Royal Ascot Day 1 – 2021

Royal Ascot – Race 1 – 1600m – Queen Anne Stakes – Group 1

1. Accidental Agent: 127 Timeform rating last start when fairly beaten in easier company. Has some ability but its lengths below this grade. Take on.
2. Bless Him: 125 Timeform rating. Has to find lengths to be competitive. Couldn’t recommend even for a place.
3. Lope Y Fernandez: 3rd in G1 company in the Breeders Cup Mile. Won well first up this prep then failed last start. 134 Timeform rating has the horse an obvious chance if favourite is below average today.
4. Lord Glitters: Consistent type. G1 winner in Meydan. Beaten 12 lengths last start back in the UK. 132 Timeform Rating the best of his past 5 runs. Has to find more.
5. Order of Australia: G1 winner in the Breeders Cup Mile before 6th in the Hong Kong Mile. 135 Timeform rating best on record which is the highest of anyone else If improved between preps could be the main danger.
6. Palace Pier: Data wise he is in a league of his own. His only defeat recently was at course and distance last year when recording his only Timeform rating below 140 in his past 5 attempts with a 131+. Every other horse in this field has a peak performance of 135. In a league of his own.
7. Pogo: Horrible last start and just has to be forgiven. Won nicely enough first up in a four-horse race recording a 129 Timeform rating. Has to improve significantly.
8. Prince Eiji: Beaten in listed grade by a nose last start at course and distance on a firming track. Ran an 127 Timeform Ratings and would need to find lengths on that performance.
9. Regal Reality: Most likely going to be setting the pace in this race out the front. Steps back up to G1 class after some solid enough G2 results last year. Data wise hit 135 twice in his last three runs and has to be respected as a chance in favourite out markets.
10. Sir Busker: Listed grade the last two starts this prep and has failed to live up to the hype of last prep. Seems to have gone backwards.
11. Top Rank: Listed grade winner two back in a Timeform 134 rating before going up to G1 class last start and running a place beaten 7L Has shown the ability to be considered a chance in favourite out markets but has to return to top form.

Speed Map
Regal Reality will push the base on the rail side while Pogo will be the pace angle in the middle and Palace Pier rail side. Be surprised if they split up unless there is clear bias in peoplese eyes on the day.
Going to be a moderate speed, not expecting a strong tempo

Chances
Top Chances: Palace Pier
High Chances: Order of Australia
Medium Chances: Lope Y Fernandez, Regal Reality,
Low Chances: Lord Glitters, Sir Busker
Very Low Chances: Prince Eiji, Pogo, Bless Him, Accidental Agent

Confidence: 80%
Comments: Palace Pier is a dead set moral as they come. The horse just has to run close to its best which it has done so 4 of the last 5 starts and it will be near on impossible to beat. The query comes in with the potential with a lack of pace in the race which may prevent you stepping into the short quote.
The only chance of Palace losing ratings wise is for Order of Australia to improve onwards this prep and find 2-3 more rating points while Palace regresses.
At the price, i’ll be sitting out and watching. There isn’t enough value for me in Order of Australia either to win – if you are sick and want to play the $2.30 to place with BF right now seems backable.

Royal Ascot – Race 3 – 1600m – King’s Stand Stakes – Group 1

1. Arecibo: Failed to place two back in a Group 3. Last start win in much easier grade on a softer track. Handles Firm okay. 123 Timeform Rating is well below whats needed to place here. Ridden by Frankie, Tom and Oisin last three starts. Downgrade to Spencer for a reason.
2. Battaash: Lord of the 5 furlongs the past several years in the UK. Finally matured and had no issues last prep with temperament in the yard as the years prior the horse would consistently lose a race before it started. Three runs last prep. Data wise, two of those simply just win this. Last start run on a softer track was below his best but he still won and that data rating would be in the finish here. Firm track is ideal. Has 140+ Timeform ratings. On last year we put him at 137 today. Well above the next rest in the race.
3. Extravagant Kid: G1 winner at Meydan in the Al Quoz at big odds running a 126 Timeform rating. Big step up data wise required again today and back to 5 furlongs. Looks under the odds and no race-week Lasix.
4. Harry’s Bar: Listed grade second last start on lead-in. Best in the past was a 124+ Timeform rating in February. Hasn’t broken 120 since. Hard to have close to winning on that form. Better over further.
5. King’s Lynn: Winner over 5F last start in listed grade. 123 Timeform rating that day and it was a career peak. Needs to improve onwards again on a firmer track. Hard to suggest the extra 10-15 rating points.
6. Maven: Very inconssitent type. Two best wins have come outside of Group races. Goes well at distance and 123/124 timeform rating is where he is running around when going well. Has to improve to measure up here.
7. Ornate: Best runs on All-weather. Back to firmer tracks, Highest rated run of 114 this prep. Hard to be near today.
8. Oxted: G1 winner last prep with a 131+ Timeform rating. Three runs this prep saw him beaten including last two starts as favourite. Better over the 6F than 5F and hasn’t recorded better than 121 Timeform rating this prep.
9. Stone of Destiny: Hasn’t won all prep outside of Group company with 120+ Timeform ratings. Big step up in class. Handles 5F but struggle to suggest in this grade.
10. Glamorous Anna: Last prep 117 Timeform rating when 4th in a G3 over 5F. First up was terrible. Big price for a reason, can’t win.
11. Keep Busy: 2nd last prep in a G1 with a 127 Timeform Rating. Ignore first up on Heavy. Much firmer today will suit. Has the ability to run well.
12. Liberty Beach: Ended last prep beaten 0.3L in a G1 over 5F on Heavy. Firs tup got the win at Haydock returning with a 120+ Timeform rating. Recorded 128 last prep.
13. Que Amoro: 2nd last prep at York in a G1 before running poorly last prep to finish off the campaign. One peak run on record in that G1 which was a 127 Timeform rating. Needs to be at her best.
14. Acklam Express: Horrible last start pulled up. 3rd in G1 at Meydan runs prior. Consistent around the 125 Timeform rating. Handles 5F and handles firming tracks.
15. Ubettabelieveit: 116 Timeform rating. 3rd in a G2 in USA is best on record for this horse. Struggle to see going close to a place.
16. Winter Power: Big improver to win well at York first up over the 5L. Ran a 133+ Timeform rating to suggest she has gone to the next level this prep and is a main contender today. Looks the only rival that can take on Batttaash.

Speed Map
Que Amoro the pace angle with Glamorous Anna both on the rails side of the course. Expect most to clump together following that crew with Battaash potentially being led up by the likes of Liberty beach and Ornate to his outside.
Tempo will be on par average with past runnings if not more extreme early on! Best horses will win and high level ratings as a result out of the race. Angle is to go for high rating horses that have handled the speed in the past.

Chances
Top Chances: Battaash
High Chances:
Medium Chances: Extravagant Kid, Oxted, Keep Busy, Liberty Beach, Que Amoro
Low Chances: Arecibo, King’s Lynn, Maven, Stone of Destiny, Acklam Express
Very Low Chances: Harry’s Bar, Ornate, Glamorous Anna, Ubettabelieveit

Confidence: 85%
Comments: Keen on a two horse play here.
Battaash is the one to beat. As mentioned previously, 3 of his last 4 runs Timeform Ratings wise just win this without a horse improving significantly again such as Winter Power. If he runs to his best, he just wins.
Winter Power was super impressive winning at York last start and is the standout from the rest of the contenders. Happy to saver Winter Power here.

Royal Ascot – Race 4 – 1600m – St James’s Palace Stakes – Group 1

1. Battleground: Held up first up and never really got into it at Newmarket when $6 favourite on the day in the G1. Previous prep G2 winner over the distance and a good 2nd in the Breeders Cup Juv Turf. Clearly has ability and will be hard to beat if right today. 129 Timeform Rating best on record would be enough to respect here but does need to improve.
2. Bullace: Winner first up in much easier company then beaten on Heavy last start in a listed grade race. 127p Timeform rating last start suggests more to come if can improve.
3. Chindit: G3 winner first-up at Newbury then 5th in the G1 at Newmarket last start. Being outback last start wasn’t the place to be and finished off well. 127 Timeform rating range horse.
4. Highland Avenue: Beaten on Heavy last start as favourite at Sandown in Listed grade but has consistently run around the 130 Timeform rating mark. Has ability.
5. La Barrosa: G3 winner in the past. Well beaten in G1 company last two attempts. 128 Timeform rating two runs back on firmer track.
6. Lucky Vega: G1 winner in the past. Three runs this prep with the best being a 135 Timeform rating which is very close to the average required to win this race in the past. Was unsuited by Soft last start, ignore that run and rate on best. Will be hard to beat today.
7. Maximal: Steps back from 2000m to 1600m off a 123 Timeform rating run which is near his peak. Hard to see the big improvement needed to measure up here.
8. Mostahdaf: Three runs for three wins to date. Heavy track win over Bullace last start with a 129 Timeform rating. Can improve again, not expecting a sharp improvement to 137 range but if runs around the 132 is going to be very competitive.
9. Naasmoos: 6L winner last start at Sandown over this distance. 17L winner four back. Has shown massive ability in the past and can put in sensational runs. Ran 128+ Timeform rating last start and has improvement in his bones. Big chance.
10. Ontario: Very poor last start when dead last. Previous start at newmarket had his chances when 3rd running 120 Timeform rating. 100-1 for a reason.
11. Poetic Flare: Started 2nd favourite last start at The Curragh when traded $1.18 in run beaten by a neck second in G1 class. Ran a 136 Timeform rating which has him well in here. Won a G1 first up at newmarket and beaten 2L 2nd up at Longchamp as favourite in the G1. Has run 136 rating twice this prep. Impossible to bet against.
12. Thunder Moon: Best run last prep was a 130+ Timeform rating in September. First up fell out of it very fast beaten a long way. Tough to suggest return to form and best.
13. Wembley: Best run last prep 130 Tiemform rating when 2nd in G1 at Newmarket. Has the ability on record but last two starts started singles figures beaten 12L and 18L.

Speed Map
Naamoos expected to set a strong tempo here from the front with the likes of Bullace expected to join in if its not extreme.

Chances
Top Chances: Poetic Flare, Lucky Vega
High Chances: Mostahdaf, Naasmoos
Medium Chances: Battleground, Chindit
Low Chances: Highland Avenue, La Barrosa, Bullace, Thunder Moon
Very Low Chances: Maximal, Ontario

Confidence: 80%
Comments: Keen to back Poetic Flare off the two big runs this prep. He has the ratings required to win this and is the best chance in the rate.
Naasmoos has the potential to improve onwards here and measure up based on the last start run and at $25+ is worth a play.
I want to save on Mostahdaf and Lucky Vega.
Before any of you $#$$s say “OMG Backing 4 runners” you are getting money back on two and then odds of $3.60 for either of the other two to win. Risking $32.50 to win $117 kinda deal.