Horse Racing Tips for 24 July 2021

Morphetville Race 4 – 1200m – BM86

1. Dexelation: Majority of wins in the past have been on soft tracks and is 1/1 on heavy. Suited. Two top quality rating runs last start and three back at Caulfield and Flemington with -7.3 and -7.4 PF ratings. This is the lowest rated race the horse has been in and with a 3kg claimer onboard, looks weighted to win. Only query is the gate – could get 3-wide but can still win doing that. Has the data-wise ability off a slow or medium or fast tempo to beat all these home.
2. Usain Bowler: Quality horse in his day. New stable and hadn’t been seen coming into this prep since start of 2020. Wasn’t terrible first up but last two runs have been bad. Can’t recommend it.
3. Street Life: Failed last start and had every chance to finish off and run on the run prior and didn’t. The run three and five back were standouts winning a Listed race and coming 3rd in a Group 3. This horse beat home Viridine three runs back! Value at odds.
4. Street Tough: Change of trainer hasn’t seen this quality gelding come on. First up the run he had at his best he should have got the win. yes, he should have won last start… no doubt about it… but was expected in a BM-78. Up in grade again, and finds a heavier track. Deserves to be near favourite and could be hard to run down.
5. Pindaric: Won five in a row. Hasn’t gone close PF data-wise to what’s needed here and last three runs has failed to break 23.5 final 400m and 12 final 200m. Big jump in class i want to take on.
6. Sir Kalahad: 5.5L winner three back at Sandown in similar grade then beaten 5L and 7L last two starts. Only good run on record was off a very fast tempo out front with 51.5kg onboard on a heavy track. Horse handles all going.
7. Extreme Thrill: Under the radar run behind Street Tough two back and then had every chance last start in lightly harder but couldn’t get close to Maha. Back in class. Maps well enough from barrier 2. Hasn’t broken 0.00 PF data all prep. Suited by a sit-sprint race.
8. Flying Award: Change of trainer during this prep after change of trainer last prep. Got too far back last start behind Pindaric when missed the start by 3L. Only lost by 1L at end. Last prep ran 0.1L 2nd in a Group 3. Clearly has some ability.
9. Aiguilette: Got back to last start and beaten a half head by Pindaric when last seen. Four back went -3.2 on PF data and has run into slow races since. Has ability but step up in grade again. Can win.
10. Harbouring: Can’t win a BM-54. Can’t win this.

Speed Map
Pindaric and Sir Kalahad are expected to be on speed. Pinadric’s rider Eaton won’t want to push a tempo faster than benchmark tempo while Sir Kalahad to win will want speed on. It will be up to Holder on Sir Kalahad to push the tempo here. Expecting benchmark to 3L above benchmark speed.

Top Chances: Dexelation
High Chances: Street Tough, Street Life, Flying Award
Medium Chances: Pindaric, Sir Kalahad, Extreme Thrill, Aiguilette
Low Chances: Usain Bowler
Very Low Chances: Harbouring

Confidence 85%
Comments: Expected winning rating for PF here is -4.6. Tempo looks suited to replicate this data figure so i agree. Dexelation has run -7.3 and -7.4 two of past three runs. I’m keen to step in at the price. If there is a sit sprint tempo on, Dexelation will be able to get a slot upfront. If speed is on, the field will string out and Dexelation will slot in from the barrier. Go Go Scarlet So! The value runner in the race is Street Life who ran a -3.0 three back and -8.0 five back. The horse ran Listed grade and placed in a Group 3 beating home the Group 1 placed Viridine.

Caulfield Race 6 – 3YO Open Handicap – 2412m

1. Token Spirit: Strong win last start at Flemington and prior win at Sandown had the writing on the wall as well. Gone to a new level at 2500m and any speed on is suited to him! Can win off a slow or fast tempo is the key. Kah off Kelly on is a ‘negative’ but 3kg claim is key here back to 57kg. PF data last start of -9.0 which is right on what’s needed over history here. Most haven’t gone close to this in race.
2. Vintage Diesel: Huge step up in distance off a Class 1 win. Shown nothing data-wise yet would need to improve significantly. Not the trainer for it?
3. Murrumbidgee River: Third up and straight to 2400m looks a big jump. Nice enough run as favourite at 1800m last start when 3rd. May very well be wanting the distance but this horse hasn’t gone faster than +4.1 PF yet. Couldn’t break 23.5 final 400m last start on the soft 7 over 1800m, while Token broke 23 final 400m on a soft 7 over 2400m two back as a comparison. Looks unders.
4. Capricorn Ridge: 6L Class 1 winner last start. Prior to last start had not recorded a run PF data wise better than 7.1 and over 2000m last prep was beaten in a BM-64. I can’t have this horse. I think the data is out of the realm of what was needed to win on the day. The 2nd placed horse had not gone faster than -0.9 to that point and recorded -8.0 so I want to take it on.
5. Exhibition: Couldn’t win in BM-58 company or Class 1’s this prep over distance. Not up to this.
6. Eco Warrior: Wasn’t suited by the tempo last start. If gets it closer here can be a player. Not one I want to be with being beaten fairly last two starts by Token but if Token fails could be the winner.
7. Za’Ex: Main contender to the favourite today. Last start over 2000m ran on well and looks the type wanting 2400m. Query on ground. -5.6 PF data wise last start.
8. Barrington Manor: Hasn’t gone close to what’s needed PF data-wise. Maiden winner only. Beaten 7L in Bm-64 last start.
9. Myers Reward: Blinkers off. Not the worst horse here. Maiden winner. Beaten 6 and 7L last two runs over 2000m.
10. Cru Classe: Bred for further and gets it here. Handles wetter tracks. Big jump in class last start and ran well considering when 5th at Caulfield. Wouldn’t surprise if won.
11. Dubai Moon: Looks to be aimed at hurdles so they expect he can handle the distance. 2000m last start fairly beaten in maiden. Hard to take here even if wants distance.
12. Equine Philospher: Couldn’t win a maiden last start over 2400m. Had a few things go wrong but it wasn’t really a distance race with the time run. Can’t have here.
13. Bow Thruster: Couldn’t win a maiden. Not the worst runner here though. Was not backed last start drifted in a maiden.

Speed Map
Hard to see where the speed comes from here which is the concern –
only leader types are the ones that have terrible data ratings and
don’t go fast. Expecting a slower than benchmark speed to the 600m.

Top Chances: Token Spirit
High Chances: Za’Ex
Medium Chances: Murrumbidgee River, Eco Warrior
Low Chances: Vintage Diesel, Capricorn Ridge, Cru Classe
Very Low Chances: Exhibition, Barrington Manor, Myers Reward, Dubai
Moon, Equine Philospher, Bow Thruster

Confidence 80%
Comments: I want them to just jump out of the barriers and go to the front with Token Spirit as nothing will run it down, but we don’t know what they are going to do. If they settle last on Token Spirit and the speed isn’t on early, I’d be laying out all my bets on the horse, but it’s clearly the superior horse here for mine and i want to be with it.

Rosehill Race 9 – BM78 – 1200m

1. Lancaster Bomber: Found a slow tempo last start at Randwick and 3-wide the trip ran a good 2nd. Back to a dryer surface. First up ran -9.3 PF data overall. Last prep best was -2.5. Can lead can sit midfield. From barrier will want to go forward and potentially lead to win this.
2. Rule the World: 1600m type that has quality runs over 1400m+. Can run well but top weight here over unsuitable distance.
3. Above and Beyond: Won a BM-78 two back before a break. best over further.
4. Tycoonist: Big step up today. Won an easier BM-72. Consistent type that records -3.3 to -5.0 PF data all prep. Better on this type of surface than super wet. Can go forward like last two runs from the barrier. Query 1200m though this deep into prep.
5. N/A
6. Smart Image: 50 days between runs. Handles all surfaces but best when a bit of give in-ground and gets it here. -8.4 PF data last start but is that beyond what was actually recorded. Better position in run today. Has to be considered.
7. Snitzify: Hasn’t broken benchmark PF data all last prep. Take on here.
8. Rustic Steel: BM-72 winner last start. Data wise about 2-3L below what’s needed here. Has to improve. 3YO so could do so. Can’t discount but I want to take it on.
9. Tony Be: Moved to Wallers stable after being in NZ and competing in Group races. Not a 1200m horse on last prep runs. Got up over 2100m when a close 1.2L 5th. If he can sprint, so be it. I’ll take him on here.
10. Cuban Royale: Last prep went close in this grade but over the 1300-1400m distances. Has won over 12050 last prep. First up fair 4th and recorded nice data from the back off a slow run. Blinkers on and barrier key. Can win.
11. He’s A Hotshot: First up run was okay, but failed next two starts to do anything off slow tempos. Not up to this.
12. Up Trumpz: Wide at Wagga – ignore last start on the heavy track. Two back at Rosehill got very far back off a stronger tempo out front and ran home solidly for a -6.9 PF was recorded. Low weight onboard. Won’t be going forward from the barrier and will need to be impressive from back to win.
13. Secretively: Hasn’t done anything in recent years. Slow start and did work but was slowly run race. Best in past was enough to be considered here. Pay attention if backed on the day.

Speed Map
Snitzify, Rule the World, Tycoonist and Rustic Steel look the main speed angles.
Expecting around average to 3L faster than average tempo.

Top Chances: Lancaster Bomber, Smart Image
High Chances: Tycoonist, Cuban Royale
Medium Chances: Rustic Steel, Secretively
Low Chances: Rule the World, Above and Beyond, Tony Be
Very Low Chances: Snitzify, He’s A Hotshot

Confidence 75%
Comments: PF -3.8 expected to win this on past results. Lancaster Bomber and Smart Image hit the data figures required while Cuban Royale maps perfectly for the right run. All three are $7-$19 and i’d want to be on all of them here.