Horse Racing Tips for 12 June 2021

Eagle Farm Race 7 – 1600m – JJ Atkins 2YO Group 1

1. Tiger of Malay: Right spot in run last start to score the blanket finish Group 2 at course over 1400m last start. Much harder today from barrier 11 but clearly has ability.
2. Converge: Third in a Group one two runs back and trained on since. Last start went back from a bad draw and stormed home after being held up which clearly cost the win. Will settle MUCH further forward from a better draw and potentially lead them around. The one to beat.
3. Subterranean: 4-wide the trip last start from a poor barrier. Comes out of 4 today and gets his chance if good enough. Has to improve 4-5 lengths today. Didn’t show me enough in the Group 3 win.
4. Overpass: Blinkers on the key gear change to try get him ready to win this. Was wide last start middle stages and tried all the way to the line. Respectable result and if improves at 1600m could be a player from the gate.
5. Port Louis: Poor barrier today. Last start got back sprinted for 300m then couldn’t find the legs the final 100m to keep improving past the winner. Poor barrier again today certainly doesn’t help the chances. Based on run in the Champagne Stakes i’m not as convinced as others by the horses pattern. If they push forward though today….
6. Volcanic Rock: Brings different form lines. Listed grade winner last start on lead-in. On speed type. Needs to find a couple of lengths to be measuring up here though.
7. Ranch Hand: Blinkers off – trying something after failed last start in the Sires. Can’t have on runs this prep even from a more positive barrier. Taking on.
8. Blushing Tycoon: Close 2nd two back at Morphetville in a Group 3 and then won well last start at Flemington in Open grade. Not the worst chance pushing forward from the wide barrier.
9. Overmann: Beat Volcanic Rock last start fairly – the previous start lost a maiden. Big jump in class. Needs to find about 3 lengths on last start to measure up here.
10. Cape Breton: Maiden and Open grade winner on lead-in. Nice enough type but does have to improve up to 1600m again to measure up.
11. Giannis: Well beaten both starts this prep in Group company. Step up again. Lameness issues this prep. Pass
12. Dark Rebel: Blinkers go on. Throw at stumps as manners were poor in the Sires and data-wise wasn’t backable last start either. Take on.
13. Three Wise Men: Showed massive improvement last start behind Overmann. Really good rails run from the back. Need to show equal improvement today.
14. Invisible Tears: May be a sprinter? Very good in Group 2 company two back. Also good over the 1000m the previous start. Failed over 1400m last start. Big query. Data wise the 1200m run measures up.

Speed Map
No natural leader outside of Converge who was ridden quietly last start out the back from a bad barrier. Gets a good positive barrier and is a likely leader with Blushing Tycoon, Cape Breton, Volcanic Rock and Overpass the others likely to contest in some way.
Expecting speed to be Benchmark standard to the 600m.

Winning chances
Top Chance: Converge,
High Chance: Tiger of Malay, Port Louis
Medium Chance: Volcanic Rock, Blushing Tycoon
Low Chance: Subterranean, Ranch Hand, Overmann, Cape Breton, Three Wise Men,
Very Low Chance: Giannis, Dark Rebel

Confidence: 75%
Comments: Converge is clear top pick but certainly nearing on the right price i have in the race. Will be betting on the day as i’m expecting the price to not get any shorter than the $3.40 available as i write this.
On the other side of things, Tiger of Malay looks over the odds at the $7 mark and i’ll be having a bet to win half the amount i’ll win on Converge.

Randwick Race 4 – 1200m – BM-78

1. Ulysses: Solid enough runs this prep. Off 3 months and had 2 lead in trials that were respectable. Right around the rating normally required to win this type of race and will be on speed pushing tempo.
2. Belluci Babe: Strong sit sprint type that has an elite turn of foot. Last start just missed just like run prior going back and storming home. Never won on a wet track from 4 attempts but goes well on it. Main danger to favourite.
3. Switched: Winner in this grade last prep. Three runs this prep not within 4L of a win. Hard to suggest here.
6. Brazen Gem: First start today and has good first-up form previously. 5 starts for 0 wins on heavy in the past. Started much shorter the last few starts. Could be some value.
7. Gravina: Huge win last start at Randwick by 5 lengths. Finally showed his true ability. 3KG claimer keeps the ride. Will handle heavy. Will handle the track and will handle the distance. Clear favourite.
8. Shaik: Not suited out the back first up in QLD by the sit sprint nature of the race Previous prep measured up in this grade and has some solid times on the board. Does need to improve still.
9. El Buena: Third up today. Goes okay on wet surfaces. Data suggests he is a few lengths off a placing here on recent runs.
10. Mollycoddle: Hasn’t been able to show us her true potential off slow tempos two runs this prep. Step back in grade. Started single figures in listed grade last start so price is potentially wrong back to this grade. Great barrier to showcase her class with speed on.
11. Steel Diamond: Put in one really good run last prep and that was on a heavy track. Two trials on lead-in for new trainer C Waller.
12. Bluff ‘n’Bluster: Trialed twice on lead-in. Has a solid turn of foot as seen two runs back in early January. Not the worst home to place.
13. Van Giz: Consistent type. Finally found another win for the prep at the farm last start. Big improvement needed for this grade though.

Speed Map
Expecting Ulysses, Switched and Belluchi Babe to be pushing the tempo here. Based on previous runs, expecting a solid speed 3L faster than average to the 600m. Best horses suited.

Winning Chances
Top Chance: Gravina
High Chance: Belluci Babe, Ulysses
Medium Chance: Mollycoddle, Brazen Gem, Shaik, Steel Diamond
Low Chance: Switched, El Buena, Bluff ‘n’Bluster, Van Giz
Very Low Chance: None

Confidence: 90%
Comments: If Gravina can produce a run similar to last start and gets a run top of the straight, it’s game over. This horse put in elite figures that would have the horse competitive at group level and the $2.10 is just a bet today on the ability shown last start. Belluci Babe looks the main danger while for those after a ‘value angle’Mollycoddle and Ulysses are the next best chances at $20+.

Randwick Race 5 – 1600m – BM-78

1. Akari: Well back in grade after being well beaten in BM-94 grade last start. Hasn’t been back to this grade of race in a long time. Handles wet surfaces only okay. best is seen on dryer. Can put in an honest effort again.
2. Savigne: Steps back from BM-84 grade at Caulfield when 4th behind Ruby Skye. A month between runs and brings a career peak into this. Has two prior wins on heavy. Last start seemed an abnormal data peak but may have been helped by the tempo. Clearly have to consider at the prices here off that.
3. Seentoomany: Well back in grade off two runs in QLD where she was well defeated. Never won on Heavy but has gone close. Handles soft surfaces well. Showed enough last start to consider a chance.
4. Zing: Close 3rd last start at Rosehill off a slow tempo. Nice barrier for the horse today and a positive jockey change. Horse doesn’t have to improve on best runs to win this. Looks an obvious danger and key contender. Had every chance to out-heart them last start and didn’t.
5. La Chevalee: A horse that is shown to improve deeper into preps. Very positive jockey/trainer combo POT wise recently. Horse loves heavy tracks and soft tracks. Close 2nd from on speed last start at Sandown. Handles all kinds of tempo. Won’t kick away from them at any stage in the straight but will be mighty hard to get past.
6. Ruby Tuesday: Consistently solid all prep and last start well beaten in easier when hurt by a poor start. Best when tempo isn’t super strong early. Can win. Others preferred on wetter.
7. Snippy Fox: Every chance last start at course over 1400m on a soft track. Handles the wet. Barrier solid today and will be going forward. Data wise last start was suitable enough to be competitive here. Respectable type.
8. Margie Bee: Led almost all the way in a crawl last start at Warwick Farm when ran down late at huge odds. Won’t get that dream here. Looks like a place lay at the price.
9. Betty Blooms: Fair type with a new yard this prep. Got the win, just, last start on the Kenso. Has to improve lengths again on recent runs to be competitive against this lot. Big jump in grade.
10. Liveinthefastlane: Massive data peak in MUCH harder grade three back. Down in grade last start at Kembla on a heavy track disappointed. Wants a dry surface. Won’t get it.
11. Azarmin: Last 5 runs are still three lengths off a win in this grade. Goes well on wet tracks but still has to pull another gear out of the bag we haven’t seen recently. Not one of mine.
12. Celtic Love: City winner in the past. This prep hasn’t seen her a winning hope in easier races. Can’t see the form turn around.
13. Buba: Ignore first up and rate on previous best. Never seen a strong tempo race apart from last start where there may have been issues. Can’t fully discount but very happy to take on.

Speed Map
Expecting speed to be on today with several front running types like Margie bee, Betty Blooms, Snippy Fox. Speed will be benchmark to 4L above benchmark to the 600m making it a true test.

Winning chances
Top Chance: La Chevalee
High Chance: Zing, Savigne, Snippy Fox
Medium Chance: Ruby Tuesday, Akari,
Low Chance: Seentoomany, Betty Blooms, Azarmin
Very Low Chance: Margie Bee, Liveinthefastlane, Celtic Love, Buba

Confidence: 85%
Comments: La Chevalee maps for the perfect run from barrier 5 sitting 1 off the rails near the front. Expecting further improvements on last two runs 3rd up and the track to suit.
Savigne is a big odds runner that has to be backed at the price also off a data peak run that would be competitive/win this. Wouldn’t talk you out of a saver on Zing if you wanted to, but that ain’t my cup of tea here.

Morphetville Race 5 – 1250m – BM-68

2. Imperial Hilton: Showed an impressive turn of foot last start at Sandown to score well first-up over 1000m. Bred to get further and will be much fitter for the run and well suited at the distance. Very well placed with the 3kg claimer onboard from barrier 3.
3. Koruto: Won 3 of his last 4 races in easier grade than this. Doesn’t have a huge turn of foot is the query over the horse, but he is certainly a winning chance, especially if another horse takes up the running and makes it a genuine test. Can’t dismiss.
4. Winning Weather: Settled behind the leaders first up over the 1000m in much easier grade of race than this and got the chocolates. Step up to 1250m more than ideal. Best on previous preps was mainly off tempos stronger than is expected here. Tactics key for this horse and position in run. Hard to run past this girl if they lead.
6 Chico Fiestro: Three runs to date and finally got a maiden win in very poor data time. Have to take on at this level.
7. Fall On A Star: Three runs this prep for two wins. Step up in grade again here but has shown some ability. Datawise she is a lay compared to others in the race. Did run 6th beaten 2L in a Group 3 last year as a 2YO. If speed is on, keep an eye on this one.
8. Pentire’s Spirit: Has put time on the board first up but went back to maiden grade last start for a win. Has to improve on everything we have seen to date.

Speed Map
Chico Fiestro the expected leader. Last few runs he has led he hasn’t gone close to benchmark speed to the 600m so could be a slowly run race again without a change of tactics from a main player such as Winning Weather.

Winning chances
Top Chance: Imperial Hilton
High Chance: Winning Weather
Medium Chance: Fall On A Star, Koruto
Low Chance: Pentire’s Spirit
Very Low Chance: Chico Fiestro

Confidence: 80%
Comments: Imperial Hilton looks a massive price for a horse that will continue to improve this and next run. Data wise a time of -0.7 on the PuntingForm sheets has been required to win this in the past. Imperial Hilton returned a -1.5 last start, almost a length better than whats needed to normally win this. I will be putting a saver on Winning Weather who looks the likely threat.