Melbourne Cup 2024 Form Guide
Welcome to what is now my 12th Melbourne Cup preview I’ve posted, previously on TheProfits website and now on the RacingWorldwide website! I love the International fields and the task of finding the winner in this race. Gone is the trend of the low-weight Melbourne Cup winner sneaking in with 51.5kg as an international 3YO. Infact, there are none this year after the sensational scratching last week of the one time favourite. Without a Fight (56.5kg), Gold Trip (57.5kg), Verry Elleegant (57kg) and Twilight Payment (55.5kg) have won the past 4 cups. The highest weight this year will be Vauban with just 55kg! That tells you we have a compressed handicap format this year with little between the lowest rated and the highest rated in the race. Have a great day on the punt and good luck!
What it takes to win or place in the Melbourne Cup the past five years ratings wise?
2023 Melbourne Cup – (127 Timeform Rating won the race – 124 prior to race for the horse)
1st – Without a Fight (56.5kg) – Recorded 124 in the Caulfield Cup and improved massively to 127 winning this race. A true staying test on the day allowed for the rating with such a big weight. Good horses can carry weight and win.
2nd – Soulcombe (53.5kg) – Ran 119 Timeform in the Caulfield Cup and kept that form with a 118 Timeform rating. Could have improved if jumped well, but just simply doesn’t.
3rd – Sheraz (51.5kg) – 112 Timeform Rating heading into the race last year and ran to that figure in the race recording 112.
2022 Melbourne Cup – (125 Timeform Rating won the race – 123 prior to race for the horse)
1st – Gold Trip (57.5kg) – Recorded a Timeform 123 over 2400m as a career-best run in the Caulfield Cup. Improved to 125 to win this with a big weight.
2nd – Emissary (51.5kg) – Geelong Cup lead in 115 was key suggesting a big run here with a low weight. Regressed back to 109 and still ran 2nd. Shows that weights matter, but so does the horses ability to see out a tough run 3200m.
3rd – High Emocean (50kg) – Very low rating run – came in with 105 and ran to 103 on the day to still record a third. Shows how lacking in depth the race really was at the middle weights and even lower weights to an extent.
2021 Melbourne Cup – (127 Timeform Rating won the race – 123 prior to race for the horse) [PuntingForm -19.9 – Horse had run -13.7 best of previous five runs]
1st – Verry Elleegant (57kg) – Recorded a Timeform 123 over 2000m as a career-best heading into the Melbourne Cup and then ran Timeform 127 in this race to win.
2nd – Incentivise (57kg) – Put an insane Timeform 129 rating on the board in the Caulfield Cup and then went back to a 121 rating in this for 2nd.
3rd – Spanish Mission (57kg) – Came to Australia with a 121 Timeform rating and big weight to carry in this race. Ran to 120 for third.
2020 Melbourne Cup – (120 Timeform Rating won the race – 120 prior to race for the horse) [PuntingForm -17.6]
1st – Twilight Payment (55.5kg) – Came out to Melbourne with a 120 Timeform rating over 2800m on record. Only got 55.5kg and ran another 120 Timeform rating to win!
2nd – Tiger Moth (52.5kg) – Ran a 118+ Timeform Rating on lead-in. Measured up with a 122 career peak and still found one too good with the low weight.
3rd – Prince of Arran (54.5kg) – Career peak of 118 coming in and with 54.5kg ran 117+ storming home late.
2019 Melbourne Cup – (117 Timeform Rating won the race – 117 prior to race for the horse) [PuntingForm -7.1 – Horse had run -9.6 best of previous five runs]
1st – Vow and Declare (52kg) – Got in with as low weight down 5kg from the Caulfield cup with just 52kg. Won a packed finish slowly run Melb Cup. Timeform rating 117 leading in and matched it.
2nd – Prince of Arran (54kg) – Ran a 117 Timeform rating in the Geelong Cup and got in with 54kg. Only ran a 115 Timeform Rating, below his 118 best.
3rd – Il Paradiso (52.5kg) – Lightweight 3YO with 52.5kg. Ran huge from an impossible position in a race with no speed on. Had ran 119 on lead in prep. Ran 122 Timeform Rating.
2024 Melbourne Cup Preview
Speed Predictions
Everyone is expecting Gai Waterhouse to set them alight out front with Just Fine, but could that all be a rouse? Outside of Just Fine, I don’t see a pace angle. There are a lot of good horses that will angle for runs out front, but none of them want to force tempo. Perhaps Okita Soushi, Sea King or even a horse from the outside like Mostly Cloudy or Fancy Man could push forward and lead it up. At this stage, we have to trust that the instructions from Gai are to do what they have always done on Just Fine, lead with tempo on. Most importantly, I can see the instructions being to increase tempo throughout the race, rather than from the get-go. So at the 1600m the tempo increases and then again at the 1000m, making it difficult for the usual 1000m/800m out moves from the back being as successful as in the past. Get a spot, fight for it early and that may decide your fate! Thanks also to the guys at Punters for the use of their speed map tool.
1. Vauban (55kg) – Barrier 11
Jockey: William Buick
Gear Change: None
Timeform Rating: 119
Expected Settle Position: Off-pace
Lead in form: 1st G2 Lonsdale Cup, 2nd G1 Irish St Leger
Analysis: Last year came with a similar rating and 55kg. Two lead in runs this year have been 119 and 119 yet again. The big difference is this horse has been taught how to settle and chase, rather than lead this year. The way the race was run last year, Vauban had 0 chance of winning as no horse that settled in the first 10, finished better than 7th, beaten 5.4 lengths. Perfect barrier to pick off a spot and get a sit 1 off the rail as plan A. If that doesn’t work out, roll forward and lead is always an option. Wet or Dry, the horse is suited at 3200m. Key contender in the race.
Expected Finishing Position: 2nd
2. Buckaroo (54kg) – Barrier 21
Jockey: Joao Moreira
Gear Change: None
Timeform Rating: 124
Expected Settle Position: Out the back
Lead in form: 2nd Caulfield Cup, 2nd Turnbull Stakes
Analysis: New peak rating last start in the Caulfield Cup running to 124 from a previous recorded 121. Form reads well running Via Sistina to 0.1L over 2000m in the Turnbull. Only horse that broke 12 seconds from the 400 to the 200 and ran the clear fastest final 200m of the Caulfield Cup. Questions over if the horse will stay the 3200m are stupid when you see how the horse finished off over 2400m. The horse will stay 3200m. But there is a difference between a horse staying 3200m and staying a STRONG 3200m. Now that is the query as it is 100% unknown and the speed is expected to be fast out front. Won’t spend any energy early on. Have to respect. Barrier could be the issue that gets the horse into traffic, covering extra ground or just simply too far back.
Expected Finishing Position: 3rd
3. Circle of Fire (54kg) – Barrier 24
Jockey: Mark Zahra
Gear Change: None
Timeform Rating: 116
Expected Settle Position: Midfield, potentially three-wide line
Lead in form: 10th Caulfield Cup, 9th Turnbull
Analysis: Sydney Cup hero. Sat 3-wide facing the breeze and saw out a strong 3200m. Has been underperforming all prep and was beaten out of sight the past few starts. Even the stable agree this horse is a 3200m+ horse, but hasn’t been showing the form expected to be a genuine winning contender here.
Expected Finishing Position: 15th
4. Warp Speed (54kg) – Barrier 3
Jockey: Akira Sugawara
Gear Change: None
Timeform Rating: 117
Expected Settle Position: Midfield
Lead in form: 13th Caulfield Cup
Analysis: Poor and disappointing in the Caulfield Cup on a surface with more give in the ground. Expected to have more chance up to the 3200m on a firming track. Best run this year was 5th in the Tenno Sho Spring over the staying distance. Have to respect at the odds. Has the ability to run well enough to win. Not weighted the best is the only concern.
Expected Finishing Position: 8th
5. Kovalica (53kg) – Barrier 17
Jockey: Damian Lane
Gear Change: None
Timeform Rating: 119
Expected Settle Position: Out the back
Lead in form: 6th Cox Plate, 4th Epsom Handicap
Analysis: Hasn’t won a race since beating Fame and Stroke of Luck in the G1 Queensland Derby. Fame hasn’t won since and Stoke of Luck won a BM88 at Randwick and a Listed race at Newcastle. Kovalica was campaigned since at various distances with no luck – such as 1600m range for the Golden Eagle in that Winter and the 1600m + 2000m in this Autumn for the Doncaster and Queen Elizabeth. This is either a throw at the stumps with a horse that just hasn’t been good enough stepping up to 3200m or a master stroke. I’m electing for the first POV. Those who are saying ‘Buckaroo might not stay the 3200m’ should have even more concern about Kovalica based on the lead in form. Has the ratings from the past to compete if does stay.
Expected Finishing Position: 16th
6. Sharp ‘N’ Smart (53kg) – Barrier 15
Jockey: Michael Dee
Gear Change: None
Timeform Rating: 116
Expected Settle Position: Out Back to Midfield at Best (Missed jump last start)
Lead in form: 3rd Moonee Valley Gold Cup, 13th Turnbull Stakes, 2nd Waitoa Free Range Chicken Mile
Analysis: Last won in March of 2023 in the New Zealand Derby. Ran 2nd behind Manzoice in the 2022 Victoria Derby. Prior to that won the G1 Spring Champion. Form has been mixed at very best since those victories. Doesn’t look the type that can win, but a top 6 finish wouldn’t be a total shock.
Expected Finishing Position: 17th
7. Just Fine (53kg) – Barrier 13
Jockey: Jye McNeil
Gear Change: Ear Muffs (Pre-Race Only) again
Timeform Rating: 115
Expected Settle Position: Lead
Lead in form: 10th G2 Moonee Valley Gold Cup, 1st G3 Lexus Bart Cummings
Analysis: Has been mixing his form. Last Spring came onto the scene with a flurry of wins. Scored the 2400m G1 Metrop then fell away. Finally showed some life two runs back over 2520m in the Bart Cummings but was poor off a very strong tempo out front. Might simply not handle a ‘road’ hard track. Wants some rain. Won’t get it.
Expected Finishing Position: 9th
8. Land Legend (53kg) – Barrier 18
Jockey: Zac Purton
Gear Change: Ear Muffs first time, Ear Muffs (Pre-Race Only) off first time
Timeform Rating: 112
Expected Settle Position: Midfield
Lead in form: 3rd G1 Caulfield Cup, 1st G1 Metrop
Analysis: Won the Metrop and looked the better horse going forward compared with Zardozi. Ran home for 3rd but was in a different race in the Caulfield Cup. Previous data suggests 3200m should suit. Complicated type of horse. Heavily over-raced covered up in that Caulfield Cup from an inside draw. Goes outside. Will feel more comfortable one would imagine but will have to settle further back and come with a swooping sustained run late.
Expected Finishing Position: 10th
9. Absurde (52kg) – Barrier 7
Jockey: Kerrin McEvoy
Gear Change: None
Timeform Rating: 115
Expected Settle Position: Just behind the speed
Lead in form: 1st Chester Stakes, 4th G3 Irish St Leger Trial Stakes, 1st BETMGM County Handicap Hurdle
Analysis: Absurde came here last year off a 114 timeform rating and 121+ Hurdle rating with 53kg. Comes back this year with 52.5kg and ran to 115 UK Timeform Rating 2nd up over 2900m – was the only horse under a stranglehold coming past the 400m. Has been training well by all reports. Won at Cheltenham on a Heavy track over 3200m over the Hurdles… jumped like an absolute donkey out the back but just like last start was under a stranglehold approaching the 400m looking a moral. Most importantly, recorded a 143+, a +22 jump on hurdle ratings than what the horse was rated on last time he came out. Last year, when you look back over the race. It was all back markers that finished top 3 in the race. Absurde was the best of the horses that settled top 10 in run, and looked the winner top of straight. Perfect barrier brings the horse into a spot in running no worse than midfield, but most likely just off the speed.
Expected Finishing Position: 1st
10. Athabascan (52kg) – Barrier 2
Jockey: Zac Lloyd
Gear Change: None
Timeform Rating: 112
Expected Settle Position: Midfield
Lead in form: 1st G3 The Star St Leger Stakes, 10th G1 Metrop, Sydney Cup 2nd behind Circle of Fire in the Autumn
Analysis: Winning form is good form. Bounced back after the poor run in the Metrop with a solid win over Wyclif and Waltham over 2600m. Will get the 3200m as seen in the Sydney Cup 2nd to Circle of Fire in the Autumn. Not well in at the weights but Barrier 2 and will see out the distance, an absolute top 10 type lock at odds.
Expected Finishing Position: 11th
11. Knight’s Choice (51kg) – Barrier 6
Jockey: Robbie Dolan
Gear Change: None
Timeform Rating: 111
Expected Settle Position: Behind the leaders
Lead in form: 5th Bendigo Cup, 14th Caulfield Cup, 16th Turnbull Stakes
Analysis: Been through a traditional 9k lead in. Only started to put it all together last start at Bendigo when held up and raced fairly beaten a long way by Sea King. Best seen on Good tracks, not great on anything else. Perfect barrier to run well here over the 3200m. Won’t go close to winning but is a big top 10 factor at even bigger odds.
Expected Finishing Position: 19th
12. Okita Soushi (51kg) – Barrier 10
Jockey: Jamie Kah
Gear Change: None
Timeform Rating: 114
Expected Settle Position: On Speed
Lead in form: 1st Moonee Valley Gold Cup
Analysis: Came out to Australia last year and did not run well in first campaigns out here. Was given time and another prep and has come into his own again. Won the Duke of Edinburgh Stakes at Royal Ascot in 2023 prior to coming out. Put the writing on the wall that she was back in form running 2nd in the Herbert Power and then won a very smart race at Moonee Valley in the Gold Cup from the front setting a very strong tempo. The ideal lead-in when going up to 3200m. Can be on speed. Won’t have to lead. Will stay. Big chance.
Expected Finishing Position: 4th
13. Onesmoothoperator (51kg) – Barrier 12
Jockey: Craig Williams
Gear Change: None
Timeform Rating: 107
Expected Settle Position: Midfield to Forward
Lead in form: 1st Geelong Cup, 4th G3 September Stakes, 7th Ebor
Analysis: Came out to Australia with a 107 Timeform Rating and 105+ Hurdle rating. Compared with Absurde, was in another class, well below. Surprised, but didn’t shock, winning a slowly run Geelong Cup by lengths. Made a early move in that race from the 1000m slowly rolling into it and sustained the run. They were eating up ground on him late, but he also wasn’t pushed out. It’s really puzzling to see this horse in single figures. A slowly run 2400m isn’t the ideal lead in form I’m wanting when we are expecting a average to fast run Melbourne Cup. Take on at the odds for me. Just can’t compute it.
Expected Finishing Position: 7th
14. Zardozi (51kg) – Barrier 4
Jockey: Andrea Atzeni
Gear Change: None
Timeform Rating: 117
Expected Settle Position: Midfield
Lead in form: 5th G1 Empire Rose Stakes, 4th G1 Caulfield Cup, 2nd G1 Metrop
Analysis: Had the trial run getting back and running on in the Empire Rose on Saturday. Had every possible chance in the Caulfield Cup and wasn’t up to snuff over the 2400m. The previous start had every possible chance in the Metrop and got nosed out by Land Legend, who ultimately did alot wrong in that race, and beat Zardozi home. Land Legend also got the better of Zardozi in the Caulfield Cup. Won the Oaks this time last year but didn’t beat much. Alot of hype around the horse, but I don’t see it.
Expected Finishing Position: 12th
15. Sea King (50kg) – Barrier 1
Jockey: Hollie Doyle
Gear Change: None
Timeform Rating: 107
Expected Settle Position: Midfield at worst
Lead in form: 1st Bendigo Cup, 6th Ebor, 3rd Bell-ringer Handicap
Analysis: Came out to Australia in a similar fashion to Onesmoothoperator with a 107/108 style rating but hadn’t been able to mix it with the very best of them. Encouraging signs in the Ebor before coming out here and looks the type to stay. Barrier manners cost him in the Ebor, so you want him settled in the yard. On speed type that will tough it out and keep finding. Won’t pull away but will be there to fight with the low weight when it counts. Could be the best handicapped horse in the race off the last start run. Importantly he was pulled out at the 1000m more and made his run in the Bendigo Cup which told me this is a horse who will stay.
Expected Finishing Position: 5th
16. Valiant King (50kg) – Barrier 22
Jockey: Craig Newitt
Gear Change: None
Timeform Rating: 113
Expected Settle Position: Back
Lead in form: 9th Caulfield Cup, 10th Turnbull Stakes, 16th Kingston Town Stakes
Analysis: Came out to Australia with a 113 Timeform Rating but has managed only as high as 109 since. Made his run with Warmonger but didn’t show enough to stay on past from the back. Doesn’t look the type to be up to this on its current form.
Expected Finishing Position: 20th
17. Fancy Man (50kg) – Barrier 18
Jockey: Ron Stewart
Gear Change: None
Timeform Rating: 108
Expected Settle Position: Midfield
Lead in form: 6th Caulfield Cup, 3rd Herbert Power
Analysis: Really good run for 6th in the Caulfield Cup. He wasn’t up to going past any horses in the straight but stuck on well considering his rating and weights. Barrier is very tricky in finding the right spot today is the concern. Came out to Australia with a 115+ best run on the record and was good in the Queensland Cup last year.
Expected Finishing Position: 13th
18. Interpretation (50kg) – Barrier 14
Jockey: Teodore Nugent
Gear Change: Equicast first time
Timeform Rating: 113
Expected Settle Position: Back to Midfield
Lead in form: 2nd Geelong Cup, 6th Bart Cummings, 8th Archer Stakes
Analysis: Got home strongly in the Geelong Cup when not suited by the sit sprint tempo behind Onesmoothoperator. Finds a much different race today. Horse looks to be crying out for distance and Good surfaces. Gets both today. Ran 6th in this last year with the same weight so we know the horse will stay and handle tempo being on. Gear change a big concern. You want a horse at their very best and ready to rock going into this race, and clearly there are issues with the horse. Can win, but hard to put anywhere near on top with the issues.
Expected Finishing Position: 6th
19. Manzoice (50kg) – Barrier 8
Jockey: Declan Bates
Gear Change: None
Timeform Rating: 114
Expected Settle Position: On Speed
Lead in form: 7th Moonee Valley Gold Cup, 10th Bart Cummings
Analysis: Victoria Derby winner of 2022. Has not won a race since. Has run some okay placings since behind decent horses and you know the horse will stay, but the questions are more around the class of the horse. Lead in form doesn’t scream Melbourne Cup winner. Expected to stay if given the right run.
Expected Finishing Position: 21st
20. Mostly Cloudy (50kg) – Barrier 16
Jockey: Karis Teetan
Gear Change: Blinkers off first time, Nose Roll first time
Timeform Rating: 105
Expected Settle Position: Out the back
Lead in form: 12th Bart Cummings, 4th Archer Stakes, 4th Quayclean Handicap
Analysis: 6th in the Sydney Cup, the horse should stay the distance. Big odds for a reason, the form is poor at best and the horse hasn’t shown anything to change out mind. Had already qualified without impressing on lead in, but you would have wanted to see a glimpse of something.
Expected Finishing Position: 22nd
21. Positivity (50kg) – Barrier 20
Jockey: Winona Costin
Gear Change: None
Timeform Rating: N/A
Expected Settle Position: Midfield to Forward if possible from barrier.
Lead in form: 8th Moonee Valley Gold Cup, 7th Bart Cummings, 1st MRC Foundation Cup
Analysis: 3YO G3 winner in the SA Fillies Classic over 2500m. Won three runs back over 2000m in Group 3 company at Caulfield. Much harder field today. Two runs since have been poor at best. Ended up skipping the Caulfield Cup. Was poor through the mine last start. Best suited to slow tempos to sit sprint home over distances.
Expected Finishing Position: 23rd
22. Saint George (50kg) – Barrier 9
Jockey: Tyler Schiller
Gear Change: None
Timeform Rating: 113+
Expected Settle Position:
Lead in form: 5th Moonee Valley Gold Cup, 9th Bart Cummings, 4th MRC Foundation Cup
Analysis: Recorded a 3200m Queen’s Vase 2nd last year and looked the type to come out to Australia and win it all, but didn’t progress that way. 5th run of the prep today, the horse handles all conditions but looks best suited on firmer surfaces. No doubt about the horse staying, got back and run on well despite some feet issues at Moonee Valley. No weight, good barrier. Can’t dismiss at all of being a winning chance.
Expected Finishing Position: 14th
23. The Map (50kg) – Barrier 23
Jockey: Rachel King
Gear Change: None
Timeform Rating: N/A
Expected Settle Position: Out the back
Lead in form: 5th Herbert Power Stakes, 6th Geelong Cup
Analysis: Didn’t make the race last year but won the Macca’s Run over 2800m over the carnival. During the Autumn won the Queen Elizabeth Cup over 2500m and the Andrew Ramsden over 2800m. The horse stays. Get back run on type. Has the ability to run top 6 if good enough at weights. Couldn’t back to win.
Expected Finishing Position: 18th
24. Trust In You (50kg) – Barrier 5
Jockey: Mark Du Plessis
Gear Change: None
Timeform Rating: N/A
Expected Settle Position: Normally back, but from Barrier 5 midfield?
Lead in form: 4th The Star St Leger Stakes, 4th Metrop
Analysis: Looks an out and out stayer. Was good in both of his previous races without looking a winning chance. I couldn’t back him to win it all, but could see him being a top 10 betting prospect.
Expected Finishing Position: 24th
Confidence Levels
Top Chances: Absurde
Very High Chances: Vauban, Buckaroo
High Chances: Okita Soushi, Sea King, Interpretation,
Medium Chances: Onesmoothoperator, Warp Speed, Just Fine, Land Legend, Athabascan, Zardozi, Fancy Man, Saint George
Low Chances: Circle of Fire, Kovalica, Sharp ‘N’ Smart, The Map,
Very Low Chances: Knight’s Choice, Valiant King, Manzoice, Mostly Cloudy, Positivity, Trust In You
Trifecta (Wide) – $100 = 32.67%
1st: 1, 2, 9, 12, 15, 18
2nd: 1, 2, 9, 12, 15, 18,
3rd: 1, 2, 7, 9, 10, 12, 15, 17, 18
First 4 (Wide) – $100 = 6.8%
1st: 1, 2, 9, 12, 15, 18
2nd: 1, 2, 9, 12, 15, 18,
3rd: 1, 2, 7, 9, 10, 12, 15, 17, 18
4th: 1, 2, 4, 7, 9, 10, 12, 15, 17, 18
Race Summary
The race has fallen away according to some experts, but I feel the late scratchings and withdrawals from the race have made it more competitive than ever! This isn’t the year at least in my mind, for a horse at $50 to come out of the woodwork and surprise us. There don’t appear to be any hidden gems. We got the early prices on those already.
Buckaroo and Vauban are true favourites for a reason. Buckaroo was a massive run from the back in the Caulfield Cup. You run the race 100 times and it certainly wins at least 20 of them. Most importantly, the style of the racehorse suggests it will stay. The Barrier 21 draw is the only reason the horse won’t start clear favourite. Vauban has been taught to settle since failing as a short-priced runner last year in this race. That may not matter though as the barrier means he will go forward and may need to sit outside the leader if he can’t find a slot in. They both rate well and should stay the distance.
Outside of that, we have a wide-open race. Absurde is the one that I feel is the clear overs in the race. On my data I’ve got the horse improving a stack on the effort last year where he was the best of the on-speed runners and brave all things considered. The barrier maps him well and he will travel like the winner coming into the home straight, I have no doubt on that.
If you twisted my arm for the three best-chance outsiders they would be Just Fine, Athabascan and Fancy Man.
Wishing you a great day on the punt and I hope you jag the Quaddie or First 4 of a lifetime!
Signed,
Drew Patchell