Horse Racing Tips for 7 August 2021

Doomben Race 3 – Cascade Plate – Class 3 – 1050m

1. Contemptuous: Ideal position in run just off tempo from barrier. Good first up record. Did record a -6.8 last prep at Doomben when third in a Class 3. Respect at price. I have a query over the PF data of the runner with that -6.8. That being said, Horse can run better than whats needed to win this on previous runs and if we downgrade to a -1.5 to -2.0
2. Family Star: Two trials on lead in. Big step up in grade back down from Townsville circuit races. Was winning some by 5L up there in open grade and 33.64 final 600m has to be respected. Long break the issue.
3. Kavak: Got gassed with a hard tempo last start at Eagle Farm. Down in class significantly on past two runs. Hasn’t broken 0.00 PF data outside of last start in past 5 runs when gassed out front and ran 13.04 final 200m.
4. Leadership Spill: Visor goes on. Last prep went out front and pushed tough tempos. Got it right winning a Class 3 first up last prep going -1.7 to the 600. Another stronger than that and the horse was outmatched final 400-200m. Has ability.
5. Tramonto: Concussion plates off a big gear change. 2nd in a Group 3 as a 3YO. Listed grade just missed last start. 62 days between runs. Data wise standout. Speed expected on out front, Will be running over the top late.
6. Aviemore: Pulled up with issues last start. When won BM-70 looked a nice type last prep. Looks one I want to take on pasted on first up run. Has potential but others more.
7. Shanjomi: Every chance out front last start at Eagle Farm in a similar grade. Data wise couldn’t run home faster than 24.5 and that won’t cut it here. Can’t be hear her.
8. Spirit House: Get back run on type. Has a big final 200m….. but has never broken 0.0 benchmark on PF data. Big ask to step up again.
9. Wicked Wench: Done nothing in career to suggest she can place. Take on.

Speed Map
Hot tempo in race with Family Star, Leadership Spill and Aviemore all contesting for a leading position. With Visors on, expecting Leadership Spill to be pushing the hot hot tempo

Chances
Top Chances: Tramonto,
High Chances: Contemptuous, Family Star
Medium Chances: Kavak, Leadership Spill
Low Chances: Aviemore, Shanjomi, Spirit House
Very Low Chances: Wicked Wench

Confidence: 80%
Comments: +0.5 expected to be the winning average for this race on past performances. Very keen on the Group 3 placed Tramonto at the odds while Family Star is also worth having something on at double figures.

Flemington Race 1 – 2530m – Open Handicap

1. Dr Drill: Held up at critical times and lost by 0.2L last start at course over 2000m. Big query at this distance for the horse producing best. Ran a rating required to win this, last start. Respect here. A main contender.
2. The Good Fight: Consistent staying type. 2800m back to 2500m but obviously a good type. Won very well from near back with 60kg and was a good staying type of Group 3 level in NZ and better on wetter surfaces. Won’t get track rating advantage today.
3. Schabau: Given no chance first up ridden out back and kept in a pocket. Finished off best of field. Hill off. Prebble on. Finds a race where he can be ridden out front if stable use the right tactics here, control tempo and push a strong final 800m to suit. Loves the distance here. Handles all track conditions but best on what receives here.
4. South Pacific: Big 3.8L win two back at course and distance. Tempo was ultra hard out front and suited him. Last start was gone near turn when poor. Some race notes say “tempo against” but was ran around slower than previous. Won’t get the speed here without leading and pushing own tempo.
5. One More Try: Got back and ran on well without threatening at Flemington last start. Career peak and needs to improve again.
6. Chouxting The Mob: Blinkers off. Not up to this. Even at distance. Did run 3rd in Adelaide Cup but can’t have here.
7. Killourney: Done nothing at all to date to suggest a step up to 2500m will change how the horse has run to date. Is the right trainer for it though. Won’t get a hard tempo to test him and find out unless Schabau does it.
8. Tolemac: Not the worst here. Cna go okay off a slow or medium tempo. Can’t back him.

Speed Map
Query over speed here with Tolemac the main speed runner and won’t push it. Any one of Schabau (I hope), South Pacific or Dr Drill could push tempo. Would expect and hope Schabau to take it up.

Chances
Top Chances: Schabau
High Chances: Dr Drill
Medium Chances: South Pacific
Low Chances: One More Try, Killourney, Tolemac
Very Low Chances: Chouxting The Mob

Confidence: 80%
Comments: -9.6 PF Data required on history to win this type of race. Only three runners in South Pacific, Schabau and Dr Drill have reached this on past runnings.
Schabau leading is a near on odds on chance for me here. Taking a position behind runners keen to bet all the way down to $3.80.

Flemington Race 7 – 2000m – BM78

1. Durston: 104 Timeform Rating over in the UK is more than enough to be a VERY good chance in a race of this grade. Get back run on type. Strong late. If speed is on here he will be very hard to hold out. If ridden more forward could be the 2nd most likely winning chance.
2. Vegas Knight: Best when speed is on and thats a query here. Doesn’t have a sit sprint nature. Can win if tempo hot even from bad barrier. Will be going forward. Might try push tempo to have best chance.
3. Serenade The Stars: Loves this kind of distance range but best in past has still been just around the mark for this. Struggle to back but could run a place at odds.
4. Tooradin: Continues to find one too good. Big distance step up but shouldn’t have any issues. Has to improve ratings wise but not alot. Has to be respected. Maps on speed.
5. Blandford Lad: Terrible first up on Heavy. Hasn’t ever handled Heavy. Ignore run. Long time between runs. Big jump in distance. Has won several times in past at this distance. If speed on can go okay but hard to back here.
6. Ghodeleine: Step in distance on 7 day back up from 1600m. Lead in runs have all been slowly run. Fitness edge with others.
7. Hosier: Hasn’t really run time at all in AU and came in with a 84 Timeform rating. Obviously three impressive wins though and keeps improving. Sit sprint last start. Can handle all tempos. May get an uncontested lead? If does probably $1.50 chance. If doesn’t, $2 seems right.
8. Zachaz: Consistent type -3 to -9 PF data range all prep. Handles distance and can run well. Barrier ideal as long as gets out at right time. Could be value in the race.
9. Irish Butterfly: Deep into prep and takes a massive step up in class. Hasn’t broken benchmark 0.0 on PF data last four runs. Hard to have.
10. Yulong Captain: Two poor runs this prep. Last prep measured up to this grade. Hard to see the improvement but on past potential could win.
11. Nerve Not Verve: Consistent type that loves this distance range. Three back ran a -9.3 at Flemington then went back to BM-70 grade where won well at Sandown going forward. At odds could surprise a few here.
12. Oh Mo: Get back run on type. Barrier will see similar here. Can run around the -3 PF data rating. Step up to 2000m for first time.
13. Orleans Rock: Surprise placing last start when ran very well after being slow out at course/distance last start. Beter barrier today, can settle more forward. Can win.
14. Toff Choice: Sit sprint type on past few wins. Hasn’t been a field of this quality and doesn’t have the ability to top these on previous runs this prep.
15. Influential Girl: Consistent type. Good enough 3rd last start. Has run -6 twice in the past four runs on the PF data ratings. Barrier hurts position in run.
16. Perennial: Last start winner in a terrible PF data rating. Hasn’t broken benchmark 0.0 on PF data recently. Lay.
17. Feuermond: Hard to see him finding the lengths on Hosier from last start, but if speed in the race will improve on last start effort. Needs the run.
18. Accountability: Hasn’t gone close in any runs this prep and failed to break benchmark 0.0 on PF data. No.
19. Sleepless: Not the worst runner in field with -2.6PF data rating three runs back. Handles distance. Barrier helps.

Speed Map
Hosier and Serenade The Stars the most likely leaders here. Don’t expect Hosier to push tempo unless taken on. Expect Serenade to keep the tempo solid.
Vegas Knight has led 3 of last 6 races. Will need to probably lead here to get right tempo for the horse.

Chances
Top Chances: Hosier, Durston
High Chances: Tooradin, Zachaz, Orleans Rock
Medium Chances: Vegas Knight, Ghodeleine, Nerve Not Verve
Low Chances: Serenade The Stars, Blandford Lad, Irish Butterfly, Yulong Captain, Influential Girl, Feuermond, Sleepless
Very Low Chances: Oh Mo, Toff Choice, Accountability

Confidence: 70%
Comments: Hosier is the one to beat, we know that. Data wise a -4 PF data is all thats needed via history to win this. Durstan with a 104 Timeform rating can hit this mark and has bested it twice before in the past over similar distances. At the double-figure odds, I have to take a chance that the Maher/Eustace yard give this quality stayer a chance with the right ride! I also have to back Zachaz at the odds. In the right PF data range zone and from the barrier gets the right spot in run with Kah onboard!

Flemington Race 3 – 1100m – BM70

1. Overkill: Blinkers off but Gelded which is a big bonus for this talented Gelding with the Maher/Eustace yard. Open grade winner at Moonee Valley two preps back. Last prep went around in top quality races and was ridden for a sit sprint. Expect they have found out this horse has to lead and be set alight and just hold out all swoopers to get the best out of him. Been in the right PF data range all last prep and then popped up with a -10 beaten by Sword of Mercy who has run -12/-11.5 and lots of -8 and above ratings. I think the -15 on the day was a little high by a couple points but that still has Overkill in a good position data wise.
2. Rolling Moss: On a short backup after failing at Moe. Not a bad horse and won three back at Sale but this is another level. Take on.
3. Zorro’s Dream: Got home solidly in a race shape against last start at Flemington. Will be ridden in a similar manner but with a little more urgency. More speed will be on here and suits. Lost by 0.1L to 0.3L in four of last 5 runs.
4. Lombardo: Blinkers off. Won okay enough first up at Morphetville on Heavy. Last prep ran a -6PF data rating when winning at Morphetville in easier grade of race by 3L. Ran a -4.2 PF rating down t he straight before that. Looks a top chance. On speed type. Broke 22 seconds in his maiden at Bendigo on a Good surface final 400m.
5. Modear: The value of the race? -7 to -9.5 PF data ratings the past three runs including a win at course over 1100m over Zorro’s Dream! Has ability. May have the best final 600m in the race off a sit sprint tempo.
6. Elite Legacy: Bm-78 winner three preps back. Not bad first up in much easier and failed to place last two starts. Others preferred.
7. Kalashani Lad: Hard to have on recent form. Not gone closer than 2.5L from a win in last 6 runs and PF data suggests can’t win.
8. Lady Pluck: Looked a type to follow when came over as a 3YO from TAS. Didn’t go on with it last prep. Changed stable and only fair first up. Needs to improve. Return to 2019 form would be more than enough – don’t leave out of your F4s.
9. Pioneer River: Fairly beaten last start by Deep Speed but 2.6L margin unfair and rider stopped and cost at least a length. Loves the Flemington straight and loves to sit sprint home. Can run 33 final 600m. Expect them to ride midfield rather than on speed like last start when gassed late.
10. Ashford Street: Gone through the grades this prep Maiden to BM-58 to 2nd in Open class at Caulfield! Ran a -7.1 on speed behind Sacred Palace. Win won’t shock anyone.
11. High Risk: Close 3rd down straight three back running PF -8.8. Two runs since average at best data wise but did win at Sandown in a poor PF data time. Needs to find best form again here. Could be coming to end of prep already?
12. Upper East Side: Hasn’t broken benchmark 0.0 PF data all prep or last prep. Can’t be with.
13. La Bella Costa: Nice run 3rd last start at Caulfield and three back at Flemington behind Modear and Zorro’s Dream with a -9.9 PF data rating. Looks a great one for the F4. Without a change of tactics won’t be running past Modear or Zorro’s Dream today.
14. Zesty Belle: Just missed first up at Caulfield and then regressed last start. Has been in career peak form though. Return to best if can produce it down the straight has the horse a solid honest chance.
15. Teramia: Hasn’t broken benchmark 0.00 PF all prep. Take on at all. Looks well unders.
16. Abseiler: Thrown into a G1 last prep. Ran well enough in the Listed Blue Diamond Prelude for 4th and won previous start down straight. Obviously had to have trained on but hard to take a 2YO up to 3YO in this grade immediately. Ambitious.
17. Messerschmitt: Blinkers on. Two runs this prep not good enough. Best of last few preps probably still not good enough. Take on.
18. Madame Boilli: Best career runer last start and beaten 4L at Caulfield. Take on.

Speed Map
Can’t see too many horses pushing a strong tempo here. Confuses us even more with who wins!

Chances
Top Chances: Lombardo, Overkill,
High Chances: Modear, Zorro’s Dream, Zesty Belle
Medium Chances: Pioneer River, Ashford Street, La Bella Costa
Low Chances: Elite Legacy, Lady Pluck, High Risk, Abseiler, Messerschmitt
Very Low Chances: Rolling Moss, Kalashani Lad, Upper East Side, Teramia, Madame Boilli

Confidence: 60%
Comments: Expected -2.4 PF data required on the previous average to win this. Wide-open race. Expected to go into this to be backing one of Lombardo or Overkill but i can see 3-4 more types winning. Staying out at odds currently on favs. Modear or similar may get some of my money but nothing officially.

Murray Bridge Race 7 – 1000m – BM-60

2. Elegist: Blinkers first time! Right stable coming off a good run from the back at Sandown when missed the start and ran on. Barrier 6 can position closer to speed and be hard to hold out.
3. Just Kappy: Will be in the finish data wise if repeat of last start effort. Will be trying to hold on final 100m speeding along out front. Probably over the odds.
4. Kishstar: Big step up in grade again. Hasn’t gone close to breaking benchmark 0.0 PF data. Has some ability though.
5. Lohn Ranger: Beaten a long way last start coming off an okay run at Morphetville the run prior. Best from past
6. Rusty Halo: Maiden winner. Well up in grade. Has ability but big jump in class. $20+ for a reason. Doesn’t look special.
7. Sitting Bull: Blinkers off. Hasn’t broken 0.00 PF benchmark this prep from several runs. Can place. Can’t be on to win.
8. Comrade Bill: Lightly raced. Maiden winner in country. Beaten in BM-54 last start. Hard to have on sectionals.
9. Archway to Heaven: Hasn’t gone close to a place all prep and PF data can’t see the horse getting within 3L of the winner.
10. Miss Mucinni: Well backed last start as favourite and didn’t impress sectionals wise. Looked light had some potential last prep. Have to take on at price big time.
11. Skara Brae: Well beaten by Kishstar last start. Others preferred.
12. Gatsby’s Girl: Maiden winner. Not the worst here on previous runs. Been up a long time this prep took several races to get maiden win. Can’t see the improvement.
13. Ready Sunshine: 11 year old and can’t see the improvement from the nearly retired horse.
14. Effortkat: Maiden winner in a pretty average field first up and well beaten in similar last start at Gawler. Has to improve.
15. Akkacan: Best from previous starts has him a chance. Hard to have though and hasn’t won for ages.

Speed Map
Expecting a strong tempo here with Just Kappy pushing faster than the benchmark to up to 3L faster to 600m!

Chances
Top Chances: Elegist
High Chances: Just Kappy
Medium Chances: Kishstar, Miss Mucinni, Akkacan
Low Chances: Rusty Halo, Sitting Bull, Skara Brae, Gatsby’s Girl, Effortkat
Very Low Chances: Comrade Bill, Archway to Heaven, Ready Sunshine

Confidence: 85%
Comments: On history a -1.1 PF data rating is required to win here. Not many good horses at all with more than half the field near on no chance.
Very keen on backing Elegist here off the -2.3 PF data run at Sandown. This is a much easier race, blinkers go on and we are getting a price!