Horse Racing Tips for 17 July 2021

Flemington Race 2 – 1400m – 3YO Open Handicap

1. Immortal Love: Good type as a 2YO winning well at Flemington.
Failed to go on with it this prep with no better than a -4.5 PF data
last 3 runs. Has to find another gear.
2. Japery: Well fancied type in first prep and has been up a long
time. Best recent run over a shorter distance was a -6.6 on the PF data.
Can run well but has to find more to win this.
3. Mark of the Man: UK import. Cecond up ran a close 2nd in this grade
from an off-speed position. Ready to peak 4th up. Ran a -9.1 PF data
rating in that 2nd placing that is close to what’s needed to win this
based on history. Right jockey for a backmarker.
4. National Choice: Short backup after a mid-week failure as favourite
at Sandown. Data wise hasn’t run faster than a -1.1 PF data this prep.
Group 3 placed for a reason but this is a big step in grade again.
5: Sir Davy: Should have won last start in listed grade at course over
1200m. Step back up to 1400m should be ideal. Right stable. Right
jockey. Loves speed on. Data-wise last start shoulda been around a
-6.0 PF data. Has to improve but clearly a winning hope.
6. Basarwa: NZ import. On speed did alot of work after being slowly
out in a fast run race last start and kept on going for a brave 2nd.
Will improve for that run. Big shot.
7. Divine Diosa: Winner two back at Caulfield beating Basarwa. Last
start just missed at course and distance behind Foxy Frida. Data wise
gone from -6.0 to -9.0 off a stronger tempo and the final 400m times
were slick. Good barrier from 8 to get the right spot and looks the
one to beat.
8. I’m Thunderstruck: -7.5 PF data last prep in a G2. Every chance as
$1.60 favourite last start at Caulfield off a genuine tempo and
couldn’t beat two here home. Has to improve. Will be backed. Poor
barrier.
9. Tuvalu: Big query horse. Won very well at Sandown last prep to end
it with a 2.5L victory recording a -6.4 PF data rating. Clearly going
to be hard to hold out if improved between preps. Right stable. Brown
off a negative but Bates riding well for this stable overall.
10. Yulong Justify: Two Synthetic wins on record. -3.0 PF data best.
Big jump in class/grade and onto grass first time. Take on.
11. Crestani: Class 1 winner by a large margin at Sandown on lead in
here. Ran a -5.3 PF data from out front controlling the race. Can be
on speed again low weight but this is much harder.
12. Grand Pope: Continues to run well this prep. BM-58 up to Open
grade almost scored two back at Flemington when well backed on the day
recording a -8.3 PF data rating. Not the worst hope at the prices.
13. Hickok: Sandown BM-64 winner. Stormed home from outback off a
slowish tempo out front. Horse has the ability and may go extra well off a
storm tempo. Big query has to step up.
14. Thunder Point: Felt he had his chances last start. Datawise hard
to be with. Others preferred.

Speed Map
Tuvalu to lead with likes of Basarwa and Japery wanting to be on speed also.
Expecting genuine tempo around -3 PF datawise above benchmark to the 600m.

Top Chances: Divine Diosa
High Chances: Sir Davy, Basarwa, Tuvalu
Medium Chances: Mark of the Man, I’m Thunderstruck, Hickok
Low Chances: Immortal Love, Japery, Yulong Justify, Crestani, Grand Pope
Very Low Chances: National Choice, Thunder Point

Confidence: 75%
Comments: Tuvalu is too short first up to be backing. Datawise it is the most
likely chance and favourite if takes the step up but I’m happy to be
against at the price currently.
Divine Diosa looks to offer the most value and I’m keen to play the
horse E/W. We have a quality horse that will sit just off a hot tempo
and has recorded the right data points close to whats needed to win
this in the last two runs.
I won’t let Mark of the Man run around for me at what will probably
end up triple-figure odds on the day.

Randiwck Race 5 – 1600m – BM78

1. Morton’s Fork: Hasn’t won in a while. Back in grade significantly
again, the lowest grade in years. Good barrier. First up run was poor
though. Can win though.
3. Criminal Code: Huge disappointment last start – was lame. Previous
run at course over 1300m was much better. Last prep did record a -12.8
PF data rating off a very strong tempo out front over 1800m. If
returns to top form clearly a top hope.
4. Papal Warrior: Won two in a row recording -4.5 and -3.3 PF data
ratings. Solid ratings but this is another step up again. In the right
zones data-wise.
5. Cognac: UK Import on 2nd prep in AUS. Showed little first prep and
hasn’t shown anything this prep to date. Needs further and getting up
there.
6. Intuition: Four runs this prep and hasn’t gone closer than 5L to a
win. Has one peak run on past record to suggest could have some
ability. Not for mine here.
7. Nyami: Won two in a row before failing last start in a much higher
prizemoney race. Data from this prep has me looking elsewhere.
8. Cafe Royal: Won two back at Warwick Farm and wasn’t bad last start
at Rosehill for 2nd. Data wise has a load more required to be winning
this. Is the type to make a step up again.
9. Oakfield Missile: Won very well ending last prep with a -11.8 PF
data rating. hasn’t found a race with speed on all prep and is dying
for the step up to 1600m. Won’t get the desired killer speed out front
and poor barrier, but will be rattling home late if they take each
other on out front.
10. Kobe Rocks: Consistent type recording -4 to -6.6 PF data ratings
the last 4 runs. Ideal barrier, on speed type. Will be out front at
the 200m and hard to get past.
11. Matowatakpe: Good run last start off a hot tempo out front and was
able to grind out a victory. Won’t get such a speed today but has to
be considered a live chance on that run.
12. Bring The Ransom: Won last start with a -2.7PF data rating on the
Renso. Previous runs were poor. Can improve onwards like last time out
but needs to find a length or two.
13. St Covet’s Spirit: Hard horse to catch and even harder to get a
win with. Non-winner. Can run well based on data. Last start was very
poor.

Speed Map
Cafe Royal most likely to lead while Kobe Rocks the only other on-pace
leader type.

Top Chances: Kobe Rocks, Criminal Code
High Chances: Papal Warrior, Oakfield Missile
Medium Chances: Cafe Royal, Bring The Ransom
Low Chances: Cognac, Morton’s Fork, Nyami, Matowatakpe
Very Low Chances: Intuition, St Covet’s Spirit

Confidence: 75%
Comments: Kobe Rocks and Criminal Code both map on the pace and look to have
ideals runs. They will both enjoy the track conditions and both be
hard to get past with solid final 600m runs in their legs.
Oakfield Missile is the value of the race. Loves the step up in distance.

Randwick Race 6 – 1200m – BM72

1. Above and Beyond: First up. Doesn’t win often but always seems to
get at least one win a prep. Data wise he has the ability if returns
at top. Better over further.
2. Kosciusko: On speed runner. Poor first up. Previous preps data wise
even at best is slightly below this. Won’t told on even if kicks clear
at 200m.
3. Catapult: Got too far back first-up when ran on very well to record
a nice PF data time. Start cost him any chance. Better start here
could see him winning.
4. Henschel: Big step up in grade off a Kembla Grange win in 68 grade.
Data wise the win was only fair and PF data wise he needs to find at
least another length to my eye.
5. Get The Idea: Won a poor rating Bm-72 first up at Warwick Farm.
Hasn’t gone close data wise the past 6 starts to what’s needed here.
Big take on.
6. Just Field: Last three starts where she has finished she recorded
-4.3 to -5.0 PF data ratings. Just missed last start as well at
Rosehill when 2nd after getting checked at a critical stage. Maps
ideal from barrier 4 and track condition suits. Big long straight only
helps also.
7. Epic Dan: Hasn’t seen a fast run race for five starts. When he did
last he won it at Canterbury. Has to be considered on that run alone.
Can’t consider on others!
8. Wander: One of many to run well last start at Rosehill – Was held
up at critical stages just like Just Field. Can improve and run well
here again. barrier ideal for a more forward spot also.
9. Buckin’ Beauty: Wide last start off a hottish tempo. Didn’t finish
off super well but showed some ability. Was best career run and others
here beat it. Hard to have.
10. Bombasay: Trials well and doesn’t perform on race day. Hard to
suggest off any run this prep.
11. Lord Zoulander: Won two back at Hawksbury. Last five runs
considered he has to find lengths on this field that he hasn’t shown
prior to today.
12. Miss Fox: Consistent type. Always putting in good merit data wise
runs. best last prep was 1L behind Hulk. On that, in with a shot here.
On runs this prep, has to improve.
13. Leave Me Some: Hasn’t broken the PF benchmark of 0 the last four
runs. Best is still a little below this. Struggle to suggest.
14. Kawaikini: Nice enough type. Best form last prep sit sprint home
would feature here. Two runs to date have only been fair.
15. Designer Maid: Data-wise has to find about 9 lengths to feature in
the finish before counting in last start. Was a much better run but
horse was very tired late. Hard to suggest.
16. Zidane: Hasn’t won in a long time and won’t be changing that
today. Triple figures for a reason.

Speed Map
Expecting an even to slightly above even tempo to the 600m. Every horse
has a chance.

Top Chances: Just Field
High Chances: Wander
Medium Chances: Catapult, Henschel, Miss Fox
Low Chances: Above and Beyond, Kosciusko, Epic Dan, Leave Me Some,
Kawaikini, Designer Maid
Very Low Chances: Get The Idea, Buckin’ Beauty, Bombasay, Lord Zoulander, Zidane

Confidence: 80%
Comments: Just Field and Wander are standouts in this market for me.
Expect them to be slightly further forward than most maps suggest,
they have the gates, settle well 1 off the rails.
Both will be storming home and love the wet.