 2023 Cox Plate. There are only a few runners in this race that have ever run up to the ratings required to win a strongly run Cox Plate and several I want to write off that I’m confident can never reach the level needed to win this. Gold Trip is the clear top pick with tempo on. Watch for him late like Lys Gracieux gobbling up the ground once straightened over the final 200m.
Militarize is the X Factor. Do they lead or they sit off the lead smoking the pipe? If they can get him to settle and the horse stays the distance he is obviously weighted to run a good race and has the So You Think / Shamus Award setup here. Romantic Warrior has to defy a VERY poor rating in the Turnbull and going the Melbourne way on a tight turning track, but his ratings clearly have him the one to beat at his very best. He just went so poorly last start that I can chance a smart 3YO to run past him weighted 9.5kg better off if they are any good.
Alligator Blood, Mr Brightside and Fangirl are the three that can obviously win but I’m betting around at this stage. If one of them wins, so be it – I won’t be surprised but I had the others higher. Zaaki and Victoria Road are in the, well they can win, I won’t be surprised, but I also will be surprised camp. My Oberon, Pinstriped, Duais and King Colorado I’m giving little to no chance. I don’t see Shamus Award in King Colorado so taking it on. It’s no secret on Twitter that we have a very large win bet coming in on Gold Trip in the Turnbull into Cox Plate Double and you aren’t shocked I’ve got the horse on top, but what made us make the bet was the horses peak runs of 124 Timeform. He went to 125+ and 126 after that bet was placed so he has gone far and beyond what we had hoped in two lead-in runs. Good luck punters. Looking forward to another epic Cox Plate, no matter the result.
Signed,
Drew Patchell