Cox Plate 2024 Form Guide
International runners have dominated the Cox Plate in recent years winning four of the past five races. Romantic Warrior was able to get the job done last year as the international runner in the race and we come up with another international favourite this year with Prognosis. Drew Patchell has taken a look at what it takes to win the Cox Plate according to the Timeform ratings and also looked at each individual international runner for the race. If you are looking for the runner-by-runner form you will need to scroll past a fair bit of preamble, but I assure you it’s worth reading!
What it takes to win or place in the Cox Plate the past five years for international raider form to hold up on Timeform?
2023 Cox Plate – (126 Timeform Rating won the race – 126 prior to race for the horse)
1st – Romantic Warrior – Ran to 126 which was the horses career peak. Didn’t have the ideal lead in with set backs and losing at Flemington, but turned it around and showed that world class form and what it stands for. Romantic Warrior has beaten the 2024 Cox Plate favourite both times they have met, but had a significantly better run last start.
2nd – Mr Brightside – Ran 125 Timeform rating to equal his best rating ever. Has run 125 since, very consistent type who handles any surface type. Got a gem of a ride in run 1 back the rails and got all the splits.
3rd – Alligator Blood – Ran 124 Timeform rating and just like the two in front of him, ran to his equal career peak he had previously reached. Had every possible and was a gem of a ride from on speed.
2022 Cox Plate – (126 Timeform Rating won the race – 125+ prior to race for the horse)
1st – Anamoe – Came into the race as the favourite and delivered with grace and class with a genuine tempo set that allowed the now-retired champion to extend cornering into the straight putting lengths on the main dangers. He ran a career peak 126 Timeform rating, ahead of three 125 timeform ratings, all of which were on Heavy or Soft track ratings.
2nd – I’m Thunderstruck – Ran 124+ Timeform rating to equal his best rating ever when running 2nd on a Heavy track in the Doncaster early in 2022, as well as the lead in run 124 beaten a neck behind Anamoe in the Might and Power Stakes.
3rd – El Bodegon – Ran 124 Timeform rating but had never gone above 115 (beaten 5 lengths in a French Group 1 (but beat Modern Games on that day and it was behind Vadeni who ran a close 2nd in the Arc since, so very good form lines). May have been under-represented in the ratings off this run.
2021 Cox Plate – (125 Timeform Rating won the race – 119 prior to race for the horse)
1st – State of Rest – Ran 125 – Came into the race with what was clearly a progressive profile winning a Group 1 on the lead in increasing his personal best timeform rating from 109 to 119. So no surprise to see it improve to 125 here. Had to improve to beat off Anamoe.
2nd – Anamoe – Ran 122 – Previous ran 123 Timeform Rating and was still improving when you consider he ran 125 or above 4 times after this run. Bit unlucky to not win on the day.
3rd – Very Elleegant – Ran 116 – Previously ran 123 on lead-in. Ran 127 Timeform rating in the Melbourne Cup after this to win. Obviously, that was the goal all along.
2020 Cox Plate – (123 Timeform Rating won the race – 122 prior to race for the horse)
1st – Sir Dragonet – Got a genuine tempo and soft track – previous best 122+ timeform on soft. All perfect conditions on day. Ran 123 to win.
2nd – Armory – Ran 122+ Timeform rating in previous G1 run and repeated that figure with 122 for second.
3rd – Russian Camelot – Best in past seen over slightly shorter distances. Ran to 121 Timeform Rating on the day. Had previously ran 124 in the Underwood on a soft track.
2019 Cox Plate – (124 Timeform Rating won the race – 125+ prior to race for the horse)
1st – Lys Gracieux – Won like a good thing going away from them. Tempo was solid. Run prior was 124 Timeform Rating. Ran 125+ on the day. Next start in Japan ran 128! Class horse.
2nd – Castelvecchio – Ran a clear career peak here of 124 Timeform rating. Won a G1 since running 120.
3rd – Te Akau Shark – Disappointed on the day – 2000m too far for horses best. Ran 119 on the day coming off a 126 Timeform rating prior and 126+ next start after that both those over 1600m.
How do 3YO’s measure up in this race?
What it takes for a 3YO to win a Cox Plate on Timeform Data.
2009 SO YOU THINK 49.5kg – 108 Caulfield Guineas – 124 Cox Plate – Winner 🥇
2009 MANHATTAN RAIN 49.5kg – 116 Guineas Prelude – 118 Cox Plate – 2nd
2011 HELMET 49.5kg – 127 Caulfield Guineas – 117 Cox Plate – Unplaced
2012 ALL TOO HARD 49.5kg – 125 Caulfield Guineas – 127 Cox Plate – 2nd
2012 PIERRO 49.5kg – 127 Champagne Stakes – 119 Cox Plate – 3rd
2013 PROISIR 49.5kg – NA – 114 Cox Plate – Unplaced
2013 SHAMUS AWARD 49.5kg – 115 Caulfield Guineas – 124 Cox Plate – Winner 🥇
2013 LONG JOHN 49.5kg – 122 Caulfield Guineas – 107 Cox Plate – Unplaced
2014 SWEYNESSE 49.5kg – NA – 121 Cox Plate – Unplaced
2014 WANDJINA 49.5kg – 117 Caulfield Guineas – 117 Cox Plate – Unplaced
2016 YANKEE ROSE 47.5kg – 109+ Spring Champ Stakes – 115 Cox Plate – 3rd
2017 ROYAL SYMPHONY 49.5kg – N/A – 116 Cox Plate – Unplaced
2019 CASTELVECCHIO 49.5kg – 121 Champagne Stakes – 124 Cox Plate – 2nd
2020 GRANDSLAM 49.5kg – 111 Caulfield Guineas – 92 Cox Plate – Unplaced
2021 ANAMOE 49.5kg – 123 Caulfield Guineas. 122 Cox Plate – 2nd
2021 CAPTIVANT 49.5kg – 121 Caulfield Guineas. 90 Cox Plate – Unplaced
2023 MILITARIZE 49.5kg – Unplaced
2023 KING COLORADO 50kg – Unplaced
So You Think and Shamus Award both won off similar setups.
Too far back in Guineas and led in Cox Plates.
So You Think 5th from back Caulfield Guineas and flashes late
So You Think Wins the Cox Plate from the front leading all the way
Shamus Aware settles back in Caulfield Guineas and flashes late
Shamus Award wins the Cox Plate leading from the front all the way
Broadsiding and Evaporate settle back in Caulfield Guinea and flash late
It does make you think. 👀
Speed Map
Will the 3YOS push forward? Will they go back and hope they can come over the top late? The speed is certain to be on. Firstly thanks to Punters for having an easy-to-use speed map tool that I used. This Cox Plate is a two-pack race. Pride of Jenni out the front then those chasing. Let’s see if she can hold them off!
1. Mr Brightside (59.0kg) – Barrier 2
Jockey: Craig Williams
Timeform Rating: 125
Analysis: Six attempts for 0 wins at 2000m but was just nosed out in this same race last year. Couldn’t run down Deny Knowledge last start at Caulfield which is a bit of a concern when you consider this race will be run in a very similar fashion with a much higher rated horse out in front that he has to run down. Has finished Top 2 in 17 of his last 19 races. Those 2 runs outside of the top 2 were both over 2000m.
Expected Finishing Position: 4th
2. Prognosis (59.0kg) – Barrier 5
Jockey: Damian Lane
Timeform Rating: 124
Analysis: Group 2 winner. 2nd behind Romantic Warrior over 2000m, twice previously, and 3rd behind Equinox over 2000m, with all three races in Group 1 company. Toweled up a Group 2 race prior to the run two back where defeated by Romantic Warrior by just 0.2 lengths. That defeat was MUCH better than the scorecard shows. Prognosis missed the start by 3L, made a mid-race move to sit 3-wide for half the race got to outside the leaders and just kept finding. See for yourself the video below. This is a special horse. The breakers believe they have corrected the racing patterns
Expected Finishing Position: 2nd
3. Kovalica (59.0kg) – Barrier 9
Jockey: Mark Zahra
Timeform Rating: 118
Analysis: 14 runs for 0 wins after winning a QLD Group 1 back in 2023. Continues to run really well considering and was a good 2nd last start over 1900m up in Sydney behind Attrition. Was beaten by all of these in the Queen Elizabeth Stakes so hard to see the turnaround based on recent form.
Expected Finishing Position: 7th
4. Royal Patronage (59.0kg) – Barrier 3
Jockey: Michael Dee
Timeform Rating: 105* (Does not include recent runs in AU)
Analysis: Fairly beaten all three lead in runs behind horses that wouldn’t be single figures in this race (outside of Ceolwulf). Last start over 1900m was fairly beaten by Kovalica and Attrition. This is a massive step up in class and I struggle to suggest any way to bet Royal Patronage today.
Expected Finishing Position: 9th
5. Docklands (59.0kg) – Barrier 1
Jockey: Blake Shinn
Timeform Rating: 117
Analysis: Get back run on type. Comes here as a non-winner but I also fell for that trap last week with Duke De Sessa who was 0-12 in Australia prior to the Caulfield Cup win. Has shown reasonable levels of talent over the 1600m distance but nothing that blows you away at the 2000m. Was 2nd to Charyn in the Queen Anne Stakes at Royal Ascot in the Group 1 over 1600m. The price they put up at $12 was crazy unders and expect the horse to drift. If you get a price with $3 in front of it, it may be worth having a small play with the potential improvement of a horse like this out in Australia.
Expected Finishing Position: 6th
6. Pride of Jenni (57.0kg) – Barrier 7
Jockey: Declan Bates
Timeform Rating: 129
Analysis: Ran a massive 129 in the Queen Elizabeth Stakes. Highest rated with UK Timeform is 122 around that but does not account for a few recent runs. Did they go too fast in the QE? Probably? But could anything run them down doing that? Hell No. Now add in if the Japanese horse Prognosis is slow away and tested the whole way around? What is finishing off late? The 3YOS? You know Mr Brightside won’t be making up the gap. Via Sistina? She has this race in the palm of her hoofs. If Bates gives a good ride, she will be hella hard to run down.
Expected Finishing Position: 1st
7. Via Sistina (57.0kg) – Barrier 4
Jockey: James McDonald
Timeform Rating: 121 (Does not include recent runs in AU)
Analysis: Get back run on 2000m specialist. Ignore the mid-prep fail and rate on the last start win in the Turnbull. Also look back to the Autumn for the 1st in the Ranvet. Ran on for 2nd behind Pride of Jenni in the Queen Elizabeth the next start but was defeated 6.5L on that occasion. Hard to suggest she isn’t a winning chance on current form.
Expected Finishing Position: 3rd
8. Broadsiding (49.0kg) – Barrier 8
Jockey: Jamie Kah
Timeform Rating: 116 (does not account for last two runs)
Analysis: Golden Rose winner. Got all the right runs at the right times and only just got the win. Started VERY short in the Guineas and got back and run on fairly to miss a place. Yes, tempo may not have suited. But it’s hard to win with such a negative racing style. Doubt they will be considering a change of tactics today even with the 49kg onboard. They will ride him like the best horse in the race. Expect he will be finishing off well, but does he have the class to go right past these? If this horse is one of the best the stable have ever had, then he should be winning with 49kg. I haven’t seen the same horse they are talking about on the track to-date.
Expected Finishing Position: 5th
9. Evaporate (49.0kg) – Barrier 6
Jockey: Karis Teetan
Timeform Rating: N/A
Analysis: Group 2 winner at course over 1600m a few weeks back winning the Stutt Stakes. Ran a bold race from back in running in the Caulfield Guineas and got home for a place as expected by the Hayes team. Was originally not going to proceed onwards but the stable changed their mind in recent days. Expect this horse may just cart the field up to Pride of Jenni when it’s required. I’m not keen about this horse winning today, but if given the right run, can run a bold race.
Expected Finishing Position: 8th
Confidence Levels
Top Chances: Pride of Jenni, Prognosis
Very High Chances: Via Sistina
High Chances: Mr Brightside, Broadsiding
Medium Chances: Docklands
Low Chances: Kovalica
Very Low Chances: Evaporate, Royal Patronage
Race Summary
Two absolute standouts in the race today in Pride of Jenni and the Japanese import Prognosis. If POJ can reproduce a run even close to that in the Queen Elizabeth, she will just be winning, there is no running her down. If she runs four rating points lower, she is still probably winning. I have to be with her at her peak run at her best distance.
Prognosis is the X factor. This horse has gone on with it and the last start 2nd to Romantic Warrior was a huge effort. If they have fixed the barrier manners and the horse can jump with them, expect an early move similar to that produced by Adelaide when he won the Cox Plate almost a decade ago!
There is no doubt that horses like Mr Brightside and Via Sistina can win, I just can’t be with them at their current prices and feel the way the shape of the race will be run, that they are more disadvantaged than the two we are with.
The unknown of the race is Broadsiding. I’m taking him on. He could very well be the next superstar and with 49.5kg, if he is, then we will have egg on our face and not collect any of the chocolates. The 3YO data suggests in a year of this quality, the 3YO very well needs to be a champion.
Good luck punters and thanks for reading!
Signed,
Drew Patchell