Cox Plate 2024 Form Guide

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Cox Plate 2024 Form Guide

What it takes to win or place in the Cox Plate the past five years for international raider form to hold up on Timeform?

2022 Cox Plate – (126 Timeform Rating won the race – 125+ prior to race for the horse)
1st – Anamoe – Came into the race as the favourite and delivered with grace and class with a genuine tempo set that allowed the now-retired champion to extend cornering into the straight putting lengths on the main dangers. He ran a career peak 126 Timeform rating, ahead of three 125 timeform ratings, all of which were on Heavy or Soft track ratings.
2nd – I’m Thunderstruck – Ran 124+ Timeform rating to equal his best rating ever when running 2nd on a Heavy track in the Doncaster early in 2022, as well as the lead in run 124 beaten a neck behind Anamoe in the Might and Power Stakes.
3rd – El Bodegon – Ran 124 Timeform rating but had never gone above 115 (beaten 5 lengths in a French Group 1 (but beat Modern Games on that day and it was behind Vadeni who ran a close 2nd in the Arc since, so very good form lines). May have been under-represented in the ratings off this run.  

2021 Cox Plate – (125 Timeform Rating won the race – 119 prior to race for the horse)
1st – State of Rest – Ran 125 –  Came into the race with what was clearly a progressive profile winning a Group 1 on the lead in increasing his personal best timeform rating from 109 to 119. So no surprise to see it improve to 125 here. Had to improve to beat off Anamoe.
2nd – Anamoe – Ran 122 – Previous ran 123 Timeform Rating and was still improving when you consider he ran 125 or above 4 times after this run. Bit unlucky to not win on the day.
3rd – Very Elleegant – Ran 116 – Previously ran 123 on lead-in. Ran 127 Timeform rating in the Melbourne Cup after this to win. Obviously, that was the goal all along. 

2020 Cox Plate – (123 Timeform Rating won the race – 122 prior to race for the horse)
1st – Sir Dragonet – Got a genuine tempo and soft track – previous best 122+ timeform on soft. All perfect conditions on day. Ran 123 to win.
2nd – Armory – Ran 122+ Timeform rating in previous G1 run and repeated that figure with 122 for second.
3rd – Russian Camelot – Best in past seen over slightly shorter distances. Ran to 121 Timeform Rating on the day. Had previously ran 124 in the Underwood on a soft track.

2019 Cox Plate – (124 Timeform Rating won the race – 125+ prior to race for the horse)
1st – Lys Gracieux – Won like a good thing going away from them. Tempo was solid. Run prior was 124 Timeform Rating. Ran 125+ on the day. Next start in Japan ran 128! Class horse.
2nd – Castelvecchio – Ran a clear career peak here of 124 Timeform rating. Won a G1 since running 120.
3rd – Te Akau Shark – Disappointed on the day – 2000m too far for horses best. Ran 119 on the day coming off a 126 Timeform rating prior and 126+ next start after that both those over 1600m.

How do 3YO’s measure up in this race?

What it takes for a 3YO to win a Cox Plate on Timeform Data.

2009 SO YOU THINK 49.5kg – 108 Caulfield Guineas – 124 Cox Plate – Winner 🥇
2009 MANHATTAN RAIN 49.5kg – 116 Guineas Prelude – 118 Cox Plate – 2nd
2011 HELMET 49.5kg – 127 Caulfield Guineas – 117 Cox Plate – Unplaced
2012 ALL TOO HARD 49.5kg – 125 Caulfield Guineas – 127 Cox Plate – 2nd
2012 PIERRO 49.5kg – 127 Champagne Stakes – 119 Cox Plate – 3rd
2013 PROISIR 49.5kg – NA – 114 Cox Plate – Unplaced
2013 SHAMUS AWARD 49.5kg – 115 Caulfield Guineas – 124 Cox Plate – Winner 🥇
2013 LONG JOHN 49.5kg – 122 Caulfield Guineas – 107 Cox Plate – Unplaced
2014 SWEYNESSE 49.5kg – NA – 121 Cox Plate – Unplaced
2014 WANDJINA 49.5kg – 117 Caulfield Guineas – 117 Cox Plate – Unplaced
2016 YANKEE ROSE 47.5kg – 109+ Spring Champ Stakes – 115 Cox Plate – 3rd
2017 ROYAL SYMPHONY 49.5kg – N/A – 116 Cox Plate – Unplaced
2019 CASTELVECCHIO 49.5kg – 121 Champagne Stakes – 124 Cox Plate – 2nd
2020 GRANDSLAM 49.5kg – 111 Caulfield Guineas – 92 Cox Plate – Unplaced
2021 ANAMOE 49.5kg – 123 Caulfield Guineas. 122 Cox Plate – 2nd
2021 CAPTIVANT 49.5kg – 121 Caulfield Guineas. 90 Cox Plate – Unplaced
2023 MILITARIZE 49.5kg – Unplaced
2023 KING COLORADO 50kg – Unplaced

So You Think and Shamus Award both won off similar setups.
Too far back in Guineas and led in Cox Plates.

So You Think 5th from back Caulfield Guineas and flashes late

So You Think Wins the Cox Plate from the front leading all the way

Shamus Aware settles back in Caulfield Guineas and flashes late

Shamus Award wins the Cox Plate leading from the front all the way

Broadsiding and Evaporate settle back in Caulfield Guinea and flash late

It does make you think. 👀

Speed Map

Will the 3YOS push forward? Will they go back and hope they can come over the top late? The speed is certain to be on. Firstly thanks to Punters for having an easy-to-use speed map tool that I used. This Cox Plate is a two-pack race. Pride of Jenni out the front then those chasing. Let’s see if she can hold them off!

1. Mr Brightside (59.0kg) – Barrier 2

2. Prognosis (59.0kg) – Barrier 5

3. Kovalica (59.0kg) – Barrier 9

4. Royal Patronage (59.0kg) – Barrier 3

5. Docklands (59.0kg) – Barrier 1

6. Pride of Jenni (57.0kg) – Barrier 7

7. Via Sistina (57.0kg) – Barrier 4

8. Broadsiding (49.0kg) – Barrier 8

9. Evaporate (49.0kg) – Barrier 6

Confidence Levels

Top Chances: Pride of Jenni, Prognosis
Very High Chances: Via Sistina
High Chances: Mr Brightside, Broadsiding
Medium Chances: Docklands
Low Chances: Kovalica
Very Low Chances: Evaporate, Royal Patronage

Race Summary

Signed,
Drew Patchell

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